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The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE
JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

Posted on 03/07/2005 9:49:24 AM PST by Jeff Head

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
2005 Update

By Jeff Head, February 2005


As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military.

Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities.

All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting.

The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy.

In the mean time, the Chinese are also modernizing their naval air forces at a rapid pace, acquiring or license building hundreds of modern SU-27, SU-27SK, and SU-30 aircraft from Russia, many with very credible strike at sea, air to surface missile capabiulities. They are also building their own new J-10 aircraft. Within the past two to three years these efforts represent a quantum leap in terms of the quality of the Red Chinese equipment and the rate at which they are being built or otherwise put into service.

Here are some recent pics.


The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer.


The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers.


The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005.


Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built.


The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine.


The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order.


Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards.


Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft.


The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter.

As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific.

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces.

Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning.

While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led.

Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.

Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head


Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.

You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:


THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS



TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: armsrace; chinesenavy; chinesethreat; dragonsfuryseries; freeperjeffhead; jeffhead; militarybuildup; plan; redchinanavy; redchinathreat; worldwariii
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To: judicial meanz

You better hope for two things:
1) That they don't all of the sudden double or triple their serial production of military ships.
2) That they are alone, and not accompanied in an axis by other very anti Western players.


161 posted on 03/07/2005 2:16:15 PM PST by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: Jeff Head

Yep. That's true. It will take another Pearl Harbor-like disaster to wipe away all the nonsensical thinking.


162 posted on 03/07/2005 2:17:08 PM PST by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: GOP_1900AD
We are already seeing it. They are producing EIGHT new CLASSES of major combatant ships, and each one is being produced at rates of two or more ships per year.

...and that is on a prepratory footing, not a war footing. If they get serious, they will be cranking out ships like we did at the end of WW II.

...and at that point, we'd better be prepared to bomb all of it into rubble very quickly and not pussy foot around with some type of regional playing field thingy around Taiwan.

If we got serious economically right now, we could mitigate it and shut it down before it gets into any high gear.

163 posted on 03/07/2005 2:18:21 PM PST by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: GOP_1900AD
You better hope for two things: 1) That they don't all of the sudden double or triple their serial production of military ships. 2) That they are alone, and not accompanied in an axis by other very anti Western players.

I hope they do not increase their ship production but it will probebly happen. Ours is in sad shape.

Every day, europe is siding more and more with China. The EU does not seem to care that there will be sanctions (which will ruin their economy even more than it is now), they are all gung ho about supporting China.

164 posted on 03/07/2005 2:20:13 PM PST by Paul_Denton (The UN is UN-American! Get the UN out of the US and US out of the UN! http://asiasec.blogspot.com/)
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To: Mase
Wow! 7.5% of Wal Mart's total purchases ($15 billion from China) takes up more than 70% of their shelf space.

Shelf space?!? Now where in the sam hill did you come up with SHELF SPACE???

Talk about....Wow!

165 posted on 03/07/2005 2:21:43 PM PST by houeto ("Mr. President , close our borders now!")
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To: Mase
OTOH, purchases from American based suppliers totaled $137.5 billion in 2004

And another thing, where a supplier is "based" has nothing to do with where the products are made.

166 posted on 03/07/2005 2:23:31 PM PST by houeto ("Mr. President , close our borders now!")
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To: judicial meanz

Conventionally, I agree, that's why if China were to make a move, they'd attempt to "defeat" us by sidelining us in the conflict so that the 7th Fleet or the USAF, etc. isn't a factor. The 7th would only become involved if attacked or given orders to do so, and if China can force us to the sidelines via political and economic carrots/sticks, then all the firepower the 7th Fleet has is pointless in a PRC/Tiawan war.


167 posted on 03/07/2005 2:23:53 PM PST by Mac94
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To: Mac94

Ultimatly Taiwan and Japan need nuclear weapons. If they had a nuclear deterrant than we would not be facing this crisis.


168 posted on 03/07/2005 2:24:54 PM PST by Paul_Denton (The UN is UN-American! Get the UN out of the US and US out of the UN! http://asiasec.blogspot.com/)
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To: GOP_1900AD
"You all are arguing about Wal Mart when you ought to be looking at computers, and other electronics, including even the innards of DoD equipment and weapons systems."
_____________________

Agreed. Just getting tired of being told that because I buy a space heater and some garden tools from Wal Mart that I'm enslaving people and compromising the security of the country.

Too many on these threads using emotion instead of facts to demonize a great American success story.
169 posted on 03/07/2005 2:26:23 PM PST by Mase
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To: GOP_1900AD
You all are arguing about Wal Mart when you ought to be looking at computers, and other electronics, including even the innards of DoD equipment and weapons systems. Is the Wal Mart debate a smoke screen, preventing substantive debate acout ICs, PCBAs, computuers, RF amplifiers, rare earth minerals, and the like?

I wish I'd never even MENTIONED Wal-Mart.

170 posted on 03/07/2005 2:26:52 PM PST by houeto ("Mr. President , close our borders now!")
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To: SeaDragon

Ping a ling


171 posted on 03/07/2005 2:27:33 PM PST by RikaStrom
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To: Jeff Head
If we got serious economically right now, we could mitigate it and shut it down before it gets into any high gear.

The problem is too many Western pockets getting rich off Chinese slave labor. There is no will to stop.

172 posted on 03/07/2005 2:30:10 PM PST by houeto ("Mr. President , close our borders now!")
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To: Paul_Denton

Well, it would make any Chinese move across the Strait a much greater risk.

In a calculated risk, though, could Taiwan, politically speaking, go nuclear in response to a naval blockade? Nukes would be advantageous in defending against an actual invasion and detering the Chinese from using it's nuclear weapons, but would a blockade strategy by China warrent such a response?

Taiwan using nuclear weapons in a struggle with China would be somewhat akin to Israel's Sampson option except for the near term it wouldn't have enough firepower to bring down the Chinese house. It would send Taiwan out in a blaze of glory, but would mean the end of Taiwan. Israel, though, has the internal fortitude (most likely) to use this type of weapon in such a way. Their history prepares them for this. Does Taiwan's political leadership have the same nerve to order the destruction of their own people and nation?


173 posted on 03/07/2005 2:32:05 PM PST by Mac94
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To: houeto
"Now where in the sam hill did you come up with SHELF SPACE???"
_______________

Where in the sam hill did you come up with imports from China comprise more than 70% of the total items in the store???

Do you really think that more than 70% of their total items purchased yields less than 8% of their total revenue? Regardless of how much shelf space more than 70% of their items occupy, my math makes it highly unlikely any retailer would allow more than 70% of their items purchased to generate less than 8% of their total revenue.

Retailers evaluate their operation based on sales and profit per square foot by product, by category, by department etc. Your assumption would necessitate that Wal Mart immediately and significantly reduce the size of their stores.

Or, you could be wrong about what is meant by "commodities".
174 posted on 03/07/2005 2:54:41 PM PST by Mase
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To: Tommyjo
They deploy as part of training exercises. The same way as other US strategic bomber fly out to ranges in the UK and all the way back after dropping bombs as part of global projection missions.

Yes, that's true.

Not every deployment of a strategic bomber is a warning/threat sabre rattling or impending action. To listen to some Freepers on the subject they are convinced that they are off to drop bombs on North Korea within the week!

But not every deployment is a training exercise, either. To ignore the possibility is to stick one's head in the sand. To ask the question is the right thing to do, particularly in the context of this article about the PLAs build up.

Some might call your attitude a bit "Pollyannaish." A little like saying "we can launch the Space Shuttle when it's freezing out there, nothing will go wrong." The other way to express your apparent attitude is as a "glass half full" optimist.

The flip side, of course, would be to characterize me as a "glass half empty" pessimist. Well I'm not.

However, I really would like to know if the glass has poison in it.

Apocryphal quote from Socrates: "I drank what?"

My attitude, of course, makes me a paranoid. A label I'm proud to wear in today's world. If you're not paranoid you're not paying attention.

175 posted on 03/07/2005 3:03:17 PM PST by Phsstpok ("When you don't know where you are, but you don't care, you're not lost, you're exploring.")
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To: GOP_1900AD; Mac94

Personally I think this is the reason for the sudden friendship and military alliance between Russia and China. It reeks of a pragmatic mutual alliance bent on reducing American influence in the world through military, economic, economic, and political alliances.

When you add Russia and China's shipbuilding capacity together against ours, we are in a world of serious hurt. They have not really reduced anything from Cold War levels of production. They simply build more commerical shipping to fill the gaps that they have in warship construction.

You guys are right on target. We are in for rough days ahead, especially if our Senate and House dont get on the same page and start filling the gaps before it becomes too late.


176 posted on 03/07/2005 3:08:08 PM PST by judicial meanz
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To: houeto
And another thing, where a supplier is "based" has nothing to do with where the products are made.
____________________

From walmartfacts.com:

'Wal-Mart estimates that we purchased about $18 billion from China last year -- about $9 billion imported from direct sources and about $9 billion from indirect sources -- compared to $137.5 billion spent last year with all kinds of suppliers in the U.S.'

Seems pretty clear to me. They even break out how much they bought directly from China and through indirect sources which gives even more credibility to the amount they claim to have purchased from American suppliers right here in the USA. That leaves about $42 billion in purchases from other assorted countries.

So, do you still think that $179.5 billion of their total purchases in 2004 account for less than 30% of the total items sold at Wal Mart?
177 posted on 03/07/2005 3:08:44 PM PST by Mase
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To: DeaconBenjamin; Last Dakotan

FYI


178 posted on 03/07/2005 3:12:26 PM PST by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: GOP_Party_Animal
The Iowa's were fairly heavily modernized when they were reactivated back in the 1980's, including the addition of Harpoon and Tomahawk cruise missiles and CIWS defense systems. If they are teamed up with multiple AEGIS cruisers or destroyers for air defense and a frigate or two for anti-submarine protection, they would be a formidable combat platform.
179 posted on 03/07/2005 3:13:07 PM PST by Stonewall Jackson (Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. - John Adams)
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To: Stonewall Jackson

Yep...I would add some Rolling Air Frame missiles (RAMS) for more comprehensive Close in support too.


180 posted on 03/07/2005 3:14:40 PM PST by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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