Posted on 04/08/2005 7:52:35 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
[Analysis by Kim Young-hwan, (the author of) 'On N. Korean Democratization']
Ideology and organization greatly weakened, 80% chance of collapse in 10 years
[04/08/05 19:42]
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The prediction of N. Korean collapse was made twice already. The first was in 1989, when communist regimes in Eastern Europe went down in a series, and the second, in 1994, when (N. Korean) president Kim Il-sung died. However, these two predictions had a serious flaw.
At the time, N. Korea had few internal factors to cause a collapse. Eastern European countries were so far way (from N. Korea) both psychologically and geographically. N. Korea had little interest in international communist movement., and was an extremely closed country. As a result, the odds were pretty low that the demise of communist regimes so far away could lead to the collapse of N. Korean regime.
In 1994, when Kim Il-sung died, there was little possibility that his death would result in the destabilization of N. Korea because Kim Jong-il had been running the country for a long time. The two predictions of the collapse did not consider these basic facts, and naturally, the predictions were well off the mark.
Nevertheless, the third prediction of the collapse is being advanced now, which is based on the changes in N. Korea for the last 10 years.
Starting from the time of Kim Il-sung's death through the massive famine, there occurred a momentous change in N. Korea.
First, Juche ideology and N. Korean Worker's Party had both weakened, and N. Korea turned into a military dictatorship guided by Military First Policy. Second, people's loyalty to their leaders went down, and the state control over people's life weakened. Third, corruption became rampant and state organizations were abysmally managed, which angered ordinary people.
Juche ideology and the loyalty to leaders are the software of N. Korean system. The party and the military are the hardware. The direction and the content of what went on for last 10 years in N. Korea are, in short, the breakdown of both software and hardware in N. Korean system.
It is a fundamental change which would determine the future of N. Korea. On top of this development, the influx and spread of outside information are gaining momentum.
Furthermore, another important factor for deciding N. Korea's future, the N. Korean nuke issue, is in a 'dangerous stalemate.' Unless N. Korea comes up with a solution beyond our imagination, the pressure and sanction against Kim Jong-il regime by U.S. and the international community would intensify. This is an external factor which makes it impossible to prolong N. Korean regime.
Since we cannot observe any movements which can directly threaten the regime for now, it may not be sensible to say that N. Korean regime would collapse tomorrow. Still, ideology and organization, which are essential for N. Korean regime's survival, have markedly deteriorated. In such a situation, with continuing external pressure or isolation, there would be 50-60% chance of the collapse in 5 years, and 80-90% chance in 10 years.
Even if N. Korean regime lasts longer than 5 years, in political terms, it is my prediction that it would barely survive in a state of life support.
The collapse of N. Korean regime is not likely to follow the scenario where the gradual spread of dissident movements would lead to the overthrow of the regime. It would much more likely that the collapse would come abruptly across the board, when the loss of Kim Jong-il regime's control is coupled with external pressure and sanction.
The important insight which the last 10 year's change in N. Korea showed us is not when or how N. Korean regime would collapse, but that it became crystal-clear that the presence N. Korea's Kim Jong-il regime cannot co-exist with the well-being of N. Korean people or the future of Koreans.
That is why arguing over the possibility of its collapse is a waste of time. Instead we should take real actions now for the collapse of N. Korean regime, and democratization of N. Korea, and speeding up the unification of two Koreas.
Columnist Kim Young-hwan
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Kim Young-hwan used to be a major figure in leftwing underground student circles in 80's. He was called the godfather of Juche ideology among leftwing students. He went by a pen-name "Kang-chol." He propagated Juche ideology among students, using a underground publication known as "Kang-chol Letters." He is arguably the best authority of Juche ideology in S. Korea, next to Hwang Jang-yop, the original architect of Juche ideology and now a defector in the South. He even went to N. Korea, contacting N. Korean spy and riding a N. Korean submarine to Pyongyang. He actually met Kim Il-sung and talked for two hours face-to-face, an astonishing fete. However, he recollected that he was disappointed at Kim Il-sung afterwards, because Kim Il-sung himself knew surprisingly little about Juche ideology. In his observation, Kim's knowledge of Marx-Leninism was OK. In mid-90's, he had a major change of heart, especially finding out widespread famine in N. Korea. He flipped 180 degrees. He is now a N. Korean human-right activist, and working for ending tyranny in the North and bring democracy. He has become, in short, the implacable enemy of N. Korean regime, and one of the best theoreticians against N. Korean ideology.
Ping!
How about an explanation of what Juche ideology is? Thank you for the article.
It is all about complete independence from the world... we don't need anything from anybody in our socialist monarchy paradise. It is the reason this worst-government-on-the-earth has survived as long as it has.
To be quite brief, Juche ideology is the N. Korea's state ideology. It emphasize self-reliance and hyper-nationalism, which are used to argue that N. Korea should be a closed self-sufficient paradise. At the center of ideology is the personality cult revolving around Kim dynasty. The leader elevated to a divine figure whose existence is essential for the survival of N. Korean nation. It incorporates a form of extreme personality cult.
I sure like the title of this thread!
Thanks for the info on Kim Young-hwan
It is all about complete independence from the world... we don't need anything from anybody in our socialist monarchy paradise. It is the reason this worst-government-on-the-earth has survived as long as it has.
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I hope a copy of this hasn't gotten into the Progressive Caucus in Congress -- or to the Hitlery campaign ---
I heard about this great "collapse" when I was stationed in South Korea 10 years ago. The theory reminds me of global warming. It sounds good, but no one can quite put their finger on it.
an-nyeong-ha-se-yo,
~Corey
Yeah, I did not expect N. Korean to collapse in previous two occasions. I was right to predict at the time that Kim Jong-il would make the regime more oppressive. However, he could not cope with massive famine which followed a few years later. From that time on, the system is breaking up. Now not a small number of N. Koreans watch S. Korean melodrama on bootleg CD's.
You have a point.
Economists call this "autarky". (Can also be spelled autarchy.)
Thanks for your perspective. Keep us updated.
ban-gap seum-ni-da
~Corey
I think this single thing will hasten the collapse..
As more N. Koreans begin to realize they do not live in paradise, but in hell..
There should be a strong campaign to send CD's to N. Korea, along with cheap, portable players, to spread the message of what the rest of the world is like..
Once the majority are aware of all they are missing, change will come swiftly..
JUCHE = HERMIT KINGDOM
I agree. As soon as mass realize that they live in hell and have been lied to for all these years, the regime will be gone.
I heard a story about a young N. Korean refugee. After he escaped to S. Korea, he found out that Kim Jong-il was not born in the sacred mountain of Baekdu, but Soviet military camp ground in Siberia. That alone made him angry. Just the simple fact that Kim's birth myth is a lie was a significant shock to him.
"HARNESSING MODERN COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE OVERTHROW OF HERMETICALLY-SEALED DICTATORSHIPS"
Mass lethargy?
A 180-degree turn toward and embracing various vices in the West, such as drug use, prostitution, gambling, financial corruption, organized crime?
I am always wondering what Post-Kim, Post KWP North Korea will look like. It will be as if 30 million people are suddenly taken off their cocaine habit and go into DT withdrawls, or suddenly told their God-like cult leader is dead and they are now free to leave the religion and determine their own way.
The mental adaptation to sudden freedom will be a challenge, considering the extremes this current regime imposes on the human mind and free will.
That is why the role of religions is so important in post-Kim Jong-il N. Korea. Many people are relegated to beastly existence. Their mind as well as their body had been abused. It is already a lawless society, only the raw power keeps people in check. Nihilism and hopelessness could creep up unless the spiritual vacuum is filled.
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