Future Fighter Aircraft Requirements in Emerging Economies

Frost & Sullivan ^ | 29 Mar 2005 | Marko Lukovic

[sukhoi-30mki]

Future Fighter Aircraft Requirements in Emerging Economies

Date Published: 29 Mar 2005

By Marko Lukovic

In the next ten years there will be a continued growth in purchases of new fighter aircraft. Outside North America and Western Europe (Eurofighter and/or JSF buyers), this will especially be the case in Asia where up to US$ 7 billion may be spent on new fighter programs. In Eastern Europe and Latin America several countries will be making important strategic decisions about the future of their air defence capability in the near future and this could lead to contracts potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars being offered to fighter aircraft manufacturers. It is therefore essential that the companies involved are kept aware of these opportunities in order to offer best possible conditions to potential buyers.

When it comes to Asia, the two most interesting cases are India and China, although more purchases are also to be expected by Malaysia and Indonesia. India expects to experience sustained economic growth in the next decade and wants to ensure that no threats to her security will endanger this growth and to reinforce her position as a global power. In line with that, there will be large-scale purchases in order to improve certain capabilities and replace equipment nearing the end of service life. US$ 3 billion were already spent on 140 new Su-30s that will be delivered in the period 2007-2017. Up to 130 medium sized fighter aircraft are needed to substitute obsolete MiG-21s, and a notable shift in procurement practices was made when India announced that Northrop Grumman F-16s are considered as strong contenders for this role. On top of that more new training, special mission aircraft and helicopters are needed for all three services. This will be followed by additional related contracts for MRO and Training and Simulation worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

China is much more of a mystery, as her defence procurement system is still completely opaque. It is known that they have been heavily modernising their Armed Forces over the past decade, but because of the shortage of reliable information it is not certain what kind of a mix of modernised domestically produced and imported equipment the Chinese have managed to acquire. It is now known that the purchases of Su-27s have stopped after about 120 were bought from Russia or licence-built in China. However, it is unclear whether this had happened because they wanted to build them with better avionics after the EU sanctions are lifted as expected, or because the domestically built J-10 fighter is considered to be a better value product in the long term. Chinese Defence industry is eagerly awaiting the final decision regarding the lifting of EU sanctions and will continue the procurement drive only after the necessary adjustments have been made to include new technologies they expect to buy, should the sanctions be lifted. The presentation by Richard Fisher, an expert on Chinese defence, at the IQPC Fighter Conference that will be held in London on 24 May will shed more light on these issues and will explain the current situation on doctrinal and technological level.

In Eastern Europe the countries currently in focus are Bulgaria and Romania. Both of these countries have been looking to buy western aircraft for over ten years in anticipation of joining NATO, but priority was given to re-equipping and reforming their Armies and Navies. Now that both countries are full NATO members, it seems that the moment to decide what aircraft to buy has finally arrived, and not before time as the current inventory has limited capability and is nearing the end of its lifecycle. Colonel Rumen Radev of the Bulgarian Air Force presenting next month in London, will for the first time elaborate on the exact requirements that Bulgaria has from the new fighters, as well as the scope of procurement. Also in London, Colonel Serghei Iason of the Romanian Air Force will speak about the major upgrades of MiG-21s his country made as an interim solution and about the long awaited transfer to new fighter types in the next three years. Judging by their procurement practices to date Romania is likely to purchase up to 50 second hand F-16s Block 15 or similar, which will then incrementally modernised as funds are made available, probably with Israeli assistance. The Bulgarian procurement decision is still very much open to speculation, and one hopes that Col. Radev will shed more light on which fighter aircraft might be selected for the next round, and more importantly on which one is the favourite.

In Latin America most countries have Air Forces that need replacement of a large portion of their inventory, but they are short funds. There are however a few notable exceptions such as Chile and Colombia. Chile has placed an order for 10 Block 52 F-16 and will be negotiating a second batch later this year. Whilst Colombian government is again on the offensive against the guerrillas and has just announced that it has set aside US$ 540 million for a purchase of 22 new combat aircraft. Twelve companies have already expressed interest to take part in the bidding process.

Although it is the most powerful country in the region and the largest economy, Brazil has cancelled the F-X fighter procurement project that was anyway plagued by delays due to lack of financing. Before cancellation, strongest contenders with highest offsets were SAAB Gripen, Dassault Mirage 2000 and Sukhoi Su-37. As most of Brazilian Air Force inventory has passed or is very near the end of service life, it is to be expected that 20-30 combat aircraft will be ordered in the next 5 years in a new procurement project. Otherwise the current airworthy fleet consisting of a handful of upgraded F-5BRs will be under a tremendous amount of pressure trying to control airspace over the Amazon and prevent flights transporting narcotics.

From the few examples listed above, it is clear that the procurement of fighter aircraft will continue steadily in the next decade in countries outside North America and Western Europe. There is a clear market shift towards the emerging regional and global powers such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa (Gripen) that want to go beyond pure self-defence and project that power. Other countries will also be buying but much less and over much longer periods. There is also a notable shift in procurement methodology, especially in India and Brazil where there is now much more of an emphasis on quality and value for money and procurement decisions are no longer based on purely political reasoning.

It should also be noted that procurement of fighter aircraft in countries mentioned above is relatively undeterred by the emergence of Unmanned Combat Airborne Vehicles (UCAVs) although some of them (especially China) have long running UAV programmes. In spite of the fact that the global defence requirements have changed beyond recognition in the past 20 years, the multirole capability has ensured that there will be a requirement for manned combat aircraft for at least another two decades.

Marko Lukovic is an aerospace and defence analyst at Frost & Sullivan in London Tel: +44 20 7343 8378

E-mail: Marko.Lukovic@frost.com

[sukhoi-30mki]

Ping!!

[ProudVet77]

Thanks for the ping. It's interesting to see the world buying one generation of aircraft while we are building the next generation.
Although I do question his comment "although some of them (especially China) have long running UAV programmes". I follow UAV developments closely and China is a name very absent from any developments. In fact worldwide, Australia and Great Britain seem to be the only two countries other than ours that are really serious about UAVs.

[AppyPappy]

Israel may be leading the world in UAV's

[sukhoi-30mki]

Not exactly,A lot of nations are deep into UAVs & UCAVs.For eg,Israel is miles ahead of either Australia or Great Britain in UAVs & is infact bidding to supply to those nations!!!Israel,France,Germany,Sweden, & Russia are all developing UCAVs.Israel recently agreed to help India improve it's existing UAVs & develop newer ones.Id be the last to think China isn't serious on UAVs.The problem is that there is very little information about such Chinese programmes & whatever little is available,it won't probably be accurate.They already operate a few Israeli Harpy (anti-radar) drones & have a few short endurance systems somewhat like the US-Israeli Hunter.Id expect them to use increased cooperation with Russia & the EU to develop & deploy newer platforms.Afterall,UAV/UCAVs are the future.I've even read that India & Japan are doing research into UCAVs.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Yep,the US,France,Holland,India among others use Israeli systems.

[ProudVet77]

Yes, I missed that one on Israel. They certainly have been in the forefront. Not sure they are keeping up at this point as their requirements are more limited. For example an A-45 type vehicle probably is not of much interest to them. Think they are more prone to the Predator-B class. They also seem to be more into tiny UAVs. Wasn't implying that GB and Australia were ahead in the R&D end, but they are actively pursuing purchasing some of our systems for maritime patrol. I was thinking that they were getting into using UAVs in a serious way.
Haven't actually seen much from the other countries.

[sukhoi-30mki]

One thing you can never expect from Israel is them to open up on any new systems they have.So even if they have an X-47 type system,you will hear of it only if it crashes on enemy territory!!They do invest in bigger UAVs like the 'Heron' Medium altitude,long endurance(MALE) Drone.The Heron reportedly has an endurance of over 40 hours(upto 52 hours) & has been purchased by France & India(for maritime operations).I've read that they use armed UAVs against terrorist targets,but there is little to no precise info on it.

[Wudan Master]

Is air-power over-rated?

One retired Canadian army colonel certainly seeme to think so. He claimed in another forum that despite the huge amount of airpower used in the Yusoslav war, the US air-force could not and did not managed to destroy the Yugoslav army and its tank forces. In fact, the results are very very disappointing

Similarly, the USAF ,in "Operation Rolling Thunder" in the Vietnam War, dropped more tonnage of bombs than the whole of WW2 put together, and yet, could NOT destroy the "Ho Chi Min" trail. Despite daily bombing, the HO-Chi-Min trail still contimue to supply millions of tons of war materials to the Viet-Kong

[sanchez810]

The Problem with UAV,UCAV development is that in all the countries you mentioned there is one organization that is impeding a large investment in R&D or procurement, that is The Air Force. All the air forces do not want to loose airmen and do not want to foot the bill for something that it will have that effect. There is also "The Dreadnought effect", if a country develops a system that is Superior to its manned counterpart, it will probably have an advantage, for a Short period of time, over its rivals until they copycat the technology which will make the first countries manned systems obsolete.

You can clearly see an example of this, in the US. The UAC,UCAV programs are been developed for the Army-Marines-Navy, CIA and Special operations. Only when the Army threaten to take over the CAS role with predator crafts did the Air force react and begun buying those systems. Also, The X-45, X-47 will probably be bought by the Navy, since they will prefer to shift procurement dollar towards surface combatants. If this happens it will put enormous pressure on the Airforce.

[ASA Vet]

could NOT destroy the "Ho Chi Min" trail.

Maybe we should have just had spec ops reverse the road signs?

[ProudVet77]

I also think that there is the "Rumsfeld Effect".
He's a former Naval pilot and Princeton graduate, so these brass butts aren't going to push him around. He knows a good thing when he sees it.

[sanchez810]

True, There is a Rumsfeld Effect but it's subtle and oblique. By giving a green card for Space Weaponry. The Development of such is so Big that the USAF will have to search for cost savings in it's manned air system. It has no happened yet, but they will soon embrace unmanned technology, when they discover that their budget wont be enough to cover the new battle field.

[ko_kyi]

I read that when a ground invasion was ruled out, the Yugoslavs stopped trying to keep their armor ready to fight and just hid everything in barns.

The idea behind combined arms is that defending against one (air bombardment) makes you vulnerable to the other (mechanized infantry and tanks).

[Southack]

"It should also be noted that procurement of fighter aircraft in countries mentioned above is relatively undeterred by the emergence of Unmanned Combat Airborne Vehicles (UCAVs) although some of them (especially China) have long running UAV programmes. In spite of the fact that the global defence requirements have changed beyond recognition in the past 20 years, the multirole capability has ensured that there will be a requirement for manned combat aircraft for at least another two decades."

Manned fighters still have value, but UCAV's offer new strategies such as swarms of unmanned vehicles in the thousands (armed with air to ground) on a first strike into enemy territory, as well as circling overhead for CAP while armed with air-to-air ordnance.

[Southack]

04 April 2005
Vought markets unmanned seaplane to US Navy

By MICHAEL SIRAK JDW Staff Reporter
Washington, DC

Vought Aircraft Industries has unveiled a concept that the company says is unique in today's burgeoning realm of pilotless aircraft - an armed unmanned seaplane, dubbed Kingfisher II.

The Kingfisher II could gather intelligence, relay communications, hunt for submarines and support special operations forces, according to the company. It could also deploy unmanned underwater vehicles to counter mines and attack swarming boats with missiles and bombs.

[Southack]

PREDATOR B - MQ-9 HUNTER/KILLER In May 1998 General Atomics was awarded a Block 1 Upgrade contract to expand the capabilities of the Predator system. System upgrades include development of an improved relief-on-station (ROS) system which allows continuous coverage over areas of interest without any loss of time on station, secure air traffic control voice relay, Ku-band satellite tuning and implementation of an Air Force Mission Support System (AFMSS). The upgrade also covers a more powerful turbocharged engine and wing de-icing systems to enable year-round operations. The upgraded Predator, the MQ-9 Hunter/Killer, has been operational in the Balkans since April 2001. The Predator B has an operational ceiling of 50,000ft and a maximum internal payload of 800lb and external payload of over 3,000lb. Predator B has been flight tested with Hellfire II anti-armour missiles and can carry up to 14 missiles. Flight trials have also taken place with the General Atomics Lynx SAR (synthetic aperture radar) payload. Lynx also features ground moving target indicator technology. The USAF has also ordered two versions of Predator B with turbofan jet engines. The Predator is to be flight tested with a L-3 Communications Tactical Common Datalink (TCDL). In August 2004, Predator B successfully dropped a Paveway II (GBU-12) laser-guided bomb on a stationary ground target. SYSTEM COMPONENTS A typical Predator system configuration would include four aircraft, one ground control system and one Trojan Spirit II data distribution terminal. The Predator air vehicle is 27ft in length and has a 49ft wingspan. The system operates at an altitude of 25,000ft and at a range of 400 nautical miles. The endurance of the air vehicle is more than 40 hours and the cruise speed is over 70 knots. The air vehicle is equipped with UHF and VHF radio relay links, a C-band line-of-sight data link which has a range of 150 nautical miles and UHF and Ku-band satellite data links. PAYLOAD The surveillance and reconnaissance payload capacity is 450lb and the vehicle carries electro-optical and infrared cameras and a synthetic aperture radar. The two-colour DLTV television is equipped with a variable zoom and 955mm Spotter. The high resolution FLIR has six fields of view, 19mm to 560mm. The Raytheon Multi-Spectral Targeting System (MTS) is fitted on the MQ-1 Predator. The MTS provides real-time imagery selectable between infrared and day TV as well as a laser designation capability. MQ-1 can employ two laser-guided Hellfire anti-armour missiles with the MTS. The Northrop Grumman TESAR synthetic aperture radar which provides all-weather surveillance capability, has a resolution of 1ft. Other payload options, which can be selected to meet mission requirements, include a laser designator and rangefinder, electronic support and countermeasures and a moving target indicator (MTI). GROUND STATION The UAV Ground Control Station is built into a single 30ft trailer, containing pilot and payload operator consoles, three Boeing Data Exploitation and Mission Planning Consoles and two synthetic aperture radar workstations together with satellite and LOS (line of sight) ground data terminals. The Ground Control Station can send imagery data via a landline to the operational users or to the Trojan Spirit data distribution system. The Trojan Spirit II data distribution system is equipped with a 5.5m dish for Ku-band Ground Data Terminal and a 2.4m dish for data dissemination. OPERATION Predator follows a conventional launch sequence from a semi-prepared surface under direct line-of-sight control. The take-off and landing length is typically 2,000ft. The mission can be controlled through line-of-site data links or through Ku-band satellite links to produce continuous video. Video signals received in the Ground Control Station are passed to the Trojan Spirit van for worldwide intelligence distribution or directly to operational users via a commercial global broadcast system. Command users are able to task the payload operator in real-time for images or video on demand.		RQ-1A Predator is a long endurance, medium altitude unmanned aircraft system for surveillance and reconnaissance missions. It has a Ku-band satellite data link to provide over-the-horizon mission capabilities.
		Predator B is powered by a turboprop engine and can carry a greatly increased payload.
		Predator UAV carrying an Hellfire-C laser-guided missile.
		Predator UAVs have been operational in Bosnia since 1995, where they have flown over 600 missions for more than 4,000 hours in support of NATO, UN and US operations.
		Predator operated from a tactical control station located aboard the USS Carl Vinson, Nimitz class aircraft carrier. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides Predator with an all-weather, through-the-clouds surveillance capability.
		Predator B can conduct multiple missions simultaneously due to its large internal and external payload capacity.
		Designated MQ-9 Hunter-Killer, Predator B's primary mission is interdiction and conducting armed reconnaissance against critical, perishable targets.

[ProudVet77]

Nopt so sure about the Kingfisher, seaplanes have limits because of sea state. It's innovative, but taking off in 10 ft seas might be a problem.
There seems to be some terminology overlap on the Predator-B. While it is referred to as "hunter-killer", it's only one of several entries in the "hunter-killer" class. Included in these entries is a "Predator-C", Proteus, and others. The requirements for the "hunter-killer" class include 4 500lb JDAMs. The Predator-B already has the ability to carry 6 500lb JDAMs. Other entries can carry over 6000lbs of bombs. So the manufacturers are already ahead of the Pentagon, which bodes well for the future. This must have been what it was like when the automobile was first put into production, there were literally dozens of companies each with it's own ideas. Very exciting times in this field.

[sukhoi-30mki]

I read somewhere that General Atomics is toying with the the idea of an enhanced turbofan powered variant of the Predator,so that it becomes more competitive in the export market as well as for US forces.Any ideas about it??

[Gengis Khan]

UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES

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[ The Modern Indian Army ]

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	The Nishant UAV on display at Def Expo '04. The UAV has been operationalised by the Indian Army with series production scheduled to begin soon. The airframe is made of carbon/glass fibre reinforced structure which facilitates for low RCS and the drone is powered by an ALVIS AR-801 55 bhp engine driving a pusher propeller. The Vehicles R&D lab of DRDO offers two engines for generic UAV applications, namely the RE-2-21-P and RE-4-37-P power plants.
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	The 380 kg Nishant UAV requires rail-launching from a hydro-pneumatic launcher. Launches at a velocity of 45 m/sec are carried out in 0.6 seconds with 100 kW power and subsequent launches can be carried out in intervals of 20 minutes. The Mobile Hydro-Pneumatic Launcher (MHPL) system mounted on a Tatra truck weighs 14,000 kg and boasts of a life cycle of 1000 launches before requiring overhaul. Here is an example on display at Def Expo '04.
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	The Nishant UAV on static display at Aero India '03. Built to Indian Army requirements, it includes multi-mission day/night capability using advanced electro-optical payloads (CCD, FLIR and mini pan camera, SIGINT and laser rangefinder installed in a gimballed payload assembly) or the (unconfirmed) EL/M-2055 SAR/MTI UAV recon payload.
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	The Nishant UAV on display at Aero India '98. It has an endurance of 4+ hours with a 45 kg payload carrying capability, with it's integrated sensor package (FLIR, laser ranger and 35mm mini pan camera) and drive electronics contained in the Gimballed Payload Assembly (GPA), weighing 40 kg.
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	Developed by ADE (Aeronautical Development Establishment), the Nishant UAV is primarily tasked with intelligence gathering over enemy territory and also for recce, surveillance, target designation, artillery fire correction, damage assessment, ELINT and SIGINT.
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