Posted on 03/31/2005 12:14:59 AM PST by Righty_McRight
Unemployment in Germany rose sharply in March for the third consecutive month, although economists warned that much of the jump reflected statistical changes.
The statistics, to be officially released today, will show a seasonally adjusted rise of 92,000 in the number of job seekers to 4.9m. The figures, published yesterday by Reuters and confirmed by people close to the Federal Labour Office, were substantially higher than economists had expected.
The unadjusted numbers should show a fall of 41,000 to 5.17m, which could lift some of the political pressure on Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's government since the headline figure breached the 5m mark for the first time in January.
Although rocketing unemployment is the most formidable challenge to face the government in the past 12 months, economists have long warned that statistical distortions introduced by recent labour market reforms had made the data difficult to interpret.
Today, politicians from the ruling coalition are expected to focus on the fall in the unadjusted figures, while economists probe the higher- than-expected jump in the seasonally corrected data.
"On the face of it, 92,000 additional jobseekers looks like a huge rise," said Dirk Schumacher, economist at Goldman Sachs, the investment bank. "The question is how much of it is statistical and how much is cyclical."
The Labour Agency is likely to give an estimate today of how much of the rise can be blamed on Hartz IV, the government's latest labour market reform, which came into force in January.
Under the reform, welfare recipients who had not been included in the jobless statistics are now accounted for in the figures. Economists estimate the bulk of the 500,000 additional job seekers recorded since January reflected such statistical changes.
Struggling to make sense of the official data, economists have turned to the unemployment components of business sentiment surveys for additional understanding of the German labour market. "What we see there certainly does not point to an improvement, but it does not suggest a deterioration either," Mr Schumacher said.
Allowing for statistical distortions experts agree that German companies have yet to resume hiring and investment despite an impressive rise in profits last year.
Mr Schröder showed some impatience at the weekend, when he said the "endless talk" by managers about shifting jobs abroad had to stop.
A survey by the GfK polling group published yesterday showed consumers had downgraded their growth and income expectations for the second consecutive month.
could not find the right word, gone to top 20. I got my fact from the CIA fact book.
I know. It is a substantial difference though. But just like there's a genius in every class..... =P
I see you don't have the slightest clue about America, how unemployment is calculated, and how the economy operates. With your media, i don't necessarily blame you, but you did come to Free Republic. My advice to you is spend a little more of your time here.
It might have had an effect but I think it is a minor effect. IMO, Germany's unemployment problems have been caused by the EU. The borders between most EU countries are wide open. Germany has incredibly restrictive labor laws which make it near impossible fire unproductive workers, and employers are required to give their workers a disproportionately high number of expensive benefits. Businesses are getting tired of this, and the high taxes imposed on them, and are moving out of Germany to countries with cheaper labor like neighboring Poland and Czech.
They can cook the books all they want but I don't see how Germany's unemployment problems are going to go away until their society as a whole realizes that overregulation of businesses and mandatory, overly generous benefit packages for workers is counterproductive. The government has been trying recently to roll back some of these welfare benefits but their efforts are being met with pretty strong resistance from a population that has expected the government to provide everything for them for decades.
Of course, I'm no expert on these matters, but I think I've been in this country long enough to at least be able to see the effects of major problems like this.
Well I am probably as enlighten as many of you because I went to Business school in the US. I just follow my own opinon. I watch news on different channels. I read news in both conservative newspapers and more left oriented newspaper. I am pro market. My view of the world comes from not trusting one channel of news. I look at both Fox news and CNN being not able to have balanced news. Its inflitrated and distorted. In one channel every thing is pro and the other everything is against
“Yet another failed socialist regime.” You say
They will NEVER EVER admit this. Even as they dismantle their socialist state, they will claim they were right.
By the way. Reagan didn't bring down the wall. Nuclear deterrence didn't work. The changes in the Middle East are not because of Bush. It’s all about oil! (Sarcasm off)
Red6
You mean to tell me that deciding a kids future in grade 7 by committee is not the best answer? :)
Red6
"The electoral weight of the former eastern zone has opened the door to the socialist policies that wrecked Germany" You say
EVERY election in Germany post unification was decided by what the former East (DDR) voted. You're 100% on it. Unfortunately, this has led to a situation where they are stuck in a rut and can't seem to effectively pass reforms to revitalize their economy. Germany was always a liberal state and left leaning. Now they are way left, even if some deny this.
You can’t take 40 years of indoctrination and expect it to vaporize over night when the wall fell. Despite most Easterners saying “Erich Honeker is bad”, much of the ideology lives on today. In some places, the former Communist party of the past gets 20% of the votes!
Even the relationship Germany/US has changed because of Germany’s slide to the left. Our position has not changed much in all reality.
Red6
Did they start picking out new uniforms yet?
Maybe, if he has time, Dubya will spred democracy to Germany too.
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