Hey China - don't get THIS guy mad at you! Remember what happened the last time?
Posted on 04/01/2005 4:04:29 PM PST by Bald Eagle777
The government said Friday gas deposits in Japanese waters were linked to the Chinese area of a contentious gas field in the East China Sea and threatened to grant drilling rights to domestic companies if Beijing did not stop projects in the area.
China likely will begin drilling for the gas as early as summer, removing Japan's natural resources in the process.
The government informed Beijing of the results of its investigation and issued a fervent demand that development in the area be halted.
If Beijing does not accede to the request, the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry, under whose jurisdiction exploratory drilling falls, will begin procedures to give private businesses the right to prospect near the edge of the gas field.
Beijing inevitably will protest such a move, creating potential for the situation to develop into a major diplomatic issue between the countries.
In February, the ministry announced interim results in its investigation, which began in July and focused on an area between 2 kilometers and 4 kilometers east of the demarcation of Japanese and Chinese waters.
At the time, the ministry reported, "There is a very high possibility the Japanese fields are linked to those on the Chinese side of the border."
But in Friday's announcement, the ministry said it was able to gather data on Japanese territory right up to the median line and had subsequently found the two natural gas fields China is developing--Chunxiao and Duanqio--were linked to gas deposits on the Japanese side.
Along with a demand that Beijing stop the project, the government also renewed its request that the Chinese government hand over data on the structure of the fields beneath the seafloor.
After learning of the results, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Shoichi Nakagawa spoke to reporters regarding the possibility of setting up prospecting rights for private companies. "If the Chinese don't respond to our demands within a week, we'll start work on granting prospecting rights," he said.
The Chinese government says development of the fields is not an issue as the median line in the East China Sea is further east than Japan claims.
China has continued to show no intention of cooperating on the issue. At a working-level meeting between the two countries Thursday, Cui Tiankai, head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs Department, said, "We're aware of Japan's concerns."
In general, it will take one to two months to grant prospecting rights to private businesses.
However, there are fears the situation could grow tense if exploratory drilling went ahead and Beijing were to dispatch the Chinese Navy to interfere in the project.
The Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry will make a general decision concerning possible action after consulting with the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Agency and the Japan Coast Guard.
"Although it's been possible, according to Japanese law, to begin exploratory drilling, we haven't explored the option until now," Nakagawa said. "But if China continues to develop the area, there's nothing left for Japan to do, but go to the next step and protect the country's interests. While trying to maintain amity between our two countries, we'll both do what we can to benefit from the resources."
With China-Russian joint military maneuvers tentatively planned for fall '05, this region could be rather "interesting" even by December.
I say we re-militarize Japan and bring their naval strength to WW-II levels, plus arm Taiwan to the teeth, starting with the 8 subs they need.
As an additional deterrent, if the U.S. could DOUBLE its sub fleet (this would take time, plus Congress would have to increase the Navy's budget to bring on more LA and Seawolf Class boats) and forward deploy them all throughout the East China Sea, South China Sea, Sea of Japan and at the ends of the Taiwan Straits, we could have a reasonable first kill probability on the Chinese fleet. If China gets out of line, I believe it will be imperative to sink their entire Navy as promptly as possible. Controlling the Yellow Sea may be tricky initially, due to the proximity of Chinese ASW [air] assets in the region.
Make no mistake, the Pacific region is getting very “interesting” ..
Over 1/4 century ago my geography prof pointed to the region where Korea, China, Japan, and Russia meet as the likely locale of the spark of WW III. But, oil/gas fields could be even more important and make war or submission the simple choice.
Hey China - don't get THIS guy mad at you! Remember what happened the last time?
The bad news is that the U.S. can physically only build one new submarine per year now.
The good news is that's enough, provided our existing fleet isn't sabotaged or caught unawares.
Actually I'd take the Japanese Navy and be willing to give 15 points. It's either the 2nd or 3rd best Navy in the world, very close with the Brits. The ChiCom Navy is mostly junk and the crews are not well trained, as they spend little time at sea. Same is true of their Air Force.
We also have potent assets in the area, and can easily bring 5x the number of aircraft within 24hrs. The East China Sea is no place for our subs, except maybe a VA class. All that has to be done is get rid of the ChiCom fleet and all they have is a huge Army with no way to get to the war.
Japan oil firms to drill in East China Sea
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-01-16 14:31
Two Japanese companies plan to drill for oil and gas in the East China Sea in a bid to catch up with Chinese exploration in the area, a Japanese daily said on Sunday.
Exploration by Japan may heat up a long-running row with China over rights to resources at a time when relations between the two countries are at a low ebb over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to a controversial war shrine.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. Ltd and Teikoku Oil Co. were discussing exploration concessions with the government aimed at starting drilling by the financial year beginning in April, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun said.
Beijing and Tokyo disagree over the boundary between their respective economic zones.
Energy-poor Japan fears that Chinese exploration near what it regards as the border could result in Beijing siphoning gas from what Japan sees as its resources. Talks aimed at resolving the issue have made little progress.
Calls have grown from within the government for Japan to begin exploration as soon as possible, the Nikkei said.
Japan Petroleum and Teikoku Oil are likely to receive subsidies from the government for surveys and test drilling, the paper said.
If conflict breaks out in the East China Sea region, whether North Korea and Russia both back off and stay out of it are major factors. Ideally, China will back off on its energy claims (unlikely) and repeal its hard laws and rhetoric RE Taiwan, that would go a long way to diffuse the situation.
Natural gas and oil reserves off shore throughout the region complicate the picture. I have noticed an escalation in the rhetoric between Japan and China in the last several months. China's use of submarines to collect intelligence, test Japan's ASW capabilities and blundering forays in general are irresponsible provocations. China's consumption of oil is forecasted to be increasing in the near future by a factor of 150% by a credible, private National security oriented organization. It makes sense that China approached Saudi and Saudi, in a slap against the US (for Iraq), granted oil rights to China (I posted that awhile ago, that bit of news the MSM did not focus on was of MAJOR significance for U.S. oil interests). But China’s energy drive will not stop at deals with the Saudis and whoever else that can cajole.
Make no mistake, China is the aggressor/bully here. I have been saying that China's rapacious appetite for energy, and the greedy and blind way in which they go about their pursuit of it [energy], will definitely put them at odds with their neighbors.
The race is on as to who will develop the area around the Senkakus first, China or Japan.
Movements of Naval assets on either side will indicate how tense this situation may get. If ChiCom subs infiltrate Japanese waters, again, I say Japan should let the ChiComs have it and sink the intruding subs.
Get some popcorn, this show hasn't gotten really rolling ... yet.
Timely article, and nice map for all to visually see what is going on here.
Good work!
Yep....
Japan would have a tough time winning this dispute politically, as the entire gas field is outside of their claimed border.
Of course, the claimed Chinese border is ridiculous, but the Japanese would have to drill *inside* China's claimed border to even get close to that gas field.
The smart play for China would be to let Japan drill; the odds are that drilling outside of that gas field will simply come up with dry wells (an expensive waste of time and money), as Japan's claimed border merely comes *close* to China's gas field.
And once Japan abandoned those dry wells, China could then claim that Japan has abandoned its claim to that hyper-extended border.
Japan would have to drill on its extreme border, hit gas, and then win both the political/diplomatic and military confrontations that would ensue, merely to have a chance at making money off of this gas field. And for that small chance of success, Japan risks open war, diplomatic spankings, and a potential rollback of its claimed borders.
As a pro-Japanese fan, I'd have to recommend that Japan leave this issue alone. It's got "lose-lose" written all over it.
Are you overseas, or stateside?
Japan is the 2nd best to us. They would be equal to us if they had a large submarine force and a full-sized carrier force. Japan has like six Assault Carriers though. They carry Helicopters and Harriers.
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