The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
2005 Update
By Jeff Head, February 2005


As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military.

Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities.

All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting.

The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy.

In the mean time, the Chinese are also modernizing their naval air forces at a rapid pace, acquiring or license building hundreds of modern SU-27, SU-27SK, and SU-30 aircraft from Russia, many with very credible strike at sea, air to surface missile capabiulities. They are also building their own new J-10 aircraft. Within the past two to three years these efforts represent a quantum leap in terms of the quality of the Red Chinese equipment and the rate at which they are being built or otherwise put into service.

Here are some recent pics.

The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer.


The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers.


The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005.


Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built.


The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine.


The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order.


Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards.


Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft.


The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter.

As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific.

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces.

Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning.

While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led.

Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.

Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head

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Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.

You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS

[Mac94]

It would take a pretty large arsenal to truely have a "MAD" equation. A few nukes in Taiwan's hand would offer a deterent via raising the price of military acion, but only one nation truely would risk destruction and that would be Taiwan. The question for China wouldn't be the destruction of the nation but whether the increased "pain" level in taking military action would still be worth it.

My point is that the release of nuclear weapons is not an easy thing, even in a crisis and it has emense political ramifications. The question is whether China could embark on a strategy that would fall short of invasion but still put military pressure on Taiwan to cave into Chinese demands. Short of all out invasion, could Taiwan afford the political cost of a nuclear release?

[Paul_Denton]

Thanks again for all your efforts to stop the tidal wave. Yes, it is still worth fighting for, even if we lose in the end.

Even sadder is our military using foreign weapons. "Stealth" littoral patrol boats from Norway, ammunition and electronics from Taiwan (better than China at least and at least we know that the Taiwan equipment works under combat conditons), I read that the US outsources military equipment from 22 countries.

If we go down, I say we take our enemies with us. If our death as a nation is inevitable than we should nuke China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and the EU as well.

[GOP_1900AD]

Not off hand. You can google it - it's all in well documented history. Commonly known stuff.

[OPS4]

Currently, our force structure is centered on 12 carrier battle groups and 12 amphibious ready groups. Yet, only the 12 carrier battle groups and 7 Tomahawk missile-equipped surface action groups that rotate through the Arabian Gulf are equipped to generate long-range striking power—giving us 19 independent strike groups. While our current amphibious ready groups are tremendously versatile and operationally valuable, they lack the long-range striking power and area control capabilities needed to operate independently against many of the enemies we will face in the decades ahead. Thus we must add to their capabilities, to produce expeditionary strike groups equipped to meet the demands of future naval operations.

[sukhoi-30mki]

That's also my view about the Varyag-it makes little sense to modernise that ship even from a Chinese point of view .IIRC,the Chinese purchased the decomissioned Aussie carrier,the Melbourne for scrap,which they stripped for studying.A non-Soviet carrier would anyway be more useful in most cases given that the dual role carried by a USSR carrier is close to non-existent.Besides,I do think that China would need massive international or Russian aid to modify the Varyag into something like the Admiral Gorshkov which is being radically modified for India.

[sukhoi-30mki]

It would be a pretty big risk bringing back the Iowa's if your intention is of using it against the PRC.China's military is not the world's greatest,but they have arguably invested more in anti-ship missiles than anyone else over the past decade & despite the Iowa's 40+ cruise missiles or 16 inche guns,the risk ain't worth it.

Jeff,the DD-X class will use a 155mm(6.1 inch) advanced gun system,not to different from today's army howitzers & will infact be able to fire shells further than the Iowa.

[in the Arena]

Good work Jeff...

[Stonewall Jackson]

I agree that enough cruise missiles could heavily damage or even sink one of the Iowa's, which is why they would probably never deploy without a number of SAM-heavy escorts and possibly one of the Tarawa or Essex-class amphibs carrying Harriers or the new F-35 (when they enter service), at least after the amphib's Marines have been put ashore to join the rest of their MEF.

[Stonewall Jackson]

The 8-inchers on the Salem-class heavy cruisers were the largest naval guns that utilized cased ammunition. Just like a giant 30-06, these guns could fire almost as fast as you could pull the trigger. If you ever get up to the Socialist Republic of Massachusetts, stop into Salem, where the cruiser Salem is a museum ship. I haven't been myself, but one of my friends visited last year and said that it was awesome.

[Mase]

I'll wager dollars to doughnuts that the vast majority of the individuals benefiting from the new found Chinese propserity are noneother than the same old communist party members from the old Maoist system. Problem is, when you have 7 or 8% of 1.3 billion, you are talking about 100 million individuals who are looking good. They can put on quite the show...and they do.
___________________________________________________

So these insiders and party apparatchiks who are obtaining incredible financial wealth, positions of power and a lifestyle filled with luxury are going to risk it all by making war on the free world? Hopefully they will provide a counter balance to those who would do such a foolish thing and don't seem to comprehend the concept of mutually assured destruction.

I've also traveled there regularly since 1987 and would disagree with your assessment. I see American businesses doing well there now after a difficult start. Cheap labor is only one reason why American companies are rushing to set up shop there. Most of them see a huge market to be developed and wish to get in and establish themselves now before the costs and barriers for entry become too great. The risks are many but the potential rewards make the risks worth taking.

The communist party realizes that they had better do something about the poverty and wealth gap or they will experience uprisings that will make Tianeman look like a party. How they address this problem will determine a great deal regarding the fate of China and its relationship with the free world.

[killjoy]

Not off hand. You can google it - it's all in well documented history. Commonly known stuff.

Not too well known since this is the first time I have ever heard your version of events. There was a Vietnamese sapper attack against U-Tapao Airbase in 1972 that blew up a few B-52s. Is that what you are talking about?

The February 1979 Chinese invasion of Vietnam happened becuase of the Vietnamese December 1978 invasion of Cambodia. This had nothing to do with Thailand.

For reference, see:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm

[GOP_1900AD]

RE: There was a Vietnamese sapper attack against U-Tapao Airbase in 1972 that blew up a few B-52s. Is that what you are talking about?

Nope, here's what I was referring to. I did have the dates out of sequence, though. Said incursion was in 1980 (however, there were threats prior):

http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpap006.cfm

"The turnaround in the Sino-Thai relations after December 1978 when the Vietnamese invaded and occupied Cambodia. The occupation brought the Vietnamese troops closer to the Thai border for the first time. The subsequent Vietnamese incursion into Thai territory at Non Mark Moon in Prachinburi province in July 1980 enhanced the Thai leadership's perception of the Vietnamese threat to Thai national security. Thailand faced a hostile and powerful enemy across the border.

"The Vietnamese incursion was an attempt to pressure Thailand to accept the Cambodian occupation as a "fait accompli." The Thai, on the contrary, viewed the Vietnamese action as a violation of the UN charter as well as international law. This not only affected Thai security but also destabilised the Southeast Asian region. Thailand mobilized ASEAN support by jointly calling for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Cambodia. Thailand and ASEAN pursued a strategy of pressuring and isolating Vietnam in the UN.

"Thailand saw the value of China after the Chinese in February 1979 attacked Vietnam along the border in order to teach the Vietnamese a lesson. China viewed the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia as an expansionist move to dominate the whole Indochina. Moreover, the close relationship between Vietnam and the Soviet Union made the Chinese suspect that their intention was to encircle China. Both Beijing and Bangkok recognized their mutual interest in resisting the expansion of Vietnamese influence in Indochina. China wanted to supply the Khmer Rouge with arms in the struggle to liberate Cambodia, and there was no better place for a logistics network than through Thailand.10 The Vietnamese occupation brought about a convergence of security interests between Thailand and China which in resulted in a strategic partnership. This strategic partnership covered many areas, strategic consultations, arms transfers as well as arms sales."

[GOP_1900AD]

RE: The risks are many but the potential rewards make the risks worth taking.

What if you are wrong? What are the downsides (both macroeconomic and geopolitical). Won't you at least address a more pessimistic scenario? Are you capable of this?

[dennisw]

Keep your eye on the Chinese submarines. The Chinese are into stealth and oblique warfare. Submarines can assassinate ships and cities with their torpedoes and missiles. The mere threat of undetectable ChiCom submarines off our coast can cause panic in the American people.

[Jeff Head]

As I said, in the true Free Market, everything you said is absolutely true. We are not deqaling with that here. When we trade in this fashion with ideologies and market systems that are not as much interested in competing with us economically as they are in destroying us physically, the paradigm shifts.

As John Adams said about our liberty itself...

"We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge, or gallantry, would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for the government of any other."- John Adams, Oct. 11, 1798

The same holds for the free market. For it to work as it was intended, it must be based on those same moral principles. When you deal with nations that represent the antithesis of that, your subvert and corrupt the free market and turn it into something else, alien to the principles, both economic and moral that that market is based upon...it turns to something much more akin to fascism.

I submit that trading with Hitler before World War II in the manner we are trading with the Communists in China would have been just as foolhardy.

Reagan challenged the Soviets, and made sure they understood what price was required to operarte in the free market. They bankrupted themselves against those reefs. After a period of correction, to make up for ground already lost to the current situation, so would the Chinese...that is (just as with the Soviets), unless they changed and became a true free market themselves.

I do not believe that will happen without serious pressure and confrontation from us for them to change and reform their system.

[Jeff Head]

We shall not lose.

There are yet tens of millions of good, honest, God fearing people in this nation who understand the score. There is a God in Heaven and the affairs of man are in His hands. Our society may well have to pay a stiff price in hardship and blood to atone for what has happened, but I believe, as the founders did, that He will not abandon us for the sake of those millions who do understand and who do look to the moral foundation of our liberty.

In the end, though battered and torn perhaps, the stars and stripes will fly over a free land in this nation...whether I personally live to see it or not, I have full faith that it shall be so.

[Jeff Head]

The JSF and a VTOL borne AWACS based on the Osprey would help singificantly in that regard and are all well within reach.

[Jeff Head]

We disagree. I believe the huge market, as long as the communists are still in power, is an illusion specifically intended to draw us there.

As to whether the communists will risk their wealth...it depends on how many ideologs there are amongst them, Usually, among the party faithful, the number if fairly high. We shall see...but they are playing the biggest Sun Tsu on us imaginable IMHO, and we'd best wake up to it. All warfare is deception.

[Mase]

"Won't you at least address a more pessimistic scenario? Are you capable of this?"
________________

I lived that scenario for three years trying to get our first manufacturing facility built there. The corruption, lack of infrastructure and bureaucracy were overwhelming but we managed to work through it and now have a thriving business unit selling to China and the rest of Asia. If the business climate was as bad as some here claim, additional businesses from all over the world would not be rushing to get in.

The politics are daunting and the nature of the despots controlling the country should be of grave concern to all who value freedom. Even so, I still believe that increasing economic ties between China and the rest of the world decreases the likelihood of Chinese aggression against other countries. I also believe that economic development and economic freedom will, eventually, lead to greater political freedom.

Even with stronger economic ties it is frightening that the EU is considering lifting its arms embargo against China. Lifting the embargo with China will only reward them for not improving their appalling human rights record and will further increase tensions across the Taiwan strait. So, yes, there is tremendous downside potential.

The average Chinese has no interest in the political ideology of the past and looks upon Hong Kong with great envy. The coastline of China is the wild west of capitalism and I hope it spreads inward and isolates the current leaders who dominate the masses and threaten the peace. I pray China's leaders will choose wealth over war. It makes more sense and the Chinese people adamantly agree. Even the party leaders have to pay some attention to public opinion.

[OKIEDOC]

One only need travel to any South American resort to see the effects of what giving up the Panama canal has done to American security.

The Chinese are every where and are more ruder than any human I have ever met.

They have set themselves up quite a base in Panama.

They and their agents are actively working to undermine Americas good intentions.

I emailed Fox, MSNBC, CNN and the major networks asking why Martha Stewart and Michael Jackson was more news worthy than the impending crisis looming just over the horizon.

Somebody besides just the people on this web site need to wake up to what is going on around us.

By maintaining a base of operations in Panama, China could effectively cut off our oil supplies from South America.

Wake American, think about that every time you purchase a cheap made item from Wal-Mart.

Every South American sea port I've been in is crammed with Chinese containers and ships. Jimmy Carter and the liberals sold us down the drain and for what?