Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
Be ever Vigilant.....And HIT that Abuse Button! It never hurts to put something in front of the mods and ask them to evaluate it or ask them to put a "knock it off" post on a thread.
The mods can't manage what they dont' know about :^)
MadIvan, I have been a fan of yours since way back when. I shall miss you. I understand completely why you feel that you must leave. Best to you and yours in the future.
The most right wing part of London is the suburb of Chingford in Essex. They return consistently, the most right wing MPs - Norman Tebbit, Mrs. Thatcher's axe man, was from that constituency, as is Iain Duncan Smith. I believe they kill, roast and eat socialists there.
Interestingly it's not the richest part of London either.
Regards, Ivan
Don't take yourself so seriously and hit the grin button.
:-)
Good!
Never let the negative bastards wear you down in life and on the internet.
I love good news on a Saturday morning.
"I love good news on a Saturday morning."
Right on.
Ivan is a treasure for us who come to Free Republic. He has a great handle on what is really going on in the UK.
When one of the UK's left wing rags like the Guardian posts its usual lies, Ivan is often right there, telling us the reality and truth.
Not far from me Chingford.
Perhaps it's not the richest area, but it's not the poorest either. It's a nice leafy middle class suburb.
I think their selection of right wing MPs has more to do with the local Conservative association than the electorate.
MI, please stay with us. You have been here long enough to know that FR falls apart between every crisis. It's sort of like a family. We fight among ourselves over trivia when we have no major crisis to confront, but we pull together when we need to. The reason for this is because most here are conservatives and are argumentative (free spirited) by nature. We need your valuable input from across the pond. Why not stay and do what so many of us do? Stay away from the flame wars. When FR comes together to address a serious issue there is not more effective venue on the web. Besides, I have considered you a good FRiend for years and I don't like losing my friends.
Not a Magnum Opus, but sadly, an Opus nontheless.
PLEASE don't go. We need your perspective from across the pond.
And I would like to think you get something back from us real FReepers as opposed to the jerks you have encountered. They are a smaller number than you think.
"Have you noticed that quidnunc, the fella I was referring to in post 9, has just been banned?"
Woo-Hoo! And Everton have just more or less sealed their Champions' League spot. Today is a very good day.
Now I'm glad that I persevered through all those posts. I DO hope that you stay with us.
Granted, I am biased from my view of city politics in general here across the Atlantic. Detroit swings my whole state democrat.
I'm not being abused ~ I don't insane people very seriously. :)
Perfect! ;)
I actually like some of U2's older stuff.
Too bad Phil Lynott's past on, since Thin Lizzy was a great band.
Hooray! You're staying!
Yes, some of U2's older stuff is good, and actually I don't really hate Bono's politics (I was joking really) - he works with Bush, instead of complaining about him, and he is on the record saying "The Right aren't the bad guys, you know" - he understands there is nothing sinister about our ideology!
Ivan, glad to hear it, never mind the small minded people!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.