Posted on 04/23/2005 11:48:00 AM PDT by CHARLITE
A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.
Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day (mbpd).
"If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question," they said.
The analysts argued that the shortfall in energy needs would not be made up by alternatives as they were not developed as yet. "Thus the world will still need to rely upon traditional fossil fuels," their report said.
Growing demands
They also said existing new oilfield projects would not be enough to satisfy unprecedented growth in demand from developing economies, particularly China.
"We have taken into account every new oil discovery and potential source … as well as this we note the continuing situation of a fall in new field discoveries," the analysts said.
They pointed out China would contribute greatly to the world's rising energy needs.
"Rapid movements of people from the Chinese countryside into the cities would increase the demand for housing, cars and general transportation. All of this will fuel energy consumption," the report said.
Economic juggernaut
Industrial production in China is also growing rapidly with no major signs of decline.
"The types of energy-intensive production in China are growing fast and forecasts also point to continued growth."
"Chinese economic development is at a stage where the amount of energy used is not yet recycled back into the economy. This has definitely been the case in recent times and this explains the sharp increases in China and other similar nations recently," Artus and Kaabi said.
"One could thus envisage a scenario where there is a near seven-fold increase in crude oil prices, whereby, adding annual 2.5% inflation ... we arrive at a price of $380 per barrel by 2015."
I hope that, by then, we'll have developed a cheaper, alternative, home-made energy source, leaving the arabs to use their oil as salad dressing.
And while waiting for it, I lost 60% of my retirement savings.
then we'll be the country where everyone rides bikes.........
Not me...I'm gonna get a horse from my friend Mac.
FMCDH(BITS)
"Bank says Saudi's top field in decline"
An increase in the price of oil is equivalent to an increase in the distance between cities and countries. As far as I'm concerned it can go as high as it likes - because I can't be far enough from the folks at Al Jazeera (and elsewhere).
$273.60 for a 15 gallon fill-up? Don't think so.
What BS. There are other ways to get oil from shales, coal supplies, and other sources that become viable when a barrel hits well below that price. Once other sources come into play, the price of a barrel will not continue to skyrocket like that.
$380 a barrel is NOT going to happen. Whoever wrote this needs to learn a little bit about economics, especially the economics of oil. Higher prices cause reductions in demand. At double current prices alternative sources would become far more practical. Oil may indeed be more expensive in the future, but not anywhere near what the author is saying.
Sources extremely lacking in credibility.
The oil and gas market has always been volatile and is still too unpredictable to make assumptions such as this.
Move along, folks....nothing to see here. ;-)
Bookmarking to re read in ten years.
My understanding is that shale oil extraction is profitable at crude prices of $50.00 bbl. Since we have the largest supply of shale crude (around 200 years supply)it doesn't seem likely crude will stay to far above $50 bbl for to very long.
And while waiting for it, I lost 60% of my retirement savings
And I see your ready to bet wrongly again.
If oil hits $380 we'll have a lot more to worry about than the price of oil.
Oil is currently priced in dollars. If the dollar falls relative to other world currencies, then maybe $380 a barrel isn't so outlandish.
We need a response to the oil terrorists by implementing a national energy mobilization similar to the response to Sputnik in the fifties. Satellite solar energy production, opening up Alaska/Siberia full blast, wind, solar, here on earth, hydrogen and Mazola oil...tax credits/deductions for conservation and all above...anything and everything to break the back of the sand devils sending them back to the tents.
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