Al-Qaeda's Completed Warning Cycle - Ready to Attack?

The Jamestown Foundation ^ | March 3, 2005 | by Michael Scheuer

[aculeus]

DCI Porter Goss's testimony before Congress on February 16 that Soviet nuclear material could be in al-Qaeda's hands is a troubling coda to speeches by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in late 2004. Bin Laden's October 30 speech was treated by the media as an attempt to influence the election. Most post-speech commentary also claimed the speech moved bin Laden away from war and toward political discourse. That the speech was directed to the American people is clear. What received little notice, however, is that the speech - and Zawahiri's in November 2004 - completed a cycle of statements warning Americans, and preparing the Muslim world, for an al-Qaeda attack more severe than 9/11.

After 9/11, bin Laden received sharp criticisms from Islamist scholars that dealt with the al-Qaeda chief's failure to satisfy several religious requirements pertinent to waging war. The critique focused on three items: (1) insufficient warning; (2) failure to offer Americans a chance to convert to Islam; and (3) inadequate religious authorization to kill so many people. Bin Laden accepted these criticisms and in mid-2002 began a series of speeches and actions to remedy the shortcomings and satisfy his Islamist critics before again attacking in the United States.

Bin Laden devoted most attention to warning Americans that, to prevent another 9/11-type attack, they had to elect leaders who would change U.S. policies toward the Islamic world. He focused especially on the U.S. presence in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, and Afghanistan, unqualified support for Israel, as well as support for Muslim tyrannies in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. Animosity toward these policies had long been a staple of bin Laden's statements, but since 2002 he has spoken directly to Americans about what they - not their leaders - must do to avoid another attack.

In America's democratic system, bin Laden said, U.S. leaders are elected by the people and stay in office only if the people support their policies. Arguing that the U.S. policies perceived by Muslims as attacks on Islam have been in place for decades, bin Laden said it is clear that the American people as a whole approve of anti-Islamic policies. "The American people have the ability and choice to refuse the policies of their Government and even to change their Government," bin Laden said in October 2002, "yet time and again polls show that the American people support the policies of the elected Government." On this basis, bin Laden warned Americans on four occasions between mid-2002 and October 2004 that they would be responsible for any military disaster that befell them if they did not elect leaders who would change the policy status quo. Indeed, bin Laden's speech of 30 October 2004 appears to be an exceptionally explicit warning. It was largely devoid of the religious and historical allusions usually present in his speeches, as if he wanted to ensure that translators would get his warning to Americans quickly and clearly. (Al-Jazeera, 30 October, 12 Nov 02; Waaqiah.com, 26 Oct 02)

Parallel to the warnings, bin Laden on two occasions since 2002 asked Americans to convert to Islam as the means of terminating the war al-Qaeda is waging against the United States. "We call you to Islam," bin Laden said on both occasions, addressing himself to President Bush - as the leader of the American people - and asking him to lead his countrymen to Islam. He also offered to serve as guide and teacher for the American people, urging them to "follow the right path" to Islam. "I am an honest adviser to you." bin Laden concluded, "I urge you to seek the joy of life and the after life.... I urge you to become Muslims...." (Al-Jazeera 6 Oct 02; Waaqiah.com, 26 Oct 02)

To remedy the criticism of inadequate religious authorization for mass American casualties, bin Laden received the necessary sanction from a young, radical Saudi Shaykh named Hamid bin al-Fahd. In May 2003, al-Fahd published a fatwa on his website entitled "A Treatise on the Legal Status of Using Weapons of Mass Destruction Against Infidels." (FBIS, May 23 2003) In this lengthy work, al-Fahd affirmatively answered the question of whether it was permissible under the four schools of Sunni Islam for the mujahideen to use nuclear weapons against the United States. Bin al-Fahd concluded that each school did permit the use of such weapons and that the mujahideen would be justified in inflicting millions of casualties in the United States. "Anyone who considers America's aggression against Muslims and their lands during the last decade," al-Fahd maintained, "will conclude that striking her is permissible merely on the rule of treating one as one has been treated. Some brothers have totaled the number of Muslims killed directly or indirectly by their [America's] weapons and come up with the figure of nearly ten million."

Thus, when bin Laden spoke to Americans in October 2004, he was tying up loose ends leftover from 9/11 and telling Americans again that changing the "policy of the White House ... [is] the ideal way to prevent another Manhattan...." (Al-Jazeera 30 Oct 04) By then he had repeatedly warned Americans that al-Qaeda would attack unless U.S. policies were changed. Strange and even comic sounding to American and Western ears, bin Laden's warnings and invitation to conversion are meant to satisfy Islamic scholars, and Muslims generally, that al-Qaeda has abided by the Prophet Muhammad's instructions of offering a warning to the enemy before launching an attack. Likewise, Shaykh al-Fahd's treatise attempts to overcome the lack of religious grounding for mass casualties for which Islamic scholars criticized the 9/11 attack, and will be used by bin Laden as such after his next attack against the United States.

In this overall context, the November 28 2004 speech by deputy al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri seems to have brought closure to the warning cycle begun by bin Laden in 2002. In his speech, Zawahiri spoke more in sorrow than anger when he gave Americans "a final piece of advice." He said that Americans had again elected leaders who would keep the status quo in U.S. foreign policy toward the Islamic world. Noting that al-Qaeda had repeatedly warned against this course of action, Zawahiri implied that Americans would get no more warnings and that they would have only themselves to blame for future disasters. "The results of your elections don't concern us," Zawahiri said about the policy status quo, "What matters to us is the way in which the United States behaves toward Muslims." (AFP, 30 November 2004)

Since November 2004, Zawahiri and bin Laden each have made two statements. They focused on Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the continuing threat of "The Crusaders"; none warned Americans or even specifically addressed the United States. These recent statements mirror the non-specific statements that were issued by bin Laden and Zawahiri before earlier attacks -such as 9/11 (2001), The USS Cole (2000), and the East Africa Embassy bombings (1998)- and suggest that bin Laden believes he has satisfied his post-9/11 critics. If Zawahiri's November 28 speech did conclude al-Qaeda's warning cycle, it probably means the group is ready to attack in the United States, a situation that makes DCI Goss's statement that Soviet nuclear materials may be held by al-Qaeda all the more troubling.

Michael Scheuer served in the CIA for 22 years before resigning in 2004. He served as the Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999. He is the once anonymous author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror and Through Our Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America.

[hflynn]

I was pointing out the writer's open sentence misstates what was said by Goss leading me to believe Mr. Scheuer is suffering from the very same Imperial Hubris he places on others by not being factual.

[SheLion]

I, for one, am not blowing this threat off.

I heard earlier on Fox News that this has been in the planning for months now, even though the media just got around to letting us know this past week.  How the heck is anyone to get ready for anything if we have no warning!

[SheLion]

Hey Tex!!! I'm back online dude!!! Thanks for the ping.

Hey! Welcome back!!!!

[TexasCowboy]

Everyone needs to pay close attention to what ExSoldier is saying in #39. He knows what he's talking about.

I wish everyone on this forum had military training, but since everyone doesn't, please listen to those that do.

Have a plan. If you don't need it, you haven't lost anything.

[appalachian_dweller]

Thanks SheLion. Work's been curtaining the use of the internet. At work these days, if it's directly related to my duties (and on a approved list of sites), I cannot access it.

I've got broadband at home now. They can't keep a good FReeper down!!!!

Thanks for the welcome!

[appalachian_dweller]

SheLion,

Check my homepage. There's a list there of things to do and things to have on hand before the next event. This is just a general list. Alter it to suite you individual needs.

The key to to be ready before the next hit. You don't need to spend a huge amount of money to get ready.

[SheLion]

I've got broadband at home now. They can't keep a good FReeper down!!!!

That's great! I'm sorry you lost FR at work, but good that you have it at home now. You can catch up in the evenings. :)

[SheLion]

Everyone needs to pay close attention to what ExSoldier is saying in #39. He knows what he's talking about.

Now! That REALLY makes me sick!

[killjoy]

He's exactly the type that needed to be cleaned out of the CIA. Everything is the fault of the Jooz. U.S. Policy bad. Osama good.

Obviously you never read the book. Ignorance is bliss.

[SheLion]

The key to to be ready before the next hit. You don't need to spend a huge amount of money to get ready.

I don't think I could ever be ready for something like in post #39. That's downright horrifying.

[Bennett46]

"Michael Scheuer served in the CIA for 22 years before resigning in 2004. He served as the Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999."



This author and Clinton really did a bang-up job in the nab laden department. Then when he's working for an Administration actually doing the heavy lifting....he quits!

I do not discount the quoted statements in the article, but I discount the author completely. He has an ax to grind with President Bush and his Administration

This guy knows he dropped the ball; and is trying to deflect the blame he and Clinton so richly deserve.

I am not blowing this threat off either; but this author is coming straight out of the Blame Bush Crowd.

Ignoring the message from bin laden is a perilous thing for us to do; but this messenger is a traitor and is also our enemy.

[appalachian_dweller]

Don't sell yourself short SheLion. You never know what you can do until you have to do it.

Also know that the Lord will take care of you and will not test you beyond your ability to deal with it.

I Corinthians 10:13
There hath no temptation taken you but such as is common to man: but God is faithful, who will not suffer you to be tempted above that ye are able; but will with the temptation also make a way to escape, that ye may be able to bear it.

[SheLion]

Don't sell yourself short SheLion. You never know what you can do until you have to do it.

Also know that the Lord will take care of you and will not test you beyond your ability to deal with it.

I Corinthians 10:13
There hath no temptation taken you but such as is common to man: but God is faithful, who will not suffer you to be tempted above that ye are able; but will with the temptation also make a way to escape, that ye may be able to bear it.

I think I can handle that with His help. :)

[Cindy]

Thanks for the ping Calpernia.

===
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ON THE NET...

http://www.truthusa.com/911news.html
http://www.truthusa.com/911.html

[Bennett46]

"Our enemies are patient. I'm convinced that they are just biding their time before the next hit. Our southern border has been wide open for a long time leading me to believe that the cells are in place; however, it could be years before another major hit. They are just waiting for us to go back to sleep."


You are right on the mark a_d!

I have seen a very big change in my sleepy little citrus growing area of Central Florida.

Not 8 miles from where I am typing a church was bought by muzzies...voila...now a mosque.

SheLion posted an article about mohammed atta living in an apartment with another muzzie before 9-11 about 6 miles from here. One of bin laden's brothers lived on a remote estate about 15 miles from here. I guess the draw of Disneyworld brought them here to check out the possibilities.

There are lots of them here, doing recon.

The sleepers are here and breeding like vermin.

BTW, I'm glad you're back.

[appalachian_dweller]

It's good to be back B. Thanks.

A while ago some folks on the Threat Matrix threads were kicking around some ideas. This is a good place to rehash them.

Al Qaeda’s Goals:

1) The removal of United States influence in the Middle East
2) The eventual conquest and occupation of the United States and submission of the US to Islam
3) The financial collapse of the United States
4) The defeat of US Forces overseas and decapitation of US Command and Control capabilities
6) Conquest of Israel and splitting the historical US-Israel alliance, de-legitimization of Israel as a state through propaganda and destabilization.


3 Types of strikes:

Psychological (mass casualty)
Methods of attack: bio, chem., nuclear detonation; shopping mall bombings; snipers; home invasions; shopping mall bombings

Strategic (economic / military disruption)
Methods of attack: conventional explosives to take out petroleum refineries and pipelines, rail & highway bridges; supply disruptions

Symbolic (destroying Nat’l monuments, high level assassinations)
Methods of possible attack: conventional explosives carried by truck; pre-placed IEDs


Some things to be on the lookout for:
(1) PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION & PRIVATE TOURS: Individuals using public transportation such as subways, trains and buses should exercise additional diligence and be alert to their surroundings. Caution should be exercised when gathered in confined areas associated with public transportation hubs such as train and bus stations. Individuals on tour buses are also urged to remain vigilant as these conveyances have been specifically named as potential targets of kidnapping in recent issues of the terrorist training manual Camp al Battar.

(2) BRIDGES, TUNNELS, LANDMARKS: When traveling by car, individuals are urged to be aware on approach to bridges and tunnels throughout the US, looking for any stopped trucks, including but not limited to tankers and closed cargo trucks at the base of bridges or tunnels. People are urged to identify, in advance if possible, outlets or alternate routes to escape from or avoid a potentially dangerous event. Landmarks have been included in this advisory as they have been peripherally referenced in recent forum postings and communications.

(3) MALLS, SHOPPING CENTERS: People are urged to be aware of any unattended bags, backpacks, briefcases or other unattended objects in all populated and congested areas. Consistent with the official US government warning recently issued, everyone should be on the lookout for anyone who appears out of place within the surroundings, especially those wearing bulky clothing that could potentially conceal explosive devices and/or chemical containers.

[TexasCowboy]

Thanks, Bennett.

I admit I don't know very little about his background.
The article sounded plausible.

[SheLion]

Ok here it is. :)

"This is an amazing book. Brilliantly argued and meticulously documented, this book contains a devastating expose of the murderous deceit behind contemporary apologists for militant Islam--in the media, political arena, academia and "mainstream" radical Islamic groups. Read this book to learn why Islamic extremism is dangerously entrenched within the institutional Islamic leadership in Saudi Arabia and the United States."

-- Steven Emerson, author of American Jihad: The Terrorists Living Among Us and Director of the Investigative Project

The new and updated map has arrived!!!!

[Bennett46]

"The article sounded plausible."

Many of us on this forum make it our business to keep ourselves informed, TC. Yes, the article has salient features, it is the spin the author puts forth that I object to.

There might be a plus though.

Hopefully many on the left will read it because it is from one of their own and awaken to the dangers we all face.

a_d is right when he says that the enemy is patient; and waiting for America to fall asleep again.

These creeps are doing recon all over our country.

I see them here driving their family friendly vans, their wives all covered up in the passenger seat, looking oh so bland and curious. The guys with their snappy caps with no visors.

Our little town's commisioners trying to look less conservative than this town has ALWAYS been. Trying to blend into the more liberal town next door.

Do I sound harsh? I don't care, I am fed up with these muzzies looking at us as if we are tator tots...waiting to jump into the microwave at their bidding.

I looked at the islamfinder site yesterday.

I asked for a 20 mile radius...unbelievable results.

I then looked in the Central Florida phonebook.

Guess what? Two (2) listings for all of Central FL!

They are gathering strength and waiting, and breeding, breeding, breeding.

[SheLion]

They are gathering strength and waiting, and breeding, breeding, breeding.

The FREEPERS Guide To Islamic Terror Websites - CYBERTERRORISM (And It's Sponsors)

Mosque's and Centers Guide/USA