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Big Jump In Gas Prices Predicted [24 cents!]
CBS News ^ | 3/3/2005 | CBS/AP

Posted on 03/04/2005 7:45:04 AM PST by Quick1

Gasoline prices are about to go through the moon roof. One analyst predicts a 24-cent-a-gallon increase in the next few days and other experts say average prices could go as high as $2.50 a gallon this summer, the peak driving season.

"$2 a gallon we think is easily within reach and probably in the next couple of months," the American Automobile Association's Robert Sinclair told CBS Radio News.

Tom Kloza, senior analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, expects the jump much sooner: The end of this month. "Petronoia is in full flower," he told USA Today, but added he's not sure if prices will stay over $2 a gallon, or retreat as they did last fall.

Fuel-watchers say the main culprit is global demand, which briefly pushed the price of a gallon of crude oil as high as $55 a barrel Thursday. That's the highest level since last October.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; energyprices; gasprices; oil
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To: thackney

Well your quoted statement is basically accurate but in needs to be put into perspective.

16 billion barrels of oil (at the 5% confidence interval but certainly possible). Taking the figure for US imports from Saudi Arabia- 1.5 million bbl/day multiplied by days in a year times 30 years gets us to 16.425 billion barrels of oil. So the figures basically work out.

On the other hand US consumption in 2004 was 20.4 million bbl/day, and world consumption was about four times that- 83 million bbl/day with supply at about 84-85 million bbl/day. With those numbers the expected daily output of ANWR at peak (1-1.5 million bbl/day) seems less dramatic.

Not an argument against drilling for I think we should and will drill there but one should be realistic about expected impact.


141 posted on 03/04/2005 12:11:48 PM PST by NYorkerInHouston
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To: NEBUCHADNEZZAR1961

They always have it both ways - no one* holds them accountable.

*media, republican politicians


142 posted on 03/04/2005 12:14:29 PM PST by Let's Roll ("Congressmen who ... undermine the military ... should be arrested, exiled or hanged" - A. Lincoln)
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To: NYorkerInHouston

Working in the Oil & Gas Industry, I am just amazed at the opinion that "only" a million and a half barrels per day isn't worth producing. Just how many places in the world can produce that? If this was the criteria, we would need to have cars that run on coal or natural gas because we would never have the gasoline.


143 posted on 03/04/2005 12:15:49 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Doogle

It's not just on CBS, do a Google news search.


144 posted on 03/04/2005 12:16:22 PM PST by Quick1
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To: Cobra64

---"Pontiac Aztec? That car is a stylish as a 1961 Plymouth Valiant. A few months ago, someone here posted a vanity about the world's ugliest cars. The Aztec was in the top 10%."---

I actually like the look. Plus the price was okay. Then again, I actually like the old orange-and-white Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniforms.

;-)


145 posted on 03/04/2005 12:17:14 PM PST by TitansAFC (When will Kristen Breitweiser just declare her candidacy already?!?!?)
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To: TitansAFC
An Aztek????

They'd have to pay me to take one of those mutts off their hands. Was the entire decision-chain at Pontiac high that year?

146 posted on 03/04/2005 12:20:48 PM PST by Hank Rearden (Never allow anyone who could only get a government job attempt to tell you how to run your life.)
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To: thackney
The tricky part that I can't figure out yet is this:

What would the impact in prices be of placing 1.5 million bbl/day on the market, not today but say 10 years from now after the field is developed and production ramped up?

Where will daily production be at both domestically and abroad? And what of demand? If demand exceeds supply in the interim that could trigger a recession leading to decreased demand and sharply reduced oil prices. Or perhaps demand will be constantly bumping into supply.

And then there is the issue of other sites of domestic drilling. What are the estimates for the eastern gulf of Mexico? Off shore California? The east coast? I've seen no hard figures (though that's just with Internet searching- I not in the business). Are there any?

What about the capped marginal wells? How many are there? What could they be expected to produce? 2000 each producing 20 bbl a day is a drop in the bucket. 10000 each producing 100 bbl a day is a significant impact.

I'm learning more about this subject but for every answer I find, I seem to come up with two more questions.
147 posted on 03/04/2005 1:18:51 PM PST by NYorkerInHouston
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To: NYorkerInHouston

If you find the answer to all those questions, you will be wealthy enough not to care how much it cost to fill up your 747.


148 posted on 03/04/2005 1:25:15 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Cobra64

I was interested in the Toyota Prius. The dealer didn't even have one on the show floor. The salesperson had to take me back to the garage to show me one that was being prep'ed for a customer.

None available for test drive. I'd like to at least test drive one before I buy it.

Lead time was eight weeks. I bought a regular car.

Read somewhere that the issue was the battery. The manufacturer couldn't keep up with demand.

The hybrid is not the end all. How and where you drive greatly affects mileage. Gains are nil for highway driving. Gains are great for city driving where there is a lot of stopping. I drive the highway a lot.



149 posted on 03/04/2005 4:28:44 PM PST by dhs12345
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To: JTHomes
When I pull up next to one of those SUV pretenders in my Expedition, I think of that line from Crocodile Dundee when he says "That's not a knife, THIS is a knife."

Now THIS is my "SUV" (Mercedes Benz Unimog)... being put to proper use!


150 posted on 03/04/2005 4:56:44 PM PST by Mogger (Independence, better fuel eonomy and performance with American made synthetic oil.)
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To: dhs12345
And or SUV ob the way back from Jacksom Maine in a blizzard on an unplowed logging road...


151 posted on 03/04/2005 5:01:14 PM PST by Mogger (Independence, better fuel eonomy and performance with American made synthetic oil.)
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To: Mogger
(That would be "on" the way back from "Jackman"

I'm kinda pooped, spent all day with our booth at the Snodeo in Diamond Pond NH promoting American made synthetic oil that help you get around 10% better fuel economy.

Funny thing is that at the Snodeo nobody seems concerned with fuel economy. Most drove large V-8 trucks and SUVS over 200 miles, dragging trailers with 2 to 10 snowmobiles on them.

All folks seemed interested in was performance.

152 posted on 03/04/2005 5:07:23 PM PST by Mogger (Independence, better fuel eonomy and performance with American made synthetic oil.)
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To: Mogger
George Bull tanking up his SUV... in Africa, while on overland safari.

The Mog and George are both back in New Hampshire now.

Gas was hard to come by at any price at times in the remote areas he traversed.

BTW... That's a Mercedes U-1300L Unimog. Diesel engine, 16 speeds forward and 8 speeds reverse.

153 posted on 03/04/2005 5:19:29 PM PST by Mogger (Independence, better fuel eonomy and performance with American made synthetic oil.)
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To: Obadiah
Agree with you in part. A small part of the problem is demand. But also, the problem has a lot to do with people speculating in oil futures right now who are buying oil futures on the speculation that is $55 today but could go to $80 next week. There's a LOT of money to be made if they make this bet. So, it's a lot of irrational exuberence in the market that is adding to this.

You are right in this, not only that but the oft-mentioned $5-8/barrel "fear factor" pricing, which considering all this time the "fear" has not been borne out, is ridiculous. At some point, the market has to realize the sky isn't going to fall tomorrow, next week, or next month. In any case, others are right, the market will solve this problem, "fear factor" or not.

154 posted on 03/04/2005 5:26:43 PM PST by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: Cobra64

Alright, at 131 posts and counting, and no explanations, I'll bite...what's a SMART car? Just another name for hybrid?


155 posted on 03/04/2005 5:40:24 PM PST by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: Quick1
$2 a gallon we think is easily within reach

I don't believe that. The price of gasoline would have to drop 20 cents to get to $2.

156 posted on 03/04/2005 5:42:23 PM PST by RightWhale (Please correct if cosmic balance requires.)
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To: Mogger

Yeah man!!!! A man's "car."

Speaking of gas mileage, how many gallons to the mile does it get? :)


157 posted on 03/04/2005 7:23:17 PM PST by dhs12345
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To: dhs12345

In Columbia, SC, our gas prices went from (reg. unleaded) $1.68 to $1.81 pg. I don't know how you guys in CA can tolerate those $2.20 + pg.


158 posted on 03/06/2005 11:53:57 AM PST by conservativeinferno (My SUV is the urban squirrel's worst predator.)
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To: Citizen of the Savage Nation

A Smart car is NOT a hybrid. It is a small car, about the size of BMW's MiniCooper. It is made by Mercedes Benz in conjunction with the Swatch Company. There is zero trunk space. But the car works and runs on gasoline. I drive Beemers, and I have a 1964 Shelby Cobra. In my estimation, I will never drive a hybrid. The reasons are obvious if one understands the basic laws of physics.


159 posted on 03/07/2005 7:55:08 PM PST by Cobra64 (Babes should wear Bullet Bras - www.BulletBras.net)
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To: Prince Charles
You need rest.

You are absolutely correct.

The last time I looked, "I paid $64,000 a year in Federal Income Taxes. Then there are the State Taxes. Then ther are the anscillary hidden taxes and "fees" on gasoline, liquor, cigarettes, telephone, hotels, meals, ...

Yup, I do need a rest. Cheers sucker; keep riding your bike in supporting your friendly government.

BTW, keep a case of KY handy.

160 posted on 03/07/2005 8:08:17 PM PST by Cobra64 (Babes should wear Bullet Bras - www.BulletBras.net)
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