N. Korean leader Kim Jong-il surrounded by soldiers(top);S. Korean President Roh Moo-hyun(bottom)
Posted on 03/04/2005 7:27:44 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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| three pillars, personality cult, military, and food distribution, collapsed N. Korean leader Kim Jong-il surrounded by soldiers(top);S. Korean President Roh Moo-hyun(bottom) |
Japanese "Diamond Weekly" (01/29/05): N. Korea sliding into a collapse - by Sakurai Yoshiko
I am presenting the result of my investigation, done this month(January) in S. Korea, into how Roh Moo-hyun government would deal with N. Korea to solve problems of kidnapping, nukes, and missiles.
What impressed me after a series of investigations is the contrast between N. Korea, which is on the brink of collapse, and S. Korea, which tries to do anything to shore up the North. More importantly, I became convinced that, considering the N. Korean situation, even the economic sanction(to N. Korea) by Japan alone could make great impact.
A researcher at a think-tank in S. Korea, who wanted to remain anonymous, told me as follows:
"In my opinion, the economic sanction, which is being debated in Japan to resolve the issue of kidnapping(of Japanese), could make big impact, if implemented. In the past, we would have thought that such an action would have little effect (on N. Korea.) However, after the economic reform by Kim Jong-il on July 1, 2002, the situation had changed."
Izvestiya, a major Russian daily, even commented that N. Korea's economic reform is 'the event comparable to The Fall of Berlin Wall' and went on to say, 'N. Korea signed the death warrant of its system.' About its real impact on N. Korean system, Tamagi Modoi of Modern Korea Institute see it this way:
"What this means is that they gave up centrally planned economy, thus officially dumping their avowed socialism. In short, the basis of reform is to procure things on their own. Organizations(business) as well as individuals have to earn money, become self-sufficient, and pay the state its surplus."
According to this measure, the central economy is separated from the provincial economy. The provincial economy of provinces, cities, and counties should pay their surplus to the state. On the other hand, business can make new investment drawn from its withholding, a portion of surplus. Independent management was allowed, and surplus profit would be taken by the state.
The end of the controlled economy led to steep rise of prices. Kim Jong-il regime, trumpeting its 'radical reform,' raised the price of goods to the level of black market. Underground economy drove out the surface(official) economy. Let us guess how much burden this forced on people by looking at the price of rice.
Before the reform, a kilo of rice cost 8 chon( 100 chon = 1 won.) After the reform, its price was raised to 44 won, 550-fold increase. However, a (typical) salary of an ordinary citizen was raised from 100-200 won to 2,000-5,000 won, only 10-50 -fold increase. That would fall far short of price increase.
Director Tamagi said, "Kim Jong-il regime attempted to fit controlled economy to underground economy, with the intention of absorbing underground economy into controlled economy. It appeared to be going their way at first. However, the underground economy emerged again, which is against what they intended."
Currently, both general economy(controlled economy) and underground economy are worse than in the past. Such an economic decline is creating problems. In the past, the share of civilians, military, and the party among N. Korean economy was the ratio of 6:3:1.
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Here, the party refers to a small number of elites supporting Kim's dynasty. However, the (resource) distribution according to the ratio above is no longer possible, which decisively led to the plummeting moral of military. N. Korean state system is supported by three pillars, personality cult, military power, and the food distribution system. The last one holds the source of biological survival. This is the most important one. They cannot guarantee food supply to military now. If the two pillars(military, food distribution) begin to waver, it is a matter of time before personality cult of Kim would be blown away.
Therefore, it is my analysis that Japan's economic sanction would have big impact(on N. Korea.) It would have the effect of severing a lifeline which is keeping barely alive Kim Jong-il' regime, and could lead to 'extreme hardship.' It would generate large number of N. Korean refugees, including soldiers. Actually, desertion in military is on the rise. Once desertion carried a death penalty, now they look the other way. Military without discipline is no longer military, and it cannot serve as the defender of Kim Jong-il regime. Even so, President Roh Moo-hyun(of S. Korea) claims, "The collapse of N. Korean regime is not desirable."
"There is a prevailing mood in S. Korea which makes it tough to tell the truth on N. Korean situations. When I report on N. Korea, I also have to soften my language," deplores Kang Chol-hwan, who was imprisoned at Yodok(prison camp.) He was imprisoned there for 10 years starting '77. He escaped N. Korea in spring '92. Mr. Kang is currently a reporter for Chosun Ilbo, a major S. Korean daily. "Much information flows in from N. Korea. Big changes are happening in N. Korea on the ground level. S. Koreans do not bother to pay attention to it. In particular, Roh Moo-hyun government is intentionally turning blind eyes to the changes in N. Korea," he continued.
Mr. Kang said that it is a common knowledge among N. Korean elites that Kim Jong-il regime is already over. "It was former president Kim Dae-jung(S. Korean President:1997-2002) who extended its life. N. Koreans hate Kim Dae-jung. They know full well who are the enemy of N. Korean people or who are on their side, in S. Korea. Furthermore, N. Koreans are not pro-China but pro-America. President Roh Moo-hyun does not understand this He surrounds himself with those who do not knows the real situation of the country, but have misguided affection for N. Korea."
It is obvious that N. Koreans hate China and have fondness toward America, because it is Chinese government which rounds up N. Korean refugees and turns them over to N. Korean authorities, knowing full well that they will be sent to prison camps. "When N. Korean people would be freed from Kim Jong-il regime, it would be not China but America, Japan, and S. Korea where N. Koreans would want helps," he says.
S. Korean medias would not say these things. S. Korean government is afraid of the confrontation with N. Korea, and (influx of N. Korean) refugees. S. Koreans are also strongly anti-Japanese. Most importantly, President Roh Moo-hyun, who is ignorant of international politics, does not realize that America and China virtually gave up Kim Jong-il regime and are working out arrangements aimed at post-Kim Jong-il era.
The same can apply to Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro. Dreaming of normal diplomatic relation with Kim Jong-il regime must be an indication that he does not have eyes to tell the tide of history. Japan should not make the same mistake of raising hope for Kim Jong-il regime , which Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, two (S. Korean) presidents, did in succession. On the contrary, now is the time that we should take more concrete steps to implement economic sanction, which we expect to bring impact on resolving (Japanese) kidnapping issue.
Ping!
Very insightful. Thanks for the hard work in translating this from Korean to English.
It reads to me like the Russian is describing "the Fall of the Berlin Wall" as a bad thing!
Thanks for the translation. This is most interesting.
Interesting take from Japan.
Yeah, Russian could have mixed feeling about it.:)
Good post, thank you.
Appears that Roh Moo-hyun is but the visible symptom of all of South Korea's home-made ills -- rather than its leader.
And that he is to South Korea what that other execrable appeaser of tyrants and terrorists, José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is to Spain.
Kamsa ham naeda for the translation!
Let us hope the fall is swift, and bloodless.. for the people that is..
This is the first article I have ever read that claims the N. Korean people are Pro-American..
I am amazed..
I was burdened with the impression that Kim's stalinist state had indoctrinated the people to hate America to the point of blind fanaticism...
Please put me on your "PING" list..
Thank you.
Thanks for a great post.
Presumably this article began life in Japanese in the Japanese business magazine "The Diamond Weekly" This picture fits what I hear when I visit Japan and South Korea. The South Koreans I talk to often have romanticized views of the North, and a fear of shouldering the economic costs associated with a North Korean collapse. It is easy to get the feeling that South Koreans believe that somehow Americans are to blame.
In Japan, on the other hand, it is much more common to hear opinions that are very close to what President Bush an Secretary of State Rice are saying. The Japanese have been deeply affected by the North Korean kidnappings of their citizens.
Also more on the reporter Yoshihiko Sakuai:
Born in Vietnam, Sakurai graduated from the University of Hawaii in 1969 and started her career as a journalist with the Tokyo branch of the Christian Science Monitor 1971.
From 1980 through 1996 she was a very popular and well-respected newscaster and commentator on Nippon Television Network (NTV), one of Japan's highest-rated national commercial networks. Once called "the best woman in Japanese public life" by a member of the Japanese Diet, Sakurai is active in the Foreign Correspondence Club and Japan National Press Club and was honored by the Society of Japanese Women in Radio and Television and the International Society for Promoting International Understanding.
Her book AIDS Hanzai: Ketsubyo Kanja no Higeki (AIDS Crimes: The Tragedy of Hemophiliacs) and her probing tv-interviews exposed Japan's tainted blood scandal. Sakurai revealed the poor response of health officials and drug firms to the dangers of HIV infection from contaminated blood. The fight to help hemophiliacs who contracted AIDS through blood donations received much energy and attention through her efforts. This was a major accomplishment as the stigma associated with AIDS is still great in Japan.
The book was awarded with Japan's most prestigious prize for nonfiction. Nearly two years after its publication the Ministry of Health and Welfare and five drug companies finally publicly disclosed their roles in the distribution of risky blood products.
Sakurai has also been active to assist the parents of Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korean agents and often speaks publicly on this issue.
"Japan is a country where the government does not respect life," she once confided to me, referring to the AIDS problem and the non-committed response of the Japanese government to the fate of the citizens kidnapped by North Korea.
http://ikjeld.com/files/biographies/sakurai_yoshiko.html
Your perception on S. Korea is on target, unfortunately.:(
When a flood of North Korean refugees tells the truth to their Southern kindred, in support of a pro-American opposition, it will be over for the likes of Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.
President Roh Moo-hyun does not understand this He surrounds himself with those who do not knows the real situation of the country, but have misguided affection for N. Korea."
I think this unduely charitable. It seems to me that it is the fear of losing power that motivates these South Korean enablers. A socialist merger would provide the chaebol a flood of cheap labor. Keeping the North under the heel of "the bad guys" while exploiting that labor pool might provide a fat profit while keeping the proles from getting out of control.
Am I wrong here?
Only a small number of them do, with little success. In China, they could blend into ethnic Korean neighborhood.
Fascinating. Thanks for your continued work in translating these reports.
As it stands now, business cannot count on such exploitation. N. Korea wants to open only a small area surgically and insists on guaranteed stream of income, no matter what happens to business performance. They are basically after an extortion racket disguised as business venture. Any business loss is supposed to be compensated by guarantee of S. Korean governments to individual S. Korean business operating in N. Korea. That is the plan. That is, S. Korean taxpayers is paying indirectly to N. Korean regime.
The situation is way below that of China in that sense.
I really appreciate your posts and translations even though I usually don't post.
Thanks for the pings!
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