John Fund: Bush Democrats(Detailed look at 2004's voting suggests big Republican opportunities)

Wall Street Journal ^ | April 4, 2005 | John Fund

[RWR8189]

A treasure trove of data on the meaning of the 2004 presidential election has just been released, and you can bet that if reporters don't look at it carefully, strategists for potential candidates will. The 2004 election numbers may explain why Hillary Clinton is taking care to present herself as a centrist.

While we vote for president in local precincts and then see the election results reported by state and county, the way to get a feeling for the underlying trends of an election is to wait for the results to be broken down into the nation's 435 congressional districts. Only a handful of states adequately compile presidential election results by congressional districts. That's why political junkies appreciate the efforts of Polidata, a database firm run by Clark Bensen, which just spent months collecting precinct-level data from local officials and belatedly giving a fresh perspective on how George W. Bush assembled his winning coalition.

In 2000, Mr. Bush carried 228 congressional districts to Al Gore's 207 on his way to one of the closest victories in American history. This year Mr. Bush carried 255 congressional districts, nearly six in 10. The number of "turnover" districts--those voting for a House member of one party and a presidential candidate of the other--continues to shrink, mostly due to the growth of straight-ticket voting and gerrymandering. There were only 59 such districts in 2004, compared with 86 in 2000 and 110 when Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole in 1996.

The best chances for Democrats to gain the 15 seats they need to take control of the House in 2006 are in these districts held by "Kerry Republicans." The problem is that there are so few of them. John Kerry carried just 18 GOP House members' districts, while Mr. Bush carried 41 Democratic ones.

[Mo1]

FYI

[prairiebreeze]

Good news overall. Except for the prospect of Hilldabeast campaigns that is.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Thanks for the ping. For those interested:

[Bahbah]

Thanks, BSF. I didn't realize that "my" part of Wisconsin went for Bush.

[RoseofTexas]

WOW! New Mexico is slowly becoming a RAT state! I had no idea how far the INFESTION of RATS have taken over NM! Sad to see one of NM biggest city Albuquerque slowly become a liberal town! :( Nice town too!

[uglybiker]

...Anthony Weiner, a former aide to Senator Chuck Schumer...

Huh-huh-huh! Schumer had a Weiner. But he doesn't any more. Huh-huh-huh!

[UB355]

Any body have a 2004 vote by county version of this ?

[centurion316]

"Episcopalians have a declining use for George Bush," says Mr. Barone.

Interesting comment. I am an Episcopalian, and I have a declining use for the Episcopal Church.

[AgThorn]

True, Hispanic voters were attracted to Mr. Bush for reasons that may not easily transfer to other Republicans. "He is seen as simpatico in terms of his strong religious faith, his willingness to speak some Spanish, school choice and a desire to help small business owners prosper," says Martha Montelongo, a talk show host in California. Obviously, calls for Republicans in government to crack down on illegal immigration can create cross-pressures that could endanger GOP support among Hispanics, but those are often exaggerated. Hispanics rank immigration low among their list of priority issues, and last November exit polls show that 47% of Hispanics in Arizona voted for Proposition 200, a measure designed to limit government services to illegal immigrants and prevent them from voting. "The Hispanics who voted for George Bush largely reject identity politics and simply want to be respected, rather than pandered to," says Ms. Montelongo.

Amen ... quit being a mamby pamby on the illegal alien issues, Dubya. We need clarity, enforcement, security, clear citizen and voter identification and LASTLY a defined guest worker program. And the "legal" Latino's DON'T disagree.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"New Mexico is slowly becoming a RAT state! I had no idea how far the INFESTION of RATS have taken over NM! Sad to see one of NM biggest city Albuquerque slowly become a liberal town!"

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Bush carried NM. Kerry carried the Albuquerque-based 1st CD by only like 50%-49%, but Republican Congresswoman Wilson easily won reelection. So don't worry, the NM GOP is still very much alive.

[stands2reason]

Taken over? Are you kidding? Those blue areas are a lot of Indian reservations and assorted hippies, and some Spanish/Mexican families who are still pi$$ed about stuff that happened 500 years ago.

[AuH2ORepublican]

You're right about the Indians and hippies voting Democrat, but the only heavily Democrat congressional district in NM happens to be the one with the lowest percentage of Hispanics (although it does have Santa Fe Hispanics, who for some reason are very liberal).

[Kenny Bunkport]

Look at that slithering blue district in North Carolina.

[Kenny Bunkport]

Once again it's pretty clear that 'rats are concentrated in over-populated urban hellholes.

And what is it about 'rats and water? Puget Sound, the Columbia River (Portland), the Pacific coastline, northern Atlantic, and the Mississippi River -- all blue. Now, if we melt the polar ice caps, we can inundate those areas....

[Kuksool]

The map puts in doubt the famed "Emerging RAT Majority" that the MSM likes to crow about.

[Kuksool]

[Take Texas, where six of the state's 32 House districts have Hispanic representatives (five Democrats and one Republican) and another 69%-Hispanic district is represented by Anglo Democrat Lloyd Doggett. In the areas that now make up those seven districts, Mr. Bush dramatically increased his vote totals over 2000, winning four of the seven districts and breaking even in their total popular vote. In two of the Democratic Hispanic districts, Mr. Bush won 55% of the vote, setting up the possibility that a Republican could win those seats when they become vacant. ]


When TX redraw its Congressional maps, I really wanted them to create districts that would elect Hispanic Republicans. The presence of minority Republicans with power gives the Far Left heartburn.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"When TX redraw its Congressional maps, I really wanted them to create districts that would elect Hispanic Republicans."

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You're telling me? I actually drew maps creating 8 Hispanic-majority CDs in South and West Texas that would have given Bush solid majorities in 2000 (and I think that with better data I could draw 2 GOP-leaning Hispanic-majority CDs in Houston and 1 GOP-leaning Hispanic-majority CD in Dallas). Even if Texas Republicans didn't want to be as aggressive as what I had in mind, they missed a golden opportunity of drawing a half-dozen congressional districts for Hispanic Republicans. As it is, the GOP has a shot at picking up Ruben Hinojosa's 16th CD and (pro-life Democrat) Solomon Ortiz's 27th CD when the incumbents retire; while Bush (barely) carried the 28th CD, it would be much more difficult for us to win there, and our best chance would be if former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio (who was narrowly defeated by Henry Cuellar in the 2004 primary) beats Cuellar in the 2006 primary and we run a Hispanic Republican from the Laredo area such as Quico Canseco (who unfortunately was defeated in the GOP run-off last year).

BTW, Fund was incorrect when he said that there are 5 Hispanic Democrats in the Texas delegation. There are only four, since ultraliberal Lloyd Doggett is not the only Anglo Democrat representing an overwhelmingly Hispanic constituency; Anglo Democrat Gene Green, who is fairly moderate on many issues, has represented the 29th CD since its creation in 1992 (surviving a few close primary shaves in the early 1990s, but coasting to reelection since then).