Blair may decide to quit sooner than expected

The Daily Telegraph ^ | May 6, 2005 | Rachel Sylvester

[MadIvan]

Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.

His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.

Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.

Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.

Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.

Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.

"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."

Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.

"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."

However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.

The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.

Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.

These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.

Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.

Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.

Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.

This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.

At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.

Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.

Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.

In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.

[A CA Guy]

Why does having a slim or no majority as Prime Minister require him to stand down sooner?

Seems he was just elected to his 3rd term by a choice of the people and to quit the job without doing so to avoid some scandal seems retarded!

[A CA Guy]

Excuse me, I haven't heard anyone express anything but our love for Great Britain.
Nobody equates Britain to France that I have read here.

Granted, you folks have horrid liberals around as do we that we both need to battle, but almost all Americans love the British people and consider them like family across the sea.

Did you consider the people who you said made bad statements could have been disrupters or grade-A turds floating around, and NOT representative if the whole at all?

Seems you should not take the floating turds here and there so serious when the vast remainder are so numberous and profoundly your good friends.

God Bless Britain.

[Dan from Michigan]

while the British and Irish people have to endure the tightest gun regulations in the Western World - we are sitting ducks against both the EU and the IRA!!!!!

Almost the tighest gun regulations - Washington DC has a total ban.......:)

I don't want to dodge point three(US History is my strongest subject), but I also don't want to unwillingly stir up a hornet's nest, and get sidetracked from the point of the thread.

So I'll instead thank Great Britain for Led Zepplin, Pink Floyd, Robin Trower, Motorhead, AC/DC (Scotland Via Austrailia), and Iron Maiden, then apologize for Madonna and Eminem coming from my state.

[Torie]

while it was the Londons ... that went labor.

Not exactly:

The silk stocking districts of London still vote Tory in fairly hefty numbers. And lots of those "rural" districts are really suburban or exurban districts of cities, and high income. There are really not that many truly rural and small town constituencies in England. Still it is true that New Labor has cut into the urban upper middle and middle class vote. That is because they no longer represent much of a real threat to their standard of living.

Maybe Madivan can add his own more knowledgeable perspective on this.

[budwiesest]

Sad to hear. My Dad did a number of takeoffs and landings off your rock. With Spitfires as escorts on his way to Germany, I'm certain he was relieved to have them there.

Some of my favorite pictures are of my dad and his crew in front of the Fortress while in England.

PS, did you get your screen name from "The Hunt for Red October"?

[Hildy]

It's been a tough year here on FR. The bigots, blowhards and high and mighty seem to be winning...and the good ones leaving. I'm so sorry to see another casualty. I'm warning you this is a hard habit to break though. I hope you'll come back from time to time. I'll miss you.

[FreeReign]

So, enough. It's been a good run of nearly 7 years. But it's time to walk away before I see a site which I have loved, laughed with and enjoyed greatly, degenerate any further into a propaganda outfit against my first, truest love, the country in which I live.

The door is wide open. The "opinion shapers" are in. Some here are falling for it.

It's not only about dividing English conservatives and U.S. conservatives. You can pick any subject and the dividers will be out in force. If they have their way it will be even worse over the next three years. At some point it becomes a waste of time to participate. It becomes nothing more than spam.

People who really need to spend more time with their real life are considering it. Off you go and regards.

[elhombrelibre]

I'm busy and away from the US now, but do hope our friend MadIvan stays on board.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France.

Ouch. I can't imagine a worse barb thrown your way. In any case, I'm glad you stayed. A few good people have left recently, it would be a shame to add to the total.

[pau1f0rd]

Mad Ivan's blog is at http://www.theringwraith.com/

[wardaddy]

Geez Ivan.

I'm from Mississippi.

The sanctimonious here point their fingers at my home state every chance they get.

This is a hard room here no doubt.

Your threads are quite good.

We need Goth.

Rule Britannia!

[kanawa]

Please stay.
Your intelligence, civil demeanor and insights epitomize all that is good about FR.

[MadIvan]

The data actually suggests that London was the happiest hunting ground for the Tories in this election: they picked off Putney, Wimbledon, Enfield Southgate, Hammersmith & Fulham and nearly took Battersea. Battersea is particularly shocking as it's usually fairly strong for Labour.

Outlying suburbs such as Ilford North, Welwyn Hatfield and Hemel Hempstead also went Tory in a big way.

Where Labour did well was its traditional heartlands, in the industrial north, where the Tories usually don't make a showing - however, the Lib Dems managed to pick off seats in Manchester and Leeds.

Overall, it was a bad night for Labour all around - just not catastrophic. This is the beginning of the end for the Labour Government.

Best Regards, Ivan

[BykrBayb]

I would have been begging you to stay, but I got here late. I'm sure glad you're staying.

[Oztrich Boy]

Now if you put up a NASA thread about the moon, somebody immediately posts that it's too bad that Terri can't see the moon but she was murdered.

Words fail

Astrologer to sue NASA

"Do comets have rights in Floriduh? Nobody else does."

[BykrBayb]

Did you bother reading the post that I was replying to, or did you just haphazardly pick someone to start another flame war against?

[BykrBayb]

Btw, jumping threads to start a flame war is against the rules. I don't even know who you are, but you obviously know who I am. These coordinated attacks against legitimate Freepers by the WPPFF are getting tiresome. Why don't you just start your own website and attack Freepers from there?

[Irish_Thatcherite]

So I'll instead thank Great Britain for Led Zepplin, Pink Floyd, Robin Trower, Motorhead, AC/DC (Scotland Via Austrailia), and Iron Maiden, then apologize for Madonna and Eminem coming from my state.

True, don't forget The Beatles and The Rolling Stones, while we're at it, I'll apologise for Bono.

[Clemenza]

1. I've always found it odd that Chelsea was (supposedly) a Torie area, as most of us in the states who know it at all know it for its role in the 1970s punk and fashion scene.

2. Does anyone know if there is a section in the greater London conuberation that has a large number of police officers? Is there a London equivalent of Staten Island, which votes to the Right poltically due to the large number of cops?

[M Kehoe]

Good afternoon. I'm sorry to see an opus by you. You're a good FReeper, and I'd hate to see you go.

If you leave, the bastards have won a small victory. If you stay, we both can spit in their eye.

And in the fwiw department, I'm proud and grateful to have Great Britain as a friend and ally.

5.56mm