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Al-Qaeda's Strategy Until 2020
The Jamestown Foundation ^ | March 17, 2005 | Stephen Ulph

Posted on 03/26/2005 11:50:08 AM PST by quidnunc

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New Online Book Lays Out al-Qaeda's Military Strategy

An interesting new publication to hit the web gives insight into the thinking of an al-Qaeda strategist on the next stages of the struggle. Posted on the al-Ikhlas jihadi forum [http://ekhlas.com/forum] the work is entitled Idarat al-Tawahhush, "The Management of Barbarism," further defined as "the phase of transition to the Islamic state." Due to the strategic importance of the document, Terrorism Focus has undertaken an in-depth examination of the Arabic text.

Published by the Center of Islamic Studies and Research (an al-Qaeda affiliate), the 113-page work ‘Management of Barbarism' aims to map out the progressive stages of establishing an Islamic state, from early beginnings in defined areas in the Arabian Peninsula, or Nigeria, Jordan, the Maghreb, Pakistan or Yemen, and its subsequent global expansion. The author is Abu Bakr Naji, a name familiar from his contributions to the Sawt al-Jihad online magazine (which are republished at the end of this book).

By "Management of Barbarism" the author refers to the period just after the collapse of a superpower, the period of "savage chaos". It appears pointedly to be a method of not repeating the experience of Afghanistan prior to the rule of the Taliban, and of improving controls over the periods experienced, for instance, in Somalia after the fall of Siad Barre.

Contents

After ample prolegomena on Middle East history and the causes of the rise and fall of superpowers, the book substantially falls into five broad themes:

1) Definition of ‘Management of Barbarism'
2) The Path of Empowerment
3) The Most Important Principles and Policies
4) The Most Pressing Difficulties and Obstacles
5) Conclusion – demonstrating jihad as the ideal solution

Jihadi strategy

The ‘Path of Empowerment' theme constitutes the strategy of the mujahideen. In this the author further sub-divides into three distinct phases:

1) The Disruption and Exhaustion phase
2) The Management of Barbarism phase
3) The Empowerment phase

In the first "Disruption and Exhaustion" phase, the mujahideen are to a) exhaust the enemy's forces by stretching them through dispersal of targets and b) "attract the youth through exemplary targeting such as occurred at Bali, Al-Muhayya and Djerba."

-snip-

(Stephen Ulph in The Jamestown Foundation, March 18, 2005)
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1 posted on 03/26/2005 11:50:08 AM PST by quidnunc
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To: quidnunc
1) The Disruption and Exhaustion phase = democrats in 2000
2) The Management of Barbarism phase = kicking islamic butt.
3) The Empowerment phase = feminism
2 posted on 03/26/2005 12:03:19 PM PST by Gunrunner2
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To: quidnunc
"Al-Qaeda's Strategy Until 2020."

They do not need a strategy they just have to ask the black robed dictators and their wish will granted.
3 posted on 03/26/2005 12:14:23 PM PST by YOUGOTIT
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To: quidnunc
The first, achieved, step in this strategy was to regionalize the struggle with the United States.

Yeah, yeah, sure, I'm sure they did that on purpose. It was their plan all along, I'm telling you!

4 posted on 03/26/2005 12:38:01 PM PST by mhx
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To: quidnunc

Nukes. Nukes will solve it all. ISLAM will take the whole world into Hell with themselves.


5 posted on 03/26/2005 12:39:37 PM PST by jolie560
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To: Velveeta; Calpernia; neosgirl; Tuba Guy; JesseJane; TexasCowboy; Chieftain; TexKat; ...

Ping


6 posted on 03/26/2005 12:52:45 PM PST by nw_arizona_granny (The enemy within, will be found in the "Communist Manifesto 1963", you are living it today.)
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Umm, does the strategy take into account Muslims in Iraq kickin' their butt? How about Lebanon wanting to be free? Iran putting the boot to the mullahs? Syria crumbling without it's "empire." Egypt, Jordan moving to democracy?

No?

I love it when a totalitarian plan falls apart.


7 posted on 03/26/2005 12:54:40 PM PST by D-fendr
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To: quidnunc

Yep. It was the plan all along to lure US into their region and fight. Like the boxer whose plan it was to hurl his face, eyeball first , into a flying fist.


8 posted on 03/26/2005 1:20:02 PM PST by Nateman (Islam sucks!)
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To: D-fendr
This article reminds me of a fight I observed when I was a yonker. Asked why he got his a$$ kicked, this kid answered, "Well I could have whipped the other guy easily, but my mommy doesn't want me fighting."
Remember these Taliban and Al Qaeda types were predicting that Allah was going to destroy the "Great Satan" after the U.S. went into Afghanistan? Remember Bagdhad Bob was telling the world the U.S. army was getting a serious a$$-kicking, while Abhrams tanks were seen manuevering in the background? Now the great strategic thinkers of Al Qaeda are telling us they got their butts kicked out of Afghanistan and their insurgency in Iraq is failing and democracy is breaking out in the ME because it is part of a very subtle and crafty grand strategy by the "Islamic Nation." Sure, they could have licked the "Great Satan" anytime, they just wanted to give him enough rope! Like the Nazis and Japanese imperialists, the extremists of the "Islamic Nation" are going very far in defeating themselves.
9 posted on 03/26/2005 1:40:00 PM PST by attiladhun2
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To: nw_arizona_granny

Well at least their admitting how long it will take us to wipe the last table-cloth wearing, fan-belt afixed head gear strutting one of them.


10 posted on 03/26/2005 2:21:18 PM PST by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country. What else needs to be said?)
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To: attiladhun2
Rep, McKinney, Lee, Boxer, Hillary, has paid for the shipment of 500,000 hogs from Iowa to Afghanistan mountains to make sure the Terrorist have enough to eat!

They feel the hogs will root out the terrorist and allow the US military to come home.

Harvard, Berkley, U of WI agree this is sound logic!
11 posted on 03/26/2005 2:25:23 PM PST by Tannerone
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To: quidnunc

1 Thanks for posting this.
2 "Al-Qaeda's Strategy Until 2020"
Aren't they making a big assumtion?


12 posted on 03/26/2005 3:08:01 PM PST by Valin (DARE to be average!)
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To: quidnunc

Al Qaeda who?

Besides, the Mayan Calendar says the world ends in 2012, so plan accordingly. ;)


13 posted on 03/26/2005 3:12:31 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: D-fendr

Agree. BUT (and isn't there always a but) This thing could fall apart just as fast as it's come together. We've been on a roll since 9-11, and pretty much had our way, I don't expect the radicalss to take it lying down. At some point they going to strike back hard. Maybe not here, but somewhere a lot of people are going to die because of these...people(?).


14 posted on 03/26/2005 3:16:33 PM PST by Valin (DARE to be average!)
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To: quidnunc

This is like the Nazi strategy for world domination. You see, losing WW2 was all part of the grand master plan so that the U.S. and Britain could let their guard down. Hitler faked his death. He had himself cryogenically frozen and stored in some underground freezer under some museum in Paris. Yeah, that's the ticket. With precise instructions to be unfrozen at some pre-determined future date. I'd tell you more but I'm sworn to secrecy. Yeah, that's the ticket! And if you don't believe me, just ask my wife, Morgan Fairchild.




15 posted on 03/26/2005 3:23:27 PM PST by SamAdams76 (Don't You Think This Outlaw Bit's Done Got Out Of Hand?)
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To: Valin

Yes, lots of things could go wrong, but we've avoided the main threat thus far: Losing our will to protect the people long enough for the seeds of freedom to sprout and take hold.

And yes, terrorists will be a problem for some time to come.

But if we read Bush's major policy statements since 9/11, we can see that he is calling upon the only forces stronger than this threat: truth and freedom and inalienable rights written on every human's heart.

This is a flowery way to say that we do not have to police and micromanage the globe in order to stop terrorism. Liberty is a more potent force than the totalitarianism of the radical Islamicists.


16 posted on 03/26/2005 4:03:32 PM PST by D-fendr
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"In 2003, Iran at one point offered to extradite Sayf al-Adel, whom it claimed to have under arrest, in exchange for Mujahideen-e Khalq Organization leaders, but Washington rejected the offer."

The only real reason the story ran is that sentence, which is just Bush-bashing.

The plans didn't allow for organized and systematic resistance...

The plans didn't allow for losing the control of the backwater in Central Asia from which to coordinate the global attacks, including Kashmir, Pakistan, western China, Chechnya...

The plans didn't allow for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, and had to create an ad hoc strategy for dealing with this eventuality...

The plans didn't allow for the loss of Lebanon as a base of operations, which is exactly what is going to happen...

The plans didn't allow for the overthrow of the mullahcracy of Iran and the despotate in Syria, which is exactly what is going to happen...

The plans didn't allow for the gradual starvation of terrorist efforts due to the squeeze on financial support...

The plans didn't consider what is going to happen when bin Laden, Zarqawi, and the other criminals hang by their necks 'til they're dead dead dead.


17 posted on 03/26/2005 10:25:50 PM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Friday, March 25, 2005.)
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To: quidnunc

It's 2005 and they're talking about 2020? meh... Power of positive thinking, I guess.


18 posted on 03/26/2005 10:26:53 PM PST by Zeroisanumber
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To: quidnunc

bttt


19 posted on 03/26/2005 10:30:48 PM PST by nopardons
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To: quidnunc
Al-Baddarin identifies from Sayf al-Adel's writings a core thesis explaining events — a regional war against the Americans.

Well I guess so after you get you ASSES handd to you in Afghnstan and then/currently in Iraq....idiots

20 posted on 03/26/2005 10:31:25 PM PST by stuck_in_new_orleans
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