Blair may decide to quit sooner than expected

The Daily Telegraph ^ | May 6, 2005 | Rachel Sylvester

[MadIvan]

Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.

His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.

Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.

Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.

Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.

Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.

"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."

Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.

"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."

However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.

The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.

Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.

These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.

Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.

Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.

Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.

This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.

At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.

Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.

Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.

In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.

[MadIvan]

Now for some analysis...I do believe that Blair will stand down in about a year. He is likely to work out an arrangement by which he can depart office on a positive note - i.e., enacting some form of legislation of which he can be proud - and then he'll retire quietly to the back benches.

So apart from Charles Kennedy, it appears to be "all change". Michael Howard is leaving, Tony Blair is leaving...as such, it seems an ideal time to walk away from Free Republic.

It's not my intention to write a magnum opus, but to put it very simply, it is extremely difficult to be a patriotic British person on this board. I thought that the brotherhood as expressed on September 11th and during the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq, would cement the bond between our two countries. However, it appears that this has had the opposite effect in so far as this site is concerned. There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France.

A few of you have been kind enough to assist me in trying to set these people straight. However, I do not sign online to find more heat than light. I am not interested in long, protacted struggles with the ignorant and the bigoted. I have better things to do with my life, and much more enjoyable ways to spend my time than deal with flame wars in the name of my country whose blood sacrifice should put its character and reputation beyond the question of simple minded miscreants. To my horror, I've also found that some of these miscreants were actually former friends of mine who have stabbed my country in the back.

So, enough. It's been a good run of nearly 7 years. But it's time to walk away before I see a site which I have loved, laughed with and enjoyed greatly, degenerate any further into a propaganda outfit against my first, truest love, the country in which I live.

Farewell.

Regards, Ivan

[Russ]

I have been here even longer than you and your observations are correct. I, too, have been considering walking away from FR and finding a new venue from which to find insight into the news from a conservative perspective. I wish you well!

[MadIvan]

Ping

[mikesmad]

Sorry to see you leave. Don't let the idiots get you down. I don't post much any more either, mainly from a lack of time to follow through on discussions, but I also ignore certain posters or "types" of threads because you cannot have a rational discussion with some people on certain subjects.

I recognize the difference in our countries but I also applaud your nation, and Australia, as our two best friends in the world (maybe our only two true friends).

[OldFriend]

You are a beacon of light here, please do reconsider.

[smiley]

....MadIvan....please don't let a few bad apples dictate to you how you should run your life and express your opinions...we Freepers here depend on your political views from across the pond and we want you to stay! Leaders don't buckle under the ignorance of others.....so get up off your knees and start yelling. :)

[Arizona]

I don't post very often, but have to say that you're one of my favorites here. You've offered great insight and comments and you'll be greatly missed if you leave. I understand that the idiots can make life miserable; unfortunately they seem to be everywhere. Take a break, but please do come back.

az

[Texas2step]

There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France.

Ivan. Don't leave. These people are a tiny minority of the people on this board. The majority of folks at FR know what sacrifice GB has made to be our friends.

Take a break for a while, maybe, but don't leave. You have great political insight and provide excellent well thought out comments. FR needs someone in your position to keep us informed of what's going on on your side of the pond.

I believe it's easier to see those who are negative and ill-informed than to see everyone who supports our point of view. There's definitely some kooks on the board, but you can find that on almost every topic.

Besides, this is pretty lame for an opus, so if you're going to leave, you have to give us a better opus than this. A person of your qualities should provide a real opus rather than something like this half-hidden opus. :-)

[David Hunter]

it is extremely difficult to be a patriotic British person on this board. I thought that the brotherhood as expressed on September 11th and during the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq, would cement the bond between our two countries. However, it appears that this has had the opposite effect in so far as this site is concerned. There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France.

I agree with your analysis entirely Ivan. One poster, in particular, seems to spend his life accusing the British of antisemitism, cowardice, antiAmericanism etc, and usually the only evidence offered are biased and incorrect foreign produced opinion articles.

As you say, you could spend most of your free time correcting people like that and they still wouldn't concede that they are being untruthful.

I wish you the best of luck for your future.

Best regards,

David

[Tamberlane]

There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France.

Indeed, to many here, all of Europe is the same, and by definition decadent, cowardly, and treacheous. These make little or no distinction between the European countries, nor will they let facts get in the way of their prejudice. I am sorry to see you leave but I do understand why you feel as you do.

[GOP_Lady]

Oh, no, MadIvan -- please don't go.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Please don't leave. The board will be a poorer place without you and your insight.

There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France.

And they should be smacked. I understand your frustration but wish that you would stay. I have learned more about the UK and about their politics and current culture from you then from any other person.

Please stay.

[David Hunter]

MadIvan is leaving FR. Those of you who have enjoyed his posts might appreciate this opportunity to say goodbye.

[Miss Marple]

I hope you reconsider, but I understand your position. I don't post as much here as I used to, for a similar reason.

You have freepmail.

[jpl]

I hope you'll reconsider your decision. Blair has indeed been a great friend and true ally in this struggle. I'm glad that he got reelected, even though I might not agree with him on everything, and we do tend to get carried away here sometimes, especially with the anonymity of the Internet.

Having said that, and I really hope that you won't take this wrong way, because it's not intended to be insulting, but I truly fear for the future of your country. You are a true blue strong British patriot, but Britain needs far more guys like yourself, and the trends of what I see going on there today is more than a little disturbing.

[livius]

I hope you don't go! You put up some great posts and I always find them informative.

There seem to be a couple of people on FR that I have always thought were secretly working for the Dems. They attack other conservatives very viciously, often accusing them of not being conservative "enough," but their own attitudes are rather hard to determine. There is one notorious poster on Catholic threads that is like this and has driven many people away or has created such flame-wars that people simply stop participating.

Don't let them get to you! I have discovered that the best way to deal with these people is not to respond to their attacks. Then they get bored and try to disrupt somewhere else.

[Leto]

I've been here a bit longer than you, don't get to post a lot anymore. I will miss your posts on this board, they were well written and well informed.

Take care

[Tamberlane]

Ping, by the way. I believe you have mentioned your admiration for MadIvan, who is leaving the site.

[cooper72]

and the trends of what I see going on there today is more than a little disturbing.

The trends you yourself have no experience of and pick up third or fourth hand?

[Artist]

When I'm scrolling through posts, I always stop and read when I see your name. Your posts have been concise, pithy and often humorous. While I haven't read everything you've written, you've always struck me as an excellent representative of your country. FR's been fortunate that you've chosen to spend time here.

Thanks,