Posted on 04/12/2005 2:43:56 PM PDT by ninenot
Culture & Cosmos
April 12, 2005 Volume 2, Number 36
Democratic Strategists Issue Memo on Loss of Catholics
A memo authored by a prominent Democratic strategy organization calls the decline in support of white Catholics for Democrats "striking" and "a big part of the 2004 election story." One of the analysis' key findings is that Catholic voters are becoming more pro-life which the authors called "a factor in the recent losses and one of the blockages for Democrats, at least in the Midwest." The data also reveals that young Catholics are more pro-life than their parents and that bishops who speak out against pro-abortion politicians help bolster the pro-life vote.
The abortion issue is particularly potent for a group called "Democratic defectors" who either identified themselves as Democrats or voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 but voted for President Bush in the last election. Among this group, "26 percent believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases, nearly three times the number for all Catholic Democrats."
The memo was issued by Democracy Corps, a research and tactical advice organization founded by Democrat strategy virtuosos James Carville, Stanley Greenberg and Bob Shrum. Titled "Reclaiming the White Catholic Vote," it is based on data from a nationwide survey of more than a 1,000 white Catholic voters. The decline in the white Catholic vote has been steady over the last decade. Clinton won it by seven percentage points; Al Gore lost it by seven points; and Sen. John Kerry lost it by 14 points. The data provided in the report provides a fascinating window into the much discussed Catholic vote and makes it clear Democrats are losing ground because of their stance on a range of cultural issues.
It turns out that one of the most contentious and visible issues in the 2004 election, the denial of the Eucharist to pro-abortion politicians, did not hurt the pro-life side as many said it would. The poll found that when white Catholics were asked whether or not they were more or less likely to vote for a Democrat that "is denied communion by the area's bishop for voting to support abortion rights" 49 percent said they were less likely while 33 percent said they were more likely.
The memo also made it clear that the abortion issue is not going away. "Although the pro-life position is strongest among seniors, Catholics current pro-life position does not appear likely to lessen with time. While middle-age Catholics lean toward keeping abortion legal, voters under 30 are more pro-life: 53 percent believe abortion should be illegal in most cases." The pro-life position could be a winning one for Democrats according to the study. Fifty-nine percent of white Catholics say they are more likely to support a Democratic candidate who is pro-life and 35 percent say they are less likely, giving a pro-life Democrat a 24 point advantage. Even on the East Coast where Catholics are less pro-life, a pro-life Democrat has a 12 point advantage over a pro-abortion candidate.
The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue by presenting themselves as one who "[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption." This common ground approach is reminiscent of a recent speech given by New York Senator and likely presidential candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in which she softened her approach to abortion by calling it a "tragic choice." In the speech she said faith-based abstinence should be embraced but also called on increased funding for "family planning services," a euphemism for contraception, abortifacients and abortions.
Dems consistently win the Catholic vote. Exit polls have shown that Catholics voted mostly for Bill Clinton in ’92 and ’96, and Al Gore by the slight margin of 2 percentage points over Republican George W. Bush (49% to 47%) in 2000.
Many blue states have large pockets of catholics (Mass, NY, IL) and local politics there are not notably conservative at all. Clearly many nominal catholics support democrats in office, and that means pursuing a pro-choice agenda.
Many Catholics are quietly pro choice and think it's no big deal. I think they are wrong, but I don't think that makes the phenomenon untrue.
Yeah, because they will kill anyone who votes differently (just look at CAIR).
>>>>IIRC, this is precisely the position HRC has taken, recently, and loudly.
It is, but its exactly like the other "new" democratic positions. Its a retread, a tired, worn out retread that has wholly failed to gain them any traction. They need a new way of lying to us, if they hope to win.
patent
I agree with you. The fact remains that we have a lot of self identified Catholics who aren't very Catholic. Many of those are pro abortion. Sad but true.
"You'll have to make sacrifices for the common good".
She also used the word "collective" in the same speech.
great post!
Two more points:
First: Most Mexicans (America's fastest growing minority) crossing the border are Catholic and are most certainly not social leftists, abortion-lovers, lavender sympathizers, et al.
Second: If you factor out the non-church goers (about half of those considering themselves Catholic), the actually Catholic (i.e. church-going) vote is very heavily Republican. Bear in mind that in the lifetime of baby boomers, the Catholic Church USED to be known as "The Democratic Party at prayer."
Two more points:
First: Most Mexicans (America's fastest growing minority) crossing the border are Catholic and are most certainly not social leftists, abortion-lovers, lavender sympathizers, et al.
Second: If you factor out the non-church goers (about half of those considering themselves Catholic), the actually Catholic (i.e. church-going) vote is very heavily Republican. Bear in mind that in the lifetime of baby boomers, the Catholic Church USED to be known as "The Democratic Party at prayer."
The ugly truth is: Mrs. Clinton doesn't have to speak on any issue. She has a free pass.
I disagree.
X42 used that line, too--except X42 was obviously a leering lothario--he had zero credibility.
HRC has credibility if only because she's still married to X42, and so far, knowledge of her criminal activities in campaigns (and while she pulled rank in the WH) has been obscured nicely.
So far...
Best news in a long time.
Solution: Punish bishops.
Dems consistently win the Catholic vote.Two things. First, that has changed, and you are out of date. See below.
Second, even had you been correct, that would not prove they are pro-abortion. Most people aren’t single issue voters, and many Catholics voted democratic, despite being pro-life, because of other issues. I strongly disagree with that mentality, but it was very clearly out there.
Exit polls have shown that Catholics voted mostly for Bill Clinton in ’92 and ’96, and Al Gore by the slight margin of 2 percentage points over Republican George W. Bush (49% to 47%) in 2000.First, Is there some reason you don’t quote the last election? I would have thought that since you were claiming that Catholics are presently “by and large pro abortion” that you would want to be quoting the most recent polls. The polls in the last election prove Catholics are rather clearly for President Bush, even up against a catholic candidate, which would seem to indicate that by the standard of measurement you chose to rely on to prove your claim, Catholics are in fact pro-life.
Second, those polls include people who never go to Church and don’t believe anything the Church teaches. If you limit it to actual weekly churchgoers, the Catholics have been voting pro-life for quite some time.
Many blue states have large pockets of catholics (Mass, NY, IL) and local politics there are not notably conservative at all. Clearly many nominal catholics support democrats in office, and that means pursuing a pro-choice agenda.CINOs hardly prove your point. Relying on folks who largely left the Church because it was pro-life and they weren’t really doesn’t prove that those of us who are still in the Church are pro-abortion. I've lived in some of the pockets you name (born in IL, lived in MA), and I can tell you that a great deal of the so called "catholic" population left the Church some time ago.
I really hope you can see the logical fallacy in your arguement here.
Many Catholics are quietly pro choice and think it's no big deal. I think they are wrong, but I don't think that makes the phenomenon untrue.No, it’s the facts that make the “phenomenon” untrue.
patent
It's not just pro-life, it's the combination of pro-life and the defense of the traditional family. It took both of these issues to drive people to the polls.
Al Gore won the Catholic vote in 2000, 50-47.
Bush won the Catholic vote in 2004, 52-47.
That was the John Kerry strategy, try to not take sides of all issues. This won't work. If Hillary wants to win she is gonna have to support specific things such as banning partial birth abortions, parental notification, and oppose gay marriage. If Hillary does all those things, she will be sworn in as President in 2009. But I doubt she will.
>>>X42 used that line, too--except X42 was obviously a leering lothario--he had zero credibility.
True, but much of what X42 said was new at the time, and I'd suggest (but can't prove) that many were suckered into his "safe legal and rare" BS. Time proved it was BS. That should have been evident anyway, but I think given X42s skill as a politician, and his skill in crafting the BS message in a new way, helped him overcome the obstacles. I don't think Hillary has it, and I don't see anyone else comign forward convincingly yet. They'll find a new way to lie to us, but until then I'm not betting hillary convinces many, especially given her history.
patent
Actually the memo provides a nice opportunity to go for the jugular on Congressional, etc. votes and the damage to the RATS.
Ahead of votes that impact this issue, Repubs should raise the stakes and get as much medsia attention directed toward impending votes.
That will drive the Rats crazy as everytime they cast their pro-abortion votes they will see the margin among Catholic voters growing against them. Make the votes the focus not their talking heads spewing damage control attempts to describe themselves as they are not.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.