Posted on 04/12/2005 9:00:58 PM PDT by CHARLITE
Will the 21st century be another "American Century" or will it be the first "Asian Century"? A peaceful - for now - struggle has been joined.
For the past few weeks Americans have been focused on news from the Vatican. And for the past few years the bulk of "foreign news" has concerned the Middle East. But in the Far East three huge fuses are burning.
First, the prime minister of China, Wen Jiabao, traveled to India and declared that the two countries would be the "two pagodas" of economic might in the coming hundred years - the "Asian Century," Wen predicted.
The likely next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, has been a vocal proponent of "regime change." So what might the North Koreans do in response? Japan's Kyodo news service says a top North Korean official declared that his country could strike America not only directly, but also indirectly: "The United States should consider the danger that we could transfer nuclear weapons to terrorists."
So what can the United States do against such threats? Not much, it seems. The only country with influence on North Korea seems to be China, and yet the Chinese say that they can't help - even as Beijing protects North Korea against American military pre-emption.
Thus the three wheels: First, China gets closer to India, as the two nations seek a New Asian Order. Second, China grows more hostile to the United States and Japan. Third, China bolsters nuke-crazy North Korea.
Those are three fuses burning across the Pacific, whether we like it or not - whether we know it or not.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
>recent economic gains are two of the per capita poorest >countries in the world.
Yes but thats today. They are both on a high growth path and will remain that way for generations to come. They are investing large amounts in education and infrastructure , the lack of which kept them poor.
"They both have a long history of belligerence towards each other."
Same was said about japan and the US once upon a time.
"Meanwhile, the US hums along at +/- 4% GDP growth per year, easily outstripping any economy in the world."
Actually thats only because of massive fiscal deficit coupled with record low interest rates which have resulted in currency depreciation. So actually the purchasing power of the avg american has gone down and not up.
"Asian century? Don't think so. At best they both could possibly pull themselves out of dire poverty and develop a respectable middle class. At best."
I dont think you realize that china is TODAY the biggest cell phone market on the planet. These people already are a middle class and they are working towards getting even better. India started embracing capitalism 15years after china and so will take more time to catch up but it has other advantages such as an english language education system. Even if we concede that these folks will only be middle class that still means with 4 times the population of the US their GDP will be larger than the US.
Also the figures you quote are based on nominal estimates and not PPP figures. A dentist in India may make a quarter of what his counterpart in the US makes but that does not make his service any less valuable. US $ will depreciate V/s Asian currencies in the future and thus this disparity will be resolved. And so the numbers will look more like PPP numbers. Then the gap between the US and these countries will not be so big.
But I dont understand why this narrowing of the economic gap is seen as a threat. Shouldnt it be seen in a positive light where poverty is eliminated and also prosperity is spread more evenly around the world and not just a preserve of the West? At least in Indias case we have a open society similar to the western world and shares the same values.
Regardless of whether they are Indian nationals or American, as long as they are legally resident in the US they dont owe anyone an explanation for what they do. At least they are not asking the govt for money.
They are working to make a living. If thats not the american way, I dont know what is.
Now if they cannot run their business successfully for whatever reason they will shut down. And if you dont like the service as their customer .. dont go there again.
It is true that a large number of motels in America are owned and operated by people of Indian descent. Partly because the community has had some tradition of running these establishments and so immigrants follow role models of entreprenuers who have succeeded in that business before them.
An umbrella organization is http://www.aahoa.com/ which represents a large part of the hospitality industry.
I was very pleased to read your posting about China and India. I was finally able to read a sharp-witted, cogent, and concise analysis of the China/India question by someone who (like me) obviously has a firm grasp of the dynamics of the situtation. And is willing to put the thing in stark terms that any intelligent person is sure to understand. Your assessment is quite the counterpoint to all of the China-India-superpowers-soon-to-overtake-the-US blather we've been seeing lately. Good-O!
Gee, I wonder if our impending demise might just might be due to this ongoing obsession with MJ, homosexual unions, illegal labor, bilingual education, Robt. Blake, gays in the military, radical feminism, etc. Wonder if Chinese leaders ever fret about all these types of nonsensical issues that draw so much energy and attention away from moving this country in a positive direction.
It's easy to see that we now have nothing more than "managed" news coming from all three major networks.....in fact some days you could swear they're all reading from the same script and the vast majority of it is "infotainment". Obviously, the agenda is to continue to place a spotlight on matters of trivial importance to provide a nice distraction to the masses so they don't ever get around to figuring out their country is being stolen right out from under them.
We should definitely alert Jeff Head. It seems Pinkerton has stolen his plot!
"OUR industries and jobs have been transported "
How did they become american industries? Does any country have a monopoly over an industry? Does America have some divine right to produce a product or a service?
The same forces of capitalism that made america such a successful country are now working to move income and wealth from places of plenty to places of scarcity. And its not the jobs have just moved out from the US. This is a world wide phenomenon. I really hate how the media turns this into an "american" problem which its not. And remember the same India where software jobs have moved is buying boeing aircraft and those aircraft are not created in India. You need to see how many american branded products are available there. That same software engineer goes and buys a ford car or a levis jean or a ray ban sun glasses... and I dont say all of those are made in America but thats how free trade works.. right?
The US has really enjoyed enormous and an unrealistic streak of properity for a long time without facing any competition but nothing lasts forever.
But that also does not mean that jobs that have moved out will forever stay there or that new jobs will not be created to replace old ones. New jobs are created every minute in the US.
Once the revaluation of the US$ is complete some of the outsourced jobs may come back but eventually market forces will determine which jobs are done where.
"small group of software engineers, lawyers, doctors, and financial analysts on one side and millions of low paid Walmart workers on the other"
The fact is that in any developed country manufacturing sector does not employ a lot of people.. rather the Service sector does. Also because manufacturing has become so productive that it wont employ a lot of people. The fact remains that the service industries have more value addition and are highly paid. The key to sustaining highly paid jobs in ANY country is the intellectual property industries because thats where the most opportunity for value addition lies. So if America or any country wants to sustain high standards of living then the way to do that is not to chase jobs of yesterday but jobs of tomorrow. I still think the middle class can be sustained inspite of jobs moving abroad.
"China is not just producing widgets. They are producing WEAPONS systems and American companies are HELPING them"
Well they could say the same thing about the US. American companies are making money in china and eventually that money helps the US produce more weapons. Fact is that all the countries are trading partners and they will develop weapons.. its not anyones fault. China is to my mind not really a threat to anyone simply coz there is going to be too much stability in the world due to the US and India ofcourse and so the chinese threat is too exaggerated. US would do well to improve relations with India.
"the cardinal sin in america for the past couple of decades has been that of making anyone "uncomfortable" or being "insensitive". that pretty much eliminates the drive to investigate anything. "
Very well put! I agree completely. The single most dysfunctional institution in the US is television. Its almost as if it is sinister. The way news is "managed" and important issues are not discussed at all in favor of trivia. This also results in creating an intellectually isolated society out of touch with the real world. This is actually a far bigger threat to the US than the china's, Irans of the world. I strongly believe that the US as a country has no external threat. The biggest threats to the US are all its own creation. The dysfunctional (hijacked?) media & of course american politicians are the biggest threat to the future of the US..
Regarding "3 Signs of Impending Asian Century"More and more people are seeing the handwriting on the wall IMHO.
Mr. Pinkerton,
I agree whole heartedly with your assessment of China, India, N. Korea and the fuses burning over there.
I have written extensively about it as a warning, both fictionally:
The Dragon's Fury Series
http://www.dragonsfuryseries.com
Which is a five part series of novels about precisely the scenario you invision.
and factually in:
The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon
If you get a chance, please review those sites. I would be happy to send you an entire copy of the book series for your review if you were so inclined.
Sincerely,
Jeff Head
And how long ago did you begin the series, three maybe four years ago?
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