Blair may decide to quit sooner than expected

The Daily Telegraph ^ | May 6, 2005 | Rachel Sylvester

[MadIvan]

Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.

His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.

Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.

Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.

Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.

Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.

"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."

Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.

"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."

However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.

The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.

Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.

These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.

Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.

Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.

Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.

This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.

At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.

Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.

Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.

In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.

[firebrand]

Don't go. You have a full chapter of Anglophiles Anonymous on this forum. Just tell the crumb bums off.

[Chunga]

Bologna. Your post is a case study in miscomprehension and misdirection. "Level of vitriol?"

Calling Laura Bush a slut is measured debate? You take the opposite side of that level of sleaze to task? Nice work dirtboy!

I leave this thread to those wishing Ivan well, which I also do.

[Lando Lincoln]

That was a cheap shot without evidence.

Not really since it is my opinion - and expressed as such. ......But, if you read the discourse on Mrs. Bush recently; the obscure, tangential way TS can be brought up; the Kansas education debate, etc...... And - I'll risk sounding cute or coy here - evangelical can mean other, perhaps more abstract things. Read the immigration threads and what kind of response any FReeper will receive should they make the mistake of agreeing with current policy. The caustic passion displayed is truly amazing - and far too often, personal. It's a shame.

Lando

[snugs]

So in a nutshell because we have more strict gun control than to you it equates with having no rights and freedom?

[unbalanced but fair]

I totally agree with everything you said. I really believe that many of the people who have left simply got tired of wading through the paranoia and rantings that are carried into any thread and often had nothing to do with the topic. Or they got tired of trying to debate a topic where the other side believed that any debate was "evil."

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Dang! Our door is always open for you!

I move that, should MadIvan post again in the future,

any invidious allusion to Reply #1 of this thread be recognized by the Moderators as an abuse to be instantly expunged from such thread.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Ivan, please reconsider this...you're one of FR's best.

[cooper72]

When it comes to American and British relations, all we should have to say is "World War II" and the British should say "Thank you, what do you need us to do?" That is a debt which will not soon be repaid, unless you think that living under Hitler's thumb would have somehow been preferable.

It always amazes me this argument. Why should Britain and the rest of the commonwealth apologise or kiss-ass because they fought Nazi Germany alone for two years when the rest of the world stood and watched?

[snugs]

And they were damned glad to get out of the coal mines to America where they could own their own land,

I bet if a poll was taken and the percentage worked out of how many people in Britain own their own property/home and then the same survey taken in America I think you would be very surprised in the result

[Lead Moderator]

Well said.

[dirtboy]

Calling Laura Bush a slut is measured debate?

That was one poster who said that, was taken to task and who subsquently apologized. However, the attacks were against everyone who thought Laura might have been out of line - and they were vicious.

You take the opposite side of that level of sleaze to task? Nice work dirtboy!

Ah, so you use what one or two posters said to brand the entire other side. Nice propaganda technique, Chunga.

Have a nice day.

[Howlin]

I don't understand why the pro-Greer people are trolling MadIvan's threads..

"Your Honor, I'd like to have this post marked as an exhibit."

[Eva]

I'm sorry to see you leave, I've enjoyed your posts from across the pond. It sounds to me as though you have run into some of the one issue Freepers and just plain disruptors who post purposely contrary and inflamatory statements to cause trouble between Freepers. There has been a large proliferation of these posters of late. I even received a threat from one after I exposed his disruptive posts and multiple identities.

[snugs]

Here are the Scotish results

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_7.stm

[Eurotwit]

"So all Welshmen live down the mines"

They do. Ali G told me so :-)

[Chunga]

Can you not read? I didn't brand the entire other side. I said "some" of the posters sliming Laura were Democrats. "Some." As in "some."

"Some" doesn't equate to "the entire other side."

Posting to you is wasting my time.

Good luck Ivan and thanks for the posts from the British papers, which I read ravenously.

[Gritty]

Please reconsider your decision to leave. I have enjoyed and respected your comments, presence, viewpoint and overall common sense on this board - even when I didn't always agree with your every position. We need people like you here.

[Irish_Thatcherite]

It always amazes me this argument. Why should Britain and the rest of the commonwealth apologise or kiss-ass because they fought Nazi Germany alone for two years when the rest of the world stood and watched?

Exactly, Ireland disgraced Herself by staying neutral, but your "blood, toil, sweat and tears" kept the Nazis out Ireland.

Cooper, we had a couple of disagreements before, but I agree with you here, and I hope your fellow countryman stays!

[blackie]

"Anyhow, I need to get over there to see the Goodwood Festival one of these days...."

Roger that and the Isle of Man TT Race!