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Real wages fall at fastest rate in 14 years
Financial Times ^ | May 10 2005 | Christopher Swann

Posted on 05/10/2005 2:39:12 PM PDT by nickcarraway

Real wages in the US are falling at their fastest rate in 14 years, according to data surveyed by the Financial Times.

Inflation rose 3.1 per cent in the year to March but salaries climbed just 2.4 per cent, according to the Employment Cost Index. In the final three months of 2004, real wages fell by 0.9 per cent.

The last time salaries fell this steeply was at the start of 1991, when real wages declined by 1.1 per cent.

Stingy pay rises mean many Americans will have to work longer hours to keep up with the cost of living, and they could ultimately undermine consumer spending and economic growth.

Many economists believe that in spite of the unexpectedly large rise in job creation of 274,000 in April, the uneven revival in the labour market since the 2001 recession has made it hard for workers to negotiate real improvements in living standards.

Even after last month's bumper gain in employment, there are 22,000 fewer private sector jobs than when the recession began in March 2001, a 0.02 per cent fall. At the same point in the recovery from the recession of the early 1990s, private sector employment was up 4.7 per cent.

Stagnant salaries push more families towards the breadline

A surfeit of workers and the threat of off-shoring are allowing companies to call the shots on wages.

Go there

“There is still little evidence that workers are gaining much traction in their negotiations,” said Paul Ashworth, US analyst at Capital Economics, the consultancy. “If this does not pick up, it raises the prospect of a sharper slowdown in consumer spending than we have been expecting.”

Economists are divided over the best source for measuring pay increases in the US, since the government releases three main measures. A gauge of average hourly earnings is released with the employment report. This rose by 0.3 per cent in both March and April and 0.1 per cent in February. Even with a slight rise in the hours employees are working, from 33.7 to 33.9, this suggests wages are struggling to keep pace with inflation. The gauge covers non-supervisory workers, about 80 per cent of the workforce.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis figures for personal income showed wages rising at close to 6 per cent in 2004 but slowing down since. This measure also showed wages rising by just 0.3 per cent in each of the past 2 months. This is a broader gauge and includes small businesses and professional partnerships, but it measures total corporate wage bill rather than wages per person.

The Employment Cost Index, seen by some as the most reliable measure, excludes overtime and professional partnerships.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: New York
KEYWORDS: demographics; economy; proiductivity; wages
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To: Mulder
Name a country that has more freedom than America

There isn't one.

Really? How do you know? Did you see a comprehensive comparison? I would be very interested in seeing it.

101 posted on 05/10/2005 9:05:41 PM PDT by A. Pole (Ukrainian proverb: "Iak buly moskali, buv khlib na stoli, a iak bude Ukraina, bude bida po kolina")
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham

Intersting link. So USA is number 17 in the table listed there. So?


102 posted on 05/10/2005 9:08:21 PM PDT by A. Pole (Ukrainian proverb: "Iak buly moskali, buv khlib na stoli, a iak bude Ukraina, bude bida po kolina")
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To: radicalliberty
The Net Birth/Death model has been a concept in the making for many years. It was slowly phased in on a monthly basis beginning in 1999, and came into full force in 2001 IIRC.

The Net Birth/Death Model does not contribute significantly to the seasonally adjusted payroll number released each month since it is figured into the non-seasonally adjusted number. 

For example there were 1.179 million non-seasonally adjusted jobs created in April, and the 257k from the Model is formulated in there in a manner I do not understand, but I do not believe that they even just add 257k to the non seasonally adjusted number, I'm pretty sure there is another formula that is used to do this.

It is not true to say that of the seasonally adjusted 274k jobs created in April, 257k came from some model.

Also we have six measures of unemployment, and the third measure, known as "U3" is our official unemployment rate. You can see the alternate measures of unemployment here.

You can also see the unemployment rates of 8 other industrialized countries using US methods here.

103 posted on 05/10/2005 9:12:27 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: America's Resolve
I'm looking to dump the American computer market as quickly as it dumped me.

That's a wise move - because it's only going to get worse. Lots of other people are exiting the computer industry - including students at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. The faculty of many colleges and universities is now heavily weighted with H1B visa holders.

So...what happens to a nation that has no manufacturing infrastructure, has given up its technological edge, and is heavily in debt - in fact, edging up to the nine trillion dollar mark?

Does the term slavery come to mind? That's where we're headed, with wages to match. And it isn't just in the computer fields...it's everywhere.

How do we tell the next generation that we squandered their prosperity - and, perhaps, even their freedom - for cheap trinkets? How do we look in the mirror and admit it even to ourselves? Because that's exactly what we're doing.

104 posted on 05/10/2005 9:13:16 PM PDT by neutrino (Globalization “is the economic treason that dare not speak its name.” (173))
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To: A. Pole

If you're using corruption as a barometer by which to judge the relative freedom enjoyed by the populace of a specific country, then India has a long road to hoe.


105 posted on 05/10/2005 9:13:27 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("What in the world happened to Gerard's tag-line?")
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To: Toddsterpatriot

Building a Whopper is now considered a manufacturing job. You must have missed the memo. Get with the program!


106 posted on 05/10/2005 9:14:02 PM PDT by NewRomeTacitus (Novus ordo seclorum. If I post this enough the Skull & Bones boys might call me up.)
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To: Mulder
When the government/korporate power structure controls 50%+ of the money in this country, that is an absurd statement to defend.

So are you telling me that your decisions in life don't affect your success in life? It must be Bush's fault, or is it Halliburton's.

107 posted on 05/10/2005 9:14:39 PM PDT by Trteamer ( (Eat Meat, Wear Fur, Own Guns, FReep Leftists, Drive an SUV, Drill A.N.W.R., Drill the Gulf, Vote)
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To: A. Pole

You forgot to explain the carts being pulled by donkeys. You can go live in India if you want to, but I'm staying put.


108 posted on 05/10/2005 9:16:52 PM PDT by Trteamer ( (Eat Meat, Wear Fur, Own Guns, FReep Leftists, Drive an SUV, Drill A.N.W.R., Drill the Gulf, Vote)
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To: nickcarraway

More libs talking down the economy.


109 posted on 05/10/2005 9:22:19 PM PDT by balch3
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To: neutrino

Yeah. it's that giant sucking sound. Or whatever he said.


110 posted on 05/10/2005 9:30:28 PM PDT by Concentrate
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To: A. Pole

Offset by falling costs for goods, thanks in part to Walmart.


111 posted on 05/10/2005 9:31:48 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: NewRomeTacitus

It's hard to compete with slavery.


112 posted on 05/10/2005 9:32:02 PM PDT by Concentrate
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham
If you're using corruption as a barometer by which to judge the relative freedom enjoyed by the populace of a specific country, then India has a long road to hoe.

I do not. You can have country with little corruption and little freedom and reverse. It was YOU who provided this link with the table. And USA was on 17 position. So what was your point?

113 posted on 05/10/2005 9:35:37 PM PDT by A. Pole (Ukrainian proverb: "Iak buly moskali, buv khlib na stoli, a iak bude Ukraina, bude bida po kolina")
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To: Trteamer
You forgot to explain the carts being pulled by donkeys. You can go live in India if you want to, but I'm staying put.

You are confusing freedom with wealth. 100 years ago USA was freerer country and much poorer. And there are richer countries than USA.

114 posted on 05/10/2005 9:37:15 PM PDT by A. Pole (Ukrainian proverb: "Iak buly moskali, buv khlib na stoli, a iak bude Ukraina, bude bida po kolina")
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To: Toddsterpatriot
You miss the real meaning of the cartoon. It's not that we are slaves here, so much as that it is impossible to compete with an authoritative nation of slaves, namely China. We cannot compete with China and win.

Unless we become like them.

115 posted on 05/10/2005 9:37:36 PM PDT by Concentrate
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To: Mulder
Don't sweat 'em. Freedom has been traded for security and now we're seeing our future sold for the benefit of an illusion. Take it from the son of a professional magician - those who can will always BS us if it's the easier option.

Davey Crockett, we need you back to address Congress now.

116 posted on 05/10/2005 9:42:41 PM PDT by NewRomeTacitus (Novus ordo seclorum. If I post this enough the Skull & Bones boys might call me up.)
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To: nickcarraway

Well lets see. El Presidente Bush leaves the borders open in a time of War, invites Mexicans to cross it. Slaps the American worker in the face saying their are many jobs they won't fill. And most recently El Presidente now will give our taxes to pay for all the illegals to get free medical at our hospitals.

Bring in 12 million Illegals who work for peanuts. Bring in H1b visas foreigners to take Hi-tech jobs for less pay.

Gee what a surprise that wages are
- a problemo.


117 posted on 05/10/2005 9:45:52 PM PDT by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: NewRomeTacitus; ALOHA RONNIE
It's just wonderful that we give "Most favored Nation" status to a Communist country that has ICBM's aimed at our cities. Just love it!
118 posted on 05/10/2005 9:48:22 PM PDT by Concentrate
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To: neutrino
Does the term slavery come to mind? That's where we're headed, with wages to match. And it isn't just in the computer fields...it's everywhere.

How do we tell the next generation that we squandered their prosperity - and, perhaps, even their freedom - for cheap trinkets? How do we look in the mirror and admit it even to ourselves? Because that's exactly what we're doing.


I think the Bible put it in a more succinct way, "For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
119 posted on 05/10/2005 9:49:52 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (Lutheran, Conservative, Neo-Victorian/Edwardian, Michael Savage in '08! - Any Questions?)
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To: nickcarraway

In further news, good economic numbers are now detrimental to the society


120 posted on 05/10/2005 9:53:06 PM PDT by woofie (I am so not kidding.)
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