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To: Dog Gone

WHO is doing some interesting research, but I actually prefer the CDC on this H5N1 virus.

I agree with unseen and Kelly_2000, there is a major concern in this country about the avian flu problem. Chances are we will see it here, this fall. I don't expect a vaccine to be ready in any quantity until Jan or Feb 2006, and if supplies of Tamiflu are short, there is likely to be fairly high morbidity and even mortality.

Folks can survive this flu with treatment, but as we learned with SARs, there are only about 105,000 mechanical ventilators in this country, and with a normal flu season, almost all of them are in use.

A heavier than normal flu season with a more dangerous flu could pretty well shut down most non-essential activities, this fall.

I am NOT being an alarmist.


73 posted on 05/12/2005 4:15:31 PM PDT by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: Judith Anne
My concern is that if they're not getting the samples they need from Asia, then an effective vaccine is not being developed at this time.

The virus has mutated and human to human spread is now occurring. I'd like to see the mortality rate on cases that are pinned to that origin.

I haven't seen any information which indicates that a vaccine that is even partially effective is being produced today. We've pretty much run out of time.

74 posted on 05/12/2005 4:22:15 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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