Posted on 03/31/2005 12:14:59 AM PST by Righty_McRight
Unemployment in Germany rose sharply in March for the third consecutive month, although economists warned that much of the jump reflected statistical changes.
The statistics, to be officially released today, will show a seasonally adjusted rise of 92,000 in the number of job seekers to 4.9m. The figures, published yesterday by Reuters and confirmed by people close to the Federal Labour Office, were substantially higher than economists had expected.
The unadjusted numbers should show a fall of 41,000 to 5.17m, which could lift some of the political pressure on Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's government since the headline figure breached the 5m mark for the first time in January.
Although rocketing unemployment is the most formidable challenge to face the government in the past 12 months, economists have long warned that statistical distortions introduced by recent labour market reforms had made the data difficult to interpret.
Today, politicians from the ruling coalition are expected to focus on the fall in the unadjusted figures, while economists probe the higher- than-expected jump in the seasonally corrected data.
"On the face of it, 92,000 additional jobseekers looks like a huge rise," said Dirk Schumacher, economist at Goldman Sachs, the investment bank. "The question is how much of it is statistical and how much is cyclical."
The Labour Agency is likely to give an estimate today of how much of the rise can be blamed on Hartz IV, the government's latest labour market reform, which came into force in January.
Under the reform, welfare recipients who had not been included in the jobless statistics are now accounted for in the figures. Economists estimate the bulk of the 500,000 additional job seekers recorded since January reflected such statistical changes.
Struggling to make sense of the official data, economists have turned to the unemployment components of business sentiment surveys for additional understanding of the German labour market. "What we see there certainly does not point to an improvement, but it does not suggest a deterioration either," Mr Schumacher said.
Allowing for statistical distortions experts agree that German companies have yet to resume hiring and investment despite an impressive rise in profits last year.
Mr Schröder showed some impatience at the weekend, when he said the "endless talk" by managers about shifting jobs abroad had to stop.
A survey by the GfK polling group published yesterday showed consumers had downgraded their growth and income expectations for the second consecutive month.
Not really. As long as you continue to search for work you are still counted as unemployed by the BLS.
Even then, there are still alternate measures of unemployment available here.
Here's one example (in German):
tagesschau.de....Zahl der Arbeitslosen im März leicht gesunken
"Welt", "FAZ" and "N24" had the same type of report. They have the Finance Minister, Cement, saying that they have bottomed out and are now moving upwards. He's predicting they will go under the 5 million unemployed mark this spring.
I haven't seen anything on "Spiegel", though.
I'm curious why these articles and that from your post are so contradictory. Maybe I'm missing something completely obvious.
longjack
longjack
"Germans especially, seem to think that problems with regulations can be solved by making more regulations."
Its going to be fun to watch these maroons. Germany is a manufacturing economy, which means its going to go one on one with the most unregulated nation out there today, China.
At least if it was India.. sure cheaper labor, but a slower and less efficient government. With China the only way to compete will be deregulation. Which the Germans will never do. As it sounds in the article they are already talking additional regulations to solve the problems. Which China is further deregulating industries..
At least in America there is voices defending lowering taxes and lowering regulations. And many of our states competing well in new America, the red states.. have pro-business set ups. For example the right to work laws, which stop unionization.
If it hurts germany its gotta be good.
Hey germans, poor econemy? couldn't happen to a more deserving place you ratt bastards.
"From 1975 almost all the economic gains have been "given" the top 20% of the population."
You mean gains in income? I have a hard time believing this, judging from the lifestyle enhancements of everyone else-- larger homes, more, and more expensive cars, etc.. Additionally, given income mobility in this country, almost none of the people who were low-income in 1975 are still in that category.
Are you series?
Norway has a population of 4.5 million people, smaller than several US cities.
Also, tax money spent on defense goes to every American, genius.
National defense is in everyone's interest.
Also, economic gains over the past 30 years have not "been given" to the "top 20%" - that's Democratic propaganda. The average income of almost all Americans has increased substantially over the past 30 years.
You should know better than to post Democrat talking points on FR.
One of the biggest income mobility is people aging too. For example some kid washing dishes just out of high school isn't going to make as much.. As that same kid who now is a specialist welder with a couple guys under him, 25 years later.
Remember the post-war economic disaster that was East Germany?
Well guess what happened.
When the Cold War came to an end, the West Germans decided that it would be a good idea to emulate the East Germans and replace capitalism with Marxism.
Nevermind that capitalism was responsible for the West German economic miracle--as well as the U.S. economic miracle and all the other economic miracles of the world.
Nevermind that Marxims was responsible for the East German catastrophe.
And nevermind that Marxism has resulted in nothing but failure and economic, political, and social devastation everywhere it has been tried. And nevermind that a totalitarian, tyrranical government is its prerequisite.
Why would the West Germans decide to do this?
They must have been asleep at the wheel.
Or maybe they succumbed to the deadly, suicidal sickness of decadence that has swept the West like the plague of past centuries and promises to be far more devastating.
And remember: Millions of Americans--including the Democrat Party--are working overtime to make the U.S.A. follow the example of West Germany and to spread this deadly, suicidal sickness of decadence throughout America.
Thank God for the American Heartland!
Germans live by rules. They have to be told what to do and how to do it. There is no creativity or desire to do better. Most of the public have given up on getting ahead and simply want a house of their own and a retirement. Few dream of getting into a business of their own. And if they did dream of a business...the rule-mafia would stop them in their tracks. I have lived here for 12 years...and just getting a car inspected is so silly...that I simply pay my mechanic $50 and ask him to drive it down to argue with the dimwits. He knows every rule by heart and knows how to argue with them. The same is true with the garbage police (the dimwits who come around to inspect if you separating your regular garbage from your plastic or paper). You start laughing about the amount of policing required in this society and how it will continue to grow and become more difficult to maintain.
This was one time where I predicted wrong. Well, one among many.
I thought the re-unification of Germany would mean about a decade of economic difficulty as the West absorbed the East, upgraded the infrastructure, and then a united Germany would take off economically and lead the development of the former Warsaw Pact nations. From a purely economic standpoint, that's what should have happened.
I ignored the political ramifications of the reunification. The Easterners were predominantly a bunch of molly-coddled socialist parasites who wanted "security" over opportunity, and they vote their convictions. It's the result of too many years exposure to the command economy. The narrow margin of CDU over SDU that previously existed became unbalanced with the SDU picking up their pink eastern brethren.
The electoral weight of the former eastern zone has opened the door to the socialist policies that wrecked Germany. It's Stalin's final revenge against his German tormentors. Now his legacy has ruined not just the Eastern half of Germany, but the formerly prosperous Western half.
I know exactly what you are talking about. I've been here for 6 years now and didn't notice right away. At first I was all absorbed with being in another country and seeing the seemingly attractive on the outside illusions here. However, after I reached about 2 or 3 years of being here it started to become very obvious that things are not what they appear here.
I could not imagine a more stagnant society. Nothing ever changes here. There is no progress. The people's lives here, their careers, success, status, etc., are basically decided before they even enter high school. And once your on the path choosen for you it is incredibly difficult to change your status for the better. It is a society of an enforced middle class and no one seems especially happy about anything.
*****Compare to the GDP per capita of Luxembourg the US and other rich countries look like the third world.*****
Luxembourg is the exception, but I dont think that being tied for 2nd place implies "3rd world" appearance....
Per capita GDP
1 Luxembourg $ 55,100 2003 est.
2 Norway $ 37,800 2003 est.
3 United States $ 37,800 2003 est.
4 Bermuda $ 36,000 2003 est.
5 Cayman Islands $ 35,000 2002 est.
6 San Marino $ 34,600 2001 est.
7 Switzerland $ 32,700 2003 est.
8 Denmark $ 31,100 2003 est.
9 Iceland $ 30,900 2003 est.
10 Austria $ 30,000 2003 est.
I predicted wrong too; I thought the re-unification of Germany would do exactly what you thought it would. I had not explained, to myself, what actually happened nearly as clearly as you did, but you are right on target.
After years of Marxist tyrrany, economic devastation, and envying the brilliant capitalist miracle of West Germany, it seems that the East Germans would embrace capitalism and liberty with passion and enthusiasm and would want no part of Marxism.
What a splendid assesment you give!
I read your Profile, and once agains I was impressed. I too have only contempt for Leftists and all that they stand for--and that includes Democrats and the Democrat Party. It is the party of sociopaths and fools. My parents, grandparents, and great grandparents were ALL Democrats; it was a different party then. If they were alive today, they would repudiate the Democrat Party immediately and in no uncertain terms. My children are ALL Republicans.
Thank you. I didn't realize it myself but for some of the articles longjack has been pinging me with, so I thank him greatly.
Hopefully, the economic chaos is so bad that the population will wake up and turn out the SDU. Maybe it's already happening in Schleswig-Holstein.
Germany was different than the other former commie states, even Russia. In those nations, the commies were thoroughly discredited, and in the former WP countries were seen as "collaborators" with the Soviets. In Germany, there was a "viable" communist party already operating in the Western half; the SDU. It was very easy for them, as a "legitimate" political institution, to pick up the votes in the east.
I was exaggerating a little bit, but
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