HOW WE WOULD FIGHT CHINA

The Middle East is just a blip. The American military contest with China in the Pacific will define the twenty-first century. And China will be a more formidable adversary than Russia ever was

For some time now no navy or air force has posed a threat to the United States. Our only competition has been armies, whether conventional forces or guerrilla insurgencies. This will soon change. The Chinese navy is poised to push out into the Pacificâ€”and when it does, it will very quickly encounter a U.S. Navy and Air Force unwilling to budge from the coastal shelf of the Asian mainland. It's not hard to imagine the result: a replay of the decades-long Cold War, with a center of gravity not in the heart of Europe but, rather, among Pacific atolls that were last in the news when the Marines stormed them in World War II. In the coming decades China will play an asymmetric back-and-forth game with us in the Pacific, taking advantage not only of its vast coastline but also of its rear baseâ€”stretching far back into Central Asiaâ€”from which it may eventually be able to lob missiles accurately at moving ships in the Pacific. In any naval encounter China will have distinct advantages over the United States, even if it lags in technological military prowess. It has the benefit, for one thing, of sheer proximity. Its military is an avid student of the competition, and a fast learner. It has growing increments of "soft" power that demonstrate a particular gift for adaptation. While stateless terrorists fill security vacuums, the Chinese fill economic ones. All over the globe, in such disparate places as the troubled Pacific Island states of Oceania, the Panama Canal zone, and out-of-the-way African nations, the Chinese are becoming masters of indirect influenceâ€”by establishing business communities and diplomatic outposts, by negotiating construction and trade agreements. Pulsing with consumer and martial energy, and boasting a peasantry that, unlike others in history, is overwhelmingly literate, China constitutes the principal conventional threat to America's liberal imperium.

How should the United States prepare to respond to challenges in the Pacific? To understand the dynamics of this second Cold Warâ€”which will link China and the United States in a future that may stretch over several generationsâ€”it is essential to understand certain things about the first Cold War, and about the current predicament of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the institution set up to fight that conflict. This is a story about military strategy and tactics, with some counterintuitive twists and turns.

How can his son own the website if he'sdead? : ) But seriously,any real war with China would start with Taiwan and end with North Korea. Personally I think a lot of it is posturing so they can get their paws on the island before the 2008 Olympics. They'll do alot of sabre rattling, Bush won't buy into it the way Bubba did, our subs will sink anything they try to send to Taiwan, they'll lose major face because we have naval superiority and sue for peace, the North Korean government will collapse after we bomb them with massive airstrikes, and North Korea will become the world's biggest Wal-Mart, making everybody happy.

Actually, a lot of people are speculating that China will attack Taiwan and then USA or both at the same time

in . . . . 2006.

Giving them enough time to clean up the mess by the Olympics in 2008.

Some think it might be between 2008 and 2012.

I have long felt wary about 2006. And, there is also a Bible code which postulated 2006 as one 'window' of possibility for the next world war. But I think that Code was shorter than the current criteria for a valid code. We shall see.

There may be an additional consideration to factor in. I personally would not fully discount China's understanding of information warfare as part and parcel of any special operations or unconventional warfare tactics that they may employ against Taiwan or even CONUS. Taiwan is the most likely candidate for IW, with all the other goodies that may follow.

Information Warfare is part of the 21st Century battlefield and beyond, and China realizes this. Is it possible that China has the motive, the training and the capability to probe our information, and other, systems?

http://www.sinodefence.com/c4i/default.asp
http://www.sinodefence.com/c4i/ew/ew.asp
http://users.bigpond.net.au/pongrass/security/security.htm (SMH, 8/18/2001)
http://www.specialoperations.com/Foreign/China/IW.htm
http://www.ceip.org/programs/info/infowar.htm
http://www.sans.org/rr/whitepapers/warfare/896.php
http://www.global-defence.com/2000/pages/china.html
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/china/docs/iw_mg_wang.htm
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2003/09/04/2003066387
http://www.gyre.org/news/related/Information+Warfare/China
http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF145/CF145.chap9.pdf
http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/howtomakewar/default.asp?target=HTIW.HTM
http://www.herolibrary.org/p113.htm (Chinese, sic)
http://www.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/news/china-io-2003.htm
http://www.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/china/iw/chininfo.pdf
http://www.infowar-monitor.net/
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=62
http://www.fas.org/news/taiwan/1999/cn-08-17-99-11.htm (1999)
http://www.taiwansecurity.org/AP/2002/AP-072902.htm (AP 2002)
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndu/chinview/chinacont.html
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-info.htm
http://library.nps.navy.mil/home/bibs/IWbooks.htm (IW resources)
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200506/kaplan (Atlantic - Kaplan - 05 - sic)
http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-03-23-voa76.cfm (VOA March 23, 2005)
http://www.jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=408&issue_id=3232&article_id=2369263 (Jamestown February 15, 2005)
http://www.csis.org/burke/hd/#reports (CSIS – resources)
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/FMSOPUBS/ISSUES/china-internet.htm
http://www.sans.org/rr/whitepapers/warfare/ (SANS)
http://www.fofg.org/news/news_story.php?doc_id=782 (May 13, 2004)
http://armedservices.house.gov/issues/opeds/03-09-12tcs-china.html (HASC, 9/12/03)
http://www.space.com/news/china_dod_030801.html (August 1, 2003 – Space)
http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/20030730chinaex.pdf (annual PRC report July 2003)
http://www.military-information-technology.com/article.cfm?DocID=51 (November 15, 2002)
http://www.cia.gov/nic/speeches_telecommunications.html (CIA – Gannon - April 2001)
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-01c.html (Space Daily Jan 2000)
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/BG1340.cfm (Heritage - Wortzel - December 2, 1999)
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/siws/ch1.html (William Fast)
http://www.aracnet.com/~kea/Papers/threat_white_paper.shtml (Kent Anderson, 1998)
http://www.securityfocus.com/library?cat=132&offset=70 (Inf. Ops /IW 1996

I wish you were right about the outcome.

But you're not.

The USA has not begun to hear God on abortion and a list of other 'F U's' we've been sending to God for decades.

God has a list of ways to get our attention and cause the evil in our land to reap what it has sown.

China is only one of them.

Actually, a lot of people are speculating that China will attack Taiwan and then USA or both at the same time in . . . . 2006.

Bookmarking this thread for review in 2006.

We shall see.

Yes we shall.

Old Joke:

China and Russia get into a war. On the first day, China sends 1 million soldiers across the border and Russia kills all of them.

On the second day, China sends 1 million soldiers across the border and Russia kills all of them.

On the third day, China sends 1 million soldiers across the border, Russia kills all of them and China wins the war.

I wish you really did understand.

But, at least, when things start coming true, you'll realize that perhaps some other things I said are also true--such as

GOD ALONE IS OUR REFUGE; OUR EVER PRESENT HELP IN TIME OF TROUBLE. Only an intimate relationship with Him will offer any hope for anyone in coming months and years.

You're right. They're winning the old fashioned way: they're outplaying us. The US needs to play smarter and whine less... ( a few more engineers and a few less basket weaving majors might help too)

If Chinese are studying math, physics and science while our own generation is studying sexual perversion...and if China is a creditor nation while we are a debtor nation...and if China is bigger than us...why wouldn't they kick our asses in a few years?

I don't know what I think/feel about the 2006 potential/prediction.

I certainly feel wary. And, the feeling is above subtle. But it's not absolutely screaming.

I'd probably give it a 35-65% chance that we'll have war with China then.

Part of me thinks they'd wait for a DIMRAT president.

But then they know that Bush and SECDEF are modernizing our armed forces. They might prefer to strike earlier on that score.

I certainly believe they will attack before 2012.

But then I think there's a better than 70-80% chance that Yellowstone will erupt before 2012.

My sensings on such matters is pretty subtle and at such levels it's hard to distinguish between my own ideas and something from study vs something from God etc.

Some things I know will happen absolutely. I just have no doubt. But a sense of timing about such things has never been very good for me nor for anyone I personally know. Maybe it's because timing is somewhat flexible. I don't know.

I have no doubt China will attack the USA. I believe Duduman ismostly accurate. But it's a complex future and I don't think even the most anointed true prophets of God have it all mapped out in much accurate detail at all--yet.

I think they will do better eventually.

If they attack us, it's nuclear war

We did not nuke the taliban, we did not nuke the N. Vietnamese. Politically, you can not respond with a nuke against a conventional attack that is no where near your homeland without becoming a pariah state for decades or even centuries. That is why only 2 nukes have ever been used.

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