Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
Flu shots here range between $5 and maybe as high as $30 dollars per dose. There's no one here that can't afford that. In Africa and some of latin America, it could be a problem.
Wow, if that's confirmed to be avian flu, that's a problem of enormous importance. Let's hope it's something else.
Glad to contribute :-)
All it would take was a very small amount of porcine hosts to become infected with both subtypes.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110503/H5N1_Recombination_Serious.html
More troubling news. It would appear that WHO as they are doing in Angola are waiting until after the virus is endemic to a region before getting concerned. I believe in a proactive approach. When you are talking about fifty million dead you should fall on the side of caution not 100% concrete evidence
A bird crapped on my head the other day. Should I be nervous?
amen to that
Evidence that people are now transmitting the bird flu virus to others increases the likelihood of a human pandemic. Keeping track of how the virus is mutating is crucial to being able to predict such a pandemic, but this requires the continued analysis of large numbers of samples from bird flu patients. In this week's Nature, Declan Butler reports that the World Health Organization (WHO), which is in charge of the global effort against the virus, has so far received just six samples, the last of which was sent in October 2004. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), which should be collecting samples to track the infection in poultry in Asia, has not been given any new samples either. Not only that, but the WHO has accused the FAO of not sharing what it does have. An FAO representative said that countries are not supplying samples partly because they lack the resources to transport such material safely, but also because they are reluctant to release information that the press might make public or other scientists might take credit for. While the FAO is trying to negotiate the terms of using national samples, the WHO is addressing themselves directly to government health representatives rather than relying on its fellow UN agency. So far, Vietnam has agreed to send samples, which WHO officials hope will encourage others to do the same. Science and Development Network (with link to the Nature article) |
Dr. Klaus Stohr said experts can't make that judgment, because too little scientific information is flowing out of Southeast Asia to the WHO's network of reference laboratories.
"The data in humans is inconclusive and is too incomplete to draw any profound conclusions," Stohr said from Hanoi, Vietnam, where he is attending a second meeting of experts in as many weeks on the H5N1 problem.
"But putting one and one together, seeing a virus mutating and seeing some appearance of change (in the pattern of infection) is certainly something one has to investigate further. And that cannot happen without more viruses and antigenic data."
The agency has recently acquired some new genetic information that may help it in efforts to reassess the risk posed by the H5N1 virus, he suggested.
Using RNA fragments provided by a lab in Vietnam, a WHO reference lab was able to compile genetic sequences on 12 new samples of the virus. And officials in Cambodia recently gave WHO a number of isolates, including one from a human case. That person went on to die from the infection.
Analysis of the new data confirms the virus is changing. But what that signifies remains a mystery, Stohr said.
"We see an amino acid changing here and there. But whether it's relevant, if it increases the pathogenicity or increases the transmissibility of the virus, we don't know," he said.
"A profound risk assessment has still to be made before anything can be said about in which direction the changes are going."
WHO is doing some interesting research, but I actually prefer the CDC on this H5N1 virus.
I agree with unseen and Kelly_2000, there is a major concern in this country about the avian flu problem. Chances are we will see it here, this fall. I don't expect a vaccine to be ready in any quantity until Jan or Feb 2006, and if supplies of Tamiflu are short, there is likely to be fairly high morbidity and even mortality.
Folks can survive this flu with treatment, but as we learned with SARs, there are only about 105,000 mechanical ventilators in this country, and with a normal flu season, almost all of them are in use.
A heavier than normal flu season with a more dangerous flu could pretty well shut down most non-essential activities, this fall.
I am NOT being an alarmist.
The virus has mutated and human to human spread is now occurring. I'd like to see the mortality rate on cases that are pinned to that origin.
I haven't seen any information which indicates that a vaccine that is even partially effective is being produced today. We've pretty much run out of time.
Here's where things stand now (from Recombinomics):
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110503/H5N1_Recombination_Serious.html
"As noted above, the 2005 genes have changed. Genes do not change via reassortment, which merely shuffles existing genes. The Z genotype is defined by reassortment, and the vast majority of the current H5N1 isolates are the Z genotype, including isolates from Japan, Korea, Indonesia and many provinces in China. These H5N1 isolates have not been reported to cause fatal human infections. However, the Z genotypes in Vietnam and Thailand have caused infections with a high case fatality rate. It is the region-specific differences in the genes that are associated with the reported fatal infections in humans."
In other words, nobody has any answers. Without specific information, no vaccine can even begin to be manufactured. With AT LEAST 6 months required for vaccine development, and more for mass manufacture, I don't look for much help from science, frankly.
This is just incompetence.
Please add me to your ping list (I think I may already be on for the Marburg surveillance list). Thanks!
I don't see you on either ping list, but you'll be added.
I did, prior to this, think that the WHO did at least some limited amount of good in coordinating global health issues. I thought they could work more effectively with anti-US third world countries than the CDC could, for example.
Seems I was wrong, and I hope the CDC didn't expect anything from them, either. Really hoping.
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