Posted on 03/07/2005 9:49:24 AM PST by Jeff Head
2005 Update By Jeff Head, February 2005 As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military. Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities. All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting. The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy. The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer. The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005. The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005. The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers. The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005. Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built. The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine. The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order. Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards. Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft. The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter. As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific. While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces. Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning. While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led. Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated. Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:
THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS
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The radar system on China's Type-051C & Type 052B class vessels were supposedly built with Ukranian help.One should remember that the Soviets were also working on phased array radars
No...they are not stupid...but they are also bent on control in the area and they are building a force to challenge our own. I believe within five to ten years, perhaps sooner if they do any kind of refit, they will have carriers in the area.
If they do, in any cross-strait confrontation, you can expect that a back channel message would be passed along very bluntly.
Thanks for the ping, Howlin!
Great post, Jeff! Produced an anxiety attack. ;)
When they reach self-sufficiency (and they are working towards it very rapidly) economically, expect to see things go south from there. They will end up owning all we have built and invested there, and will then literally shoot the proceeds of it back at our forces at some time in the future.
We need to turn around and treat them as Reagan did the Soviets, cutting off their funds, and challenging them to keep up if they can, bankrupting them in the process. Problem is, its already far enough advanced where it will be very painful for us to do so...but not as painful as allowing them to mature to the point of dictating things to us on their own terms.
The diesel electric subs are a joke. They would not last ten minutes in a war.
A bunch of them are the very latest Russian Kilo designs and they are building their own as well.
WalMart only bought $15 billion from China out of $198 billion total last year. But don't let the facts get in the way of your emotions, or your poor eyesight.
War in Spring '09 ping.
Upon the ill advised retreat of the US from SEA, SEATO fell apart. The core of SEATO was Thailand. In the late 1970s, under guidance from the USSR, Vietnamese troops took over Cambodia and eventually made incursions into Thailand. Lacking the once present US troops and bases, Thailand went to the PRC for help. A few months later, the PRC made an incursion into Vietnam. Thailand has, ever since, taken a path of relative neutrality vis a vis the US and the PRC. Meanwhile, the other remaining SEATO countries that did not fall to Communism during the 1970s have taken the Arabist / Islamist tack. While there has been a slight thaw more recently, none of them are reliable.
Can't be much more direct than that sign! Good stuff.
The FEDGOV did not grant MFN status on accident. They are either taking the bribe or are complicit with the CHICOM plan. Either way, we are screwed.
It's amazing that some people still refuse to see what's in front of their eyes.
What with all their IRBMs, MRBMs, and who knows, perhaps even their own export modified TU-95s, and TU-22Ms, air craft carriers might not buy them a whole lot. Furthermore, if they can establish some bases in Latin America, this would be even more true.
Our nuclear subs are quieter and go 35+ knots under water. I'll stand by my statement they won't last ten minuyes in a shooting war. That doesn't give them enough time to fire off those cruise missles.
A new SEATO should be built. COnsisting of the US, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea (if they get their @sses in gear instead of whining about us) and Australia.
"We cannot underestimate them."
I was thinking in that kind of environment the diesels could ride out submerged below a surface convoy then drop off and just sit on the bottom.
How long can they go without surfacing for air replenishment?
Thread from last year dealing with diesel subs.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1066829/posts
Post #10 references the Aussies using a diesel in war games with the US and sunk an LA class attack boat.
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