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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND US LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY
Colorado State University ^ | April 1, 2005 | Dr. William Gray

Posted on 04/01/2005 12:13:30 PM PST by Strategerist

We foresee an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We have adjusted our forecast upward from our early December forecast and may further raise our prediction in our later updates if we can be sure El Niño conditions will not develop.

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

ABSTRACT Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons.

(Excerpt) Read more at hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hurricanes; tropics
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To: COEXERJ145

Somebody with a DU accout ought to post this over there so we can really get some big laffs!


21 posted on 04/01/2005 12:33:00 PM PST by GaltMeister (“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”)
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To: Red Badger

No. What are they? Do they replace the screws?


22 posted on 04/01/2005 12:46:15 PM PST by OpusatFR (Just because you put lipstick on a pig doesn't mean it smells better.)
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To: OpusatFR

They are metal Z-Shaped clips that fit between the plywood and the window frame of the house whether brick or wood. The wedge the plywood in the window hole without screws nails or damage to the house. They pop out easily when the storm is over and are re-useable. The wood is up and in the window in about 15 seconds. If you are handy with metal you can make your own........


23 posted on 04/01/2005 12:50:45 PM PST by Red Badger (I'd rather be a Crack-er than a Crack Ho........)
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To: brytlea

My in-laws live south of Vero Beach...they purchased roll-down metal shutters a few years ago and are now very glad they have them. Of course my Old Fart Father-in-law now thinks he's prescient!


24 posted on 04/01/2005 12:54:17 PM PST by Hornet19 (Know what happens to a Democrat that takes Viagra? He just gets a little taller.)
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To: mike182d

Oh, Sh


t!


25 posted on 04/01/2005 12:56:29 PM PST by SWAMPSNIPER (Let Me Die on My Feet in the Swamp, BUAIDH NO BAS)
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To: Red Badger

Oh joy! Isn't that much better! Thanks


26 posted on 04/01/2005 1:02:49 PM PST by OpusatFR (Just because you put lipstick on a pig doesn't mean it smells better.)
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To: Red Badger

Oh joy! Isn't that much better! Thanks


27 posted on 04/01/2005 1:02:54 PM PST by OpusatFR (Just because you put lipstick on a pig doesn't mean it smells better.)
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To: Strategerist
Image hosted by Photobucket.com
28 posted on 04/01/2005 1:05:15 PM PST by TXBSAFH (Never underestimate the power of human stupidity--Robert Heinlein)
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To: Strategerist

I’ll wait until December to make my hurricane predictions for 2005.


29 posted on 04/01/2005 1:05:57 PM PST by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink.)
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To: Strategerist

I'm thinking hurricanes are going to make landfall quite a few times this year ... in Florida.


30 posted on 04/01/2005 1:06:27 PM PST by Centurion2000 (Nations do not survive by setting examples for others. Nations survive by making examples of others)
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To: OpusatFR

Another method my wife and I came up with for Ivan:

Rigid foam inserts for the windows. Either styrofoam or other stiff "shipping" type closed cell foam (1-2" thick) cut to the shape of the window and wedged tightly in the window frame. We had 130 mph winds that took out 15 trees in our yard but the foam in the windows didn't budge........


31 posted on 04/01/2005 1:20:44 PM PST by Red Badger (I'd rather be a Crack-er than a Crack Ho........)
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To: Red Badger

That is a great idea. We had to evacuate, and when we returned, the dining window's plywood was bowed. Something struck it very hard.

Our neighbor had six trees drop onto his house, pool, cabana, and was just disgusted.

Trees. Can't cut them all down though. 130 mph would tear this place up completely. ~sigh~

I've always wanted to design a modern house.


32 posted on 04/01/2005 1:23:54 PM PST by OpusatFR (Just because you put lipstick on a pig doesn't mean it smells better.)
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To: OpusatFR

I don't have to worry about trees anymore..........


33 posted on 04/01/2005 1:27:39 PM PST by Red Badger (I'd rather be a Crack-er than a Crack Ho........)
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To: Strategerist
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)

CRAP! And that's for a major hurricane, not just one of those that knocks potted plants and your barbecue into the pool.

34 posted on 04/02/2005 11:05:29 AM PST by Dog Gone
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