Posted on 03/01/2005 11:58:13 AM PST by white trash redneck
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) has cropped the number of “Frontline” Democrats from last year’s 19 to nine, implementing revised criteria to determine which incumbents are truly vulnerable and deserving of member-to-member donations.
The revised criteria have nearly halved last cycle’s number of at-risk lawmakers, allowing House Democrats to designate more of their incumbents’ excess money to knocking off Republicans and contesting open seats.
Emanuel’s higher vulnerability standards also indicate that the DCCC, under his direction, will implement a more calibrated strategy toward channeling member-to-member donations and will not ask lawmakers to part with campaign cash simply to pad skittish incumbents’ margins of victory.
The DCCC declined to confirm the names on the list, but numerous sources throughout the caucus, including aides for lawmakers who have been told of their Frontline status, said that Reps. Melissa Bean (Ill.), Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Chet Edwards (Texas), Stephanie Herseth (S.D.), Brian Higgins (N.Y.), Jim Matheson (Utah), Charlie Melancon (La.), Dennis Moore (Kan.), and John Salazar (Colo.) were informed last week that they will receive direct donations from their fellow incumbents, in addition to other campaign assistance.
“The list is not final,” said Greg Speed, spokesman for the DCCC.
This year’s shortened list could still grow by two or three lawmakers, several caucus sources said, pending redistricting in Georgia, where two marginal Democrats — freshman Rep. John Barrow and second-term Rep. Jim Marshall — will likely see their districts become more Republican.
Reps. Marshall, Tim Bishop (N.Y.), Lincoln Davis (Tenn.), Tim Holden (Pa.), Darleen Hooley (Ore.), Paul Kanjorksi (Pa.), Rick Larsen (Wash.), Mike Michaud (Maine) and Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) received the Frontline designation last cycle but were not included on Emanuel’s initial list. It was unclear if last cycle’s beneficiaries had been formally notified that they would not be included in this year’s program.
The pared-down list also reflects the Democrats’ confidence that several of their members who had been considered vulnerable are in fact safely ensconced in their districts, even if some of them have failed to throttle past the 55 percent ceiling. In previous cycles, the 55 percent high-water mark almost always guaranteed that an incumbent House Democrat would receive a crush of contributions from the chamber’s safer members.
A senior Democratic aide said, “There’s a recognition that sometimes 55 percent is safe. That’s all they’re ever going to get, but they’re not going to drop below.”
“Essentially, he’s creating a higher bar so that it will be a more credible list,” a Democratic leadership aide said.
Emanuel’s new formula places a greater emphasis on the generic Democratic percentage, instead of the incumbent’s numbers, and therefore punishes lawmakers who underperform in their districts.
“The idea is you don’t reward members for running bad campaigns. You look at how members are doing compared to other Democrats,” said another senior Democratic aide with direct knowledge of Emanuel’s thinking.
Roughly a week before the Democrats informed their vulnerable incumbents of their Frontline designations, House Republican leaders settled on a list of 10 vulnerable lawmakers, with the explicit goal of helping their incumbents post strong numbers before the first quarter’s filing deadline, March 31.
It appears that the Frontline program, run by Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), has not placed the same emphasis on that March 31 deadline.
The GOP’s ROMP (Retain our Majority Program) model was, in part, the model for the Democrats’ Frontline program. Ten Republicans were chosen for the first ROMP fundraiser, March 17, and they can expect their campaign chest to be bolstered by more than $100,000. Republican leaders will likely hold two or three more ROMP events for their less vulnerable incumbents and promising challengers.
A spokesman for Marshall said that the lawmaker, who received 63 percent in November, could be added if his seat becomes more Republican as a result of a redistricting bill that is likely to clear the state Legislature and satisfy Department of Justice guidelines.
“As of now, we’re not on the list,” spokesman Doug Moore said. “That might qualify for a second look.”
Harper Lawson, a spokesman for Barrow, said that his office and the DCCC had had conversations about making Barrow, who won with 52 percent, a Frontline beneficiary but that the designation did not happen in the first round.
“They may be taking a wait-and-see approach,” Lawson said, in reference to redistricting.
Republicans expressed shock that Democrats had trimmed their list of vulnerable members.
“Based on the fact that they’ve lost seats in the last two cycles, I would think that Democrats would try and protect as many incumbents as possible,” said Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
"The revised criteria have nearly halved last cycle’s number of at-risk lawmakers, allowing House Democrats to designate more of their incumbents’ excess money to knocking off Republicans and contesting open seats."
Boswell (Iowa) is vulnerable? I guess that means either Boswell messed up somehow (how?) or someone other than two-time loser Stan Thompson is going to run against him (who?).
Dennis Moore in Kansas--Lupin alert!
We need to tap the oil reserves in Rahm's forehead...
Yeah--they are not vulnearable because they lost and are not their. Also the fewer designees may reflect the fact that the RATs have less money to spare as well.
Interesting how the first term Cintonoid is in charge of money all of a sudden.
He should have or could have been beaten in 04 as he broke his term limit pledge. Perhaps Stan was not the man to do it -- perhaps those last few % are too elusive to take him out.
"[Boswell] should have or could have been beaten in 04 as he broke his term limit pledge."
He's apparently trying to grow his plastic surgery practice. I heard his ad on WHO radio just a few weeks ago.
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