Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
I understand your feelings, Ivan ... but I sure hope that you will reconsider and stay
You are a great asset to FR and will be surely missed if you go
I think you're wrong. And I know for fact that many others see it the way I do.
There is a disagreeable aura here now. Evidently you don't perceive it.
I hope you'll reconsider.
add another 98 lurker in support ,Ivan.............
You're not alone ;-(
Remember Blue = Conservative/Tory.
Red = Labour.
Orange = Liberal-Democrat.
Nooooo, Ivan, don't leave. Please, just ignore the troublemakers. We need you here.
When some of the FR 'big names' began to leave I wrote it off as normal come and go, but if you go Ivan, I will have to reevaluate. I second the idea of a blog.
Sorry to see you go. Like you, I have noticed how xenophobic towards all Brits many on FR have become and have been considering doing the same for some time. Perpahs you are right, now is the time to bid farewell.
Anyway all the best mate and hope you find somewhere to go where you won't be flayed just for being British.
There's a difference between spirited, informed and intelligent debate and mindless bashing.
FR has degenerated into the latter after a long run of hosting the former.
Oh, IVAN! You are SO right about what has happened to FR.......even since I joined slightly more than four years ago.
Why is this bigotry and evil not controlled? Why are these people allowed to post their vile, hatred without consequence?
There are many fine Freepers who are either leaving or hiding because of the mindless vitriol and hatred.
THINGS ARE OUT OF CONTROL!
Ivan..........you live in a FANTASTIC country (our daughter is living there now, and loves it). Britain has been a staunch ally, and a good friend to us. It is not perfect.....BUT NEITHER ARE WE!
Thank you, Ivan, for your incredible contributions to this site.
It is poorer for your loss.
While I seldom post here, I have enjoyed reading your posts. Your love for Britain and support of the USA is much appreciated.
I am another who totally understands your desire to put your energies to better use than sparring with perpetual malcontents. Deny them an audience. Negativity, diviseness, and rancor appear to be their 'oxygen'.
I send prayers and good wishes in all that you do and wherever you're led.
K1
Mike
Ivan, you were the very first poster I ever posted to on FR. I asked you what a ping list was and after receiving your typical gracious explanation, asked to be put on yours. I loved the articles you posted and insights you brought to the forum. Still do.
I understand your criticisms and also believe they are valid. I do ask you to reconsider or at least try just a temporary break, though.
I'm afraid the dark forces that are at work on FR will win if enough of us leave. And they don't deserve to win.
Regardless of your decision, I am proud to call you FRiend. Changing taglines back to one of my early ones just for you Ivan. Meant it then, and still do.
Prairie
Well, that is allowed from many directions.
There are many fine Freepers who are either leaving or hiding because of the mindless vitriol and hatred.
Like that which was directed at those who thought Laura Bush might have been out of line with her comments? A couple of those posters took their comments too far, and that somehow seemed to justify open season on anyone who thought Laura crossed a line.
From Terri Schiavo to immigration to Laura's jokes, folks now seem to believe that the end justifies the means, and anyone who disagrees with them is a closet Democrat who needs to be shouted down like a conservative speaker at a college campus. I feel strongly about immigration, and think Bush is dead wrong on that subject, but I will listen to arguments on the other side made in good faith - as I also try to keep those on my side of the debate within the forum boundaries.
You want civility to improve? The best way is to demand it of those who are allied with you. Mobs form when no one in the crowd arrests the transcendence into incivility and then thuggishness.
Never give in--never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.
--Sir Winston Churchill,
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