U.S. General: Iraq Insurgency on Decline

AMMAN, Jordan - The military's top general gave his most optimistic public assessment on Thursday of progress in Iraq, saying the insurgency shows signs of slipping as the U.S.-led international effort gains momentum in building Iraqi police and military forces.

During a visit to a training base for Iraqi police cadets outside of Amman, Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in recalling his stop Monday in Iraq, "I came away more positive than I've ever been" about the prospects for overcoming the insurgency and stabilizing the country.

He also saw evidence, however, that obstacles remain, even for the Iraqis who are training in the relative safety of the Jordanian desert. Myers was told by his guide at the police training academy that some cadets have used water bottles as simulated weapons because the academy has not acquired enough rifles.

Myers said the number of attacks against U.S. forces across Iraq has fallen to between 40 and 50 a day, and about half of those cause no injuries or property damage. The number of daily attacks is about at the level of one year ago, he said — far fewer than in the weeks prior to the Jan. 30 elections.

"I think we're getting some momentum built up against the insurgency," he told reporters at his hotel in the Jordanian capital at the conclusion of a weeklong trip that also took him to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan.

Myers acknowledged that violence in Iraq continues to kill U.S. forces as well as Iraqi security forces and civilians.

The four-star general said he could not predict when the U.S. military would withdraw from Iraq. He said the extra 15,000 or so troops who were added during the run-up to the elections would be gone by the end of this month. That would leave the U.S. force at about 138,000 troops.

Myers also asserted that the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq was solid, despite Italy's announcement that it would withdraw its troops this fall and despite reductions in the contributions by Ukraine and other countries. Italy has said it will pull its troops "when security conditions warrant," Myers said.

During his Amman stop, Myers also visited Jordan's special operations command headquarters outside the capital and watched several dozen Iraqis demonstrate on a training range what they had learned in a 12-week counterterrorism course. Jordan's special operations forces are conducting the training, along with U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers.

With Myers standing almost within arm's reach, several Iraqis clad in black uniforms and firing live ammunition from M-16 rifles blasted their way into a mock residence, shooting the locks off doors, and tossing flash grenades that threw smoke and dust into Myers' face as he observed from a low-slung catwalk.

Asked by a reporter to rate the Iraqis on a scale of one to 10, with 10 being the competency of U.S. Special Forces, one of the U.S. trainers said they are about a five. More than half of the 99 Iraqis in the counterterrorism training had no prior military experience, officials said.

At the police academy, where about 3,400 Iraqi cadets are in an eight-week training course, Myers saw a demonstration of the skills they have learned for stopping suspicious vehicles, searching them for weapons and homemade bombs and arresting suspected terrorists or insurgents with minimum use of force.

Myers was told the entire curriculum for the police academy was overhauled after Lt. Gen. David Petraeus informed officials there last September that the program was not producing competent police officers. Instead of spending 75 percent of their time in classroom instruction and 25 percent in actual field training, the cadets are now getting less class time and more opportunity to practice on the training range.

The Iraqis also are getting some practical advice on survival skills, which are a high priority given the large number of police who are attacked by the insurgents. For example: At home, don't hang your laundered uniform on an outside clothes line, making your home a target for the insurgents.

The number of casualties of the coalition force have declined in the recent months as Operation Phantom Fury began. In January, the number of casualties increased once, but most were caused by accidents. After January, the average of casualties dropped sharp. Gen. Richard B. Myers said attacks against U.S. forces across Iraq has fallen to between 40 and 50 a day, while in the past few weeks, the maximum was around 70. Meanwhile numbers of casualties of coalition force have been low, Iraqi Security Force suffers four times the casualties of the coalition force according to the website of Strategy Page. However, inactivated (captured or killed) terrorists in Iraq is estimated around 15,000 until January 2005, according to Department of Defense officials. Iraqi Security Force reports 10,000 suspects are detained so that will indicate the remaining 5,000 have been killed. The estimated numbers of inactivated terrorists does not include heavily injured terrorists, those that may have died for non-combat reasons, and those that have gave up to continue the activities. Therefore, the number of inactivated terrorists should be larger than 15,000 if the estimated number by the officials is accurate for those that have been counted (counting dead bodies and those detained). In January, approximately 400 terrorist suspects have been captured. This number excludes terrorists dead which I was unable to collect data. Assuming this was to be the monthly average, comparing to the numbers of killed soldiers of coalition force but excluding casualties of Iraqi Security Force, terrorists are suffering more damage than the coalition force. Iraq Pipeline Watch indicates a drop of attacks on oil infrastructure since Operation Phantom Fury. In November 2004, attacks had hit the peak around 25, dropped to approximately 17 in December 2004, and once again dropped to 13 in January 2005 and February 2005.

Success of the security force may not be the only reason for the decline of coalition casualties. In February 2004, the casualties dropped to 23, after several weeks of devastating earthquake in Iran. The numbers of casualties doubled next month. Once again, two devastating earthquakes had hit Iran recently and in Lebanon people have protested against Syria calling for a retreat of Syrian force as numbers of casualties of the coalition force in Iraq is dropping. In Iran, the people have protested against the regime and clashed with the security force. Both Syria and Iran have supported the terrorists in Iraq with finance and arms. However, as Syria face a threat from Israel for the suicide bombing in Tel Aviv by terrorists in Syria which Israel announced possibilities for air raids, fears of attacks by US as Baathists in Syria have supported the terrorists in Iraq, and a chance for bloody clash in Lebanon, Syria is occupied by several problems. Iran is also facing multiple constrains, in specific, possibilities of air raids on nuclear facilities in Iran by Israel, reconstruction for the devastation of earthquake, and internal unrest by protests that may cause a revolution. Both Syria and Iran are occupied by several problems that may decrease support to the terrorists in Iraq. This will cause lack of arms, ammunition and explosives for terrorists in Iraq that have relied on support by Syria and Iran. As a conclusion, the terrorists are unable to maintain the pace of attacks resulting in a decline of casualties of the coalition force.

Reference:
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
Operation Enduring Freedom Fatalities
Iraq Pipeline Watch

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.