Avian Flu Surveillance Project

Various ^ | May 9, 2005 | Vanity

[Dog Gone]

Those who can already afford the seasonal vaccine would have access to it. And the others would again draw the short straw."

Flu shots here range between $5 and maybe as high as $30 dollars per dose. There's no one here that can't afford that. In Africa and some of latin America, it could be a problem.

[Dog Gone]

Wow, if that's confirmed to be avian flu, that's a problem of enormous importance. Let's hope it's something else.

[Kelly_2000]

Glad to contribute :-)

[Kelly_2000]

The problem with these vaccines is the variation globally. If they maintained a common standard in all countries we could get somewhere. A trivalent rather than monovalent vaccine with specialization for 2 subtype and strain specific elements and 1 generic, who create a benchmark efficacy that could be measured and improved Year on year. this of course never happens.

[unseen]

yes let's hope. But what else would cause mass infections over a short time frame. This correlates to the onset of infection in birds.(esp chickens) I.E. mass infections within a short period of time.
The only saving grace so far is that it does not appear very lethal but if this virus recombines with the one in Southern Vietnam that has close to 100% fatality then we are in a world of hurt. Regardless, it looks like our economy is going to take a major hit next flu season might be a good time to invest in companies that make hospital beds and respirators.

[Kelly_2000]

"but if this virus recombines with the one in Southern Vietnam"

All it would take was a very small amount of porcine hosts to become infected with both subtypes.

[unseen]

Yes it would not take much work to get a very nasty virus coming out of Asia next fall. I know Marburg is going nuts now but I really think this virus is the killer that we have all been scared of seeing. I read about the Spanish FLU of 1918. Over 40,000,000 dead. Schools closed, Events Canceled, Panic in the streets. Morgues over filling. That was when the population was alot less then toady's. I think around 1900 there was 100,000,000 million people in USA now there are close to 300,000,000. (As an aside 1900 was the time when the government put a cap on the number of house seats, so today your vote is three times less powerful then a USA's citizen of 1900 was. Then people wonder way the government doesn't give a crap about the average guy. Increase the House seats to 1300 and see how many of these bills get through. Hell companies would have to buy off 3 times as many politicians. They would all go bankrupt. LOL) So if a virus like the Spanish Flu hit expect deaths to be three times higher. In other parts of the world and the huge overpopulation of some cities expect higher figures. Mexico City, Rio, Tokyo, Cairo, and several cities in India and Africa to name just a few. Air traffic would come to a halt, commerce would shut down. The cocoon effect would come back in the USA three times has powerful as after 9/11. With this flu going on, Marburg, polio reemerging, Sars, AIDS, it almost feels like one of the four horsemen are loose.

[unseen]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110503/H5N1_Recombination_Serious.html


More troubling news. It would appear that WHO as they are doing in Angola are waiting until after the virus is endemic to a region before getting concerned. I believe in a proactive approach. When you are talking about fifty million dead you should fall on the side of caution not 100% concrete evidence

[clarissaexplainsitall]

A bird crapped on my head the other day. Should I be nervous?

[Kelly_2000]

"With this flu going on, Marburg, polio reemerging, Sars, AIDS, it almost feels like one of the four horsemen are loose."

amen to that

[Dog Gone]

Bird flu: sample dispute complicates tracking

Evidence that people are now transmitting the bird flu virus to others increases the likelihood of a human pandemic. Keeping track of how the virus is mutating is crucial to being able to predict such a pandemic, but this requires the continued analysis of large numbers of samples from bird flu patients.

In this week's Nature, Declan Butler reports that the World Health Organization (WHO), which is in charge of the global effort against the virus, has so far received just six samples, the last of which was sent in October 2004.

The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), which should be collecting samples to track the infection in poultry in Asia, has not been given any new samples either. Not only that, but the WHO has accused the FAO of not sharing what it does have.

An FAO representative said that countries are not supplying samples partly because they lack the resources to transport such material safely, but also because they are reluctant to release information that the press might make public or other scientists might take credit for.

While the FAO is trying to negotiate the terms of using national samples, the WHO is addressing themselves directly to government health representatives rather than relying on its fellow UN agency.

So far, Vietnam has agreed to send samples, which WHO officials hope will encourage others to do the same.

Science and Development Network (with link to the Nature article)

[Dog Gone]

TORONTO (CP) - It's impossible to say whether recent changes in both the pattern of human cases of avian influenza and in the genetic makeup of the circulating viruses mean the risk of a flu pandemic has risen, the head of the World Health Organization's influenza program said Wednesday.

Dr. Klaus Stohr said experts can't make that judgment, because too little scientific information is flowing out of Southeast Asia to the WHO's network of reference laboratories.

"The data in humans is inconclusive and is too incomplete to draw any profound conclusions," Stohr said from Hanoi, Vietnam, where he is attending a second meeting of experts in as many weeks on the H5N1 problem.

"But putting one and one together, seeing a virus mutating and seeing some appearance of change (in the pattern of infection) is certainly something one has to investigate further. And that cannot happen without more viruses and antigenic data."

The agency has recently acquired some new genetic information that may help it in efforts to reassess the risk posed by the H5N1 virus, he suggested.

Using RNA fragments provided by a lab in Vietnam, a WHO reference lab was able to compile genetic sequences on 12 new samples of the virus. And officials in Cambodia recently gave WHO a number of isolates, including one from a human case. That person went on to die from the infection.

Analysis of the new data confirms the virus is changing. But what that signifies remains a mystery, Stohr said.

"We see an amino acid changing here and there. But whether it's relevant, if it increases the pathogenicity or increases the transmissibility of the virus, we don't know," he said.

"A profound risk assessment has still to be made before anything can be said about in which direction the changes are going."

Canadian Press

[Judith Anne]

WHO is doing some interesting research, but I actually prefer the CDC on this H5N1 virus.

I agree with unseen and Kelly_2000, there is a major concern in this country about the avian flu problem. Chances are we will see it here, this fall. I don't expect a vaccine to be ready in any quantity until Jan or Feb 2006, and if supplies of Tamiflu are short, there is likely to be fairly high morbidity and even mortality.

Folks can survive this flu with treatment, but as we learned with SARs, there are only about 105,000 mechanical ventilators in this country, and with a normal flu season, almost all of them are in use.

A heavier than normal flu season with a more dangerous flu could pretty well shut down most non-essential activities, this fall.

I am NOT being an alarmist.

[Dog Gone]

My concern is that if they're not getting the samples they need from Asia, then an effective vaccine is not being developed at this time.

The virus has mutated and human to human spread is now occurring. I'd like to see the mortality rate on cases that are pinned to that origin.

I haven't seen any information which indicates that a vaccine that is even partially effective is being produced today. We've pretty much run out of time.

[Judith Anne]

Here's where things stand now (from Recombinomics):

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110503/H5N1_Recombination_Serious.html

"As noted above, the 2005 genes have changed. Genes do not change via reassortment, which merely shuffles existing genes. The Z genotype is defined by reassortment, and the vast majority of the current H5N1 isolates are the Z genotype, including isolates from Japan, Korea, Indonesia and many provinces in China. These H5N1 isolates have not been reported to cause fatal human infections. However, the Z genotypes in Vietnam and Thailand have caused infections with a high case fatality rate. It is the region-specific differences in the genes that are associated with the reported fatal infections in humans."

In other words, nobody has any answers. Without specific information, no vaccine can even begin to be manufactured. With AT LEAST 6 months required for vaccine development, and more for mass manufacture, I don't look for much help from science, frankly.

[Dog Gone]

Then we're back to Post 35 where we pretty much have to hope for dumb luck. We might as well disband WHO and save the money and spend it on caskets for all the good they do.

This is just incompetence.

[wildandcrazyrussian]

Please add me to your ping list (I think I may already be on for the Marburg surveillance list). Thanks!

[Dog Gone]

I don't see you on either ping list, but you'll be added.

[unseen]

This is the UN Dog, did you expect anything else. Since the end of WW2 and the formation of the UN except for the Korea conflict (which the Russians sat out) the UN has been a total failure. To think a large portion of our population in the US would like to put us under the UN's mandates is scary. I can understand Europe and the rest of the world. They are scared of our power but when half of the USA population turns in on itself and self destructs that is insanity. The UN is a hopeless failure. I say cut ALL funding and VETO everything that goes into the Security Council and KICK them out of NY. That is PRIME A real estate after all. ENOUGH is ENOUGH. And while we are at it. Lets take back Washington DC too.

[Dog Gone]

I don't want to turn this thread into an anti-UN screed, even though they deserve it on so many fronts. I guess I never expected the UN to protect my family.

I did, prior to this, think that the WHO did at least some limited amount of good in coordinating global health issues. I thought they could work more effectively with anti-US third world countries than the CDC could, for example.

Seems I was wrong, and I hope the CDC didn't expect anything from them, either. Really hoping.