Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[nwctwx]

I still can't help but wonder about the low snow amounts, though it is more understandable from a Boston met in a situation like this. Yes, the models are not super juicy, but I cannot recall seeing a 970-975mb low sitting off the Cape with max snowfall around 12-15". It's a fast mover, but once it gets to a certain latitude it will tilt a bit, and during that tilt it should basically stall for a few hours. Someone is going to get a lot more snow than currently forecast in my opinions.

[Axenolith]

That big purple splotch in VA\W. VA is where the Mom's side grandparents live in Rockingham Co, VA (and in the stoney lonesome part too).

Grandpap will probably like it because he can get out in the Ridge Runner^TM and push it around :-)

[april15Bendovr]

[nwctwx]

Our local weatherman (Philly)went from 10-15" at 6pm to 8-12" at 11pm. Also said blizzard like conditons. But there is a forecaster at Accu-Weather saying the Philly forecasts are all hype.

Probably because the models seemed to tone things down a good bit with their last runs. That said, we are in storm mode now... there is no real reason to focus so much on numerical guidance that is almost never correct with final feature placement anyway. BUT, there is a major problem with most of the runs tonight... they initialized the low way too weak at hour 0. Obviously, if they are way off at hour 0, they will be terrible at hour 24... in fact, the American models show the low stronger in 24 hours than it is now--and that's after deepening it all day tomorrow.

I don't know Philly all that well, and I hear that Rob G. is a good meteorologist. I would certainly hesitate to disagree with him. Based on the local forecasts here in CT, I can see that they don't really know what to do... the models tonight say varying things, all the other data says otherwise.

If the low continues doing what it has for the past 6 hours another 6 hours, I think there will be a lot of places raising their amounts.

Despite what the usual naysayers have said in this thread and elsewhere, this is not a run of the mill storm. The strength alone almost assures that places on the East Coast (i95 included) will see conditions very near blizzard -- if not true blizzard -- criteria for a time Mon or Tue.

[nwctwx]

the American models show the low stronger in 24 hours than it is now

should read: the American models show the low weaker in 24 hours than it is now.

[hipaatwo]

Rob G is a great weatherman. Have you checked out his site? If not here's the link.

http://www.fox29.com/_ezpost/data/9715.shtml

[nwctwx]

Rob G is a great weatherman. Have you checked out his site? If not here's the link.

I have checked his site out, and hear a lot about him on the boards. I am one of the people who run the Weather Board linked as the origin of this thread. He has a lot of followers from the area it seems. :)

BTW, was the AccuWeather meteorologist Henry M. by any chance?

[hipaatwo]

BTW, was the AccuWeather meteorologist Henry M. by any chance?


Yes. But our local forecasters never said blizzard. Just blizzard like conditions.

[StarFan]

83 years old....how shaky is his hands?

LOL. Who cares about his hands. Just as long as his eyesight keeps failing and he continues to gives me more nitrous oxide than I ever hoped for, I don't feel a thing.

[BurbankKarl]

THIS IS THE NYC.gov NEWS YOU REQUESTED FOR: Emergency Preparedness, Notifications and Alerts


MAJOR NOR'EASTER FORECAST FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 28



The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the New York City area for Monday, February 28. Snow will begin in the morning, becoming heavy at times Monday evening, possibly changing to rain or sleet. Accumulations of 8 to 13 inches of snow are possible, which combined with strong winds, may cause near blizzard conditions Monday afternoon and evening.

A Coastal Flood Watch has also been issued for coastal areas of Queens and the Bronx on the Long Island Sound as high winds combine with astronomical high tides. Tides may be 3 to 4 feet higher than normal, and strong winds may produce waves of 4 to 7 feet along north-facing shores.


OEM offers the following tips and urges New Yorkers to take steps to ensure their safety.

Winter Storm Driving

With heavy, wet snow and low visibility expected during the Monday evening commute, avoid driving if possible; use public transportation instead.

If you must drive, observe the following tips:

If you travel alone, let someone know your destination, route and when you expect to arrive.
Listen to the radio for the latest information on road conditions.
Use major streets or highways for travel whenever possible; these roadways will be cleared first.
Avoid parking on streets designated as snow emergency routes. When the Department of Transportation declares a snow emergency, cars on these roadways are subject to towing.
Drive slowly. Vehicles take longer to stop on snow and ice than on dry pavement. Four-wheel drive vehicles do not stop quicker than other vehicles.
If you skid, steer in the direction you want the car to go and straighten the wheel when the car moves in the desired direction.
Know your vehicle's braking system. Vehicles with antilock brakes require a different braking technique than vehicles without antilock brakes in icy or snowy conditions.
If you become stuck on the road:

Stay with your car. Do not try to walk to safety unless help is visible within 100 yards. You could become disoriented quickly in blowing snow.
Display a trouble sign if you need help; tie a brightly colored cloth to the antenna and raise the hood to alert rescuers.
Start the car and use the heater for about 10 minutes every hour. Keep the exhaust pipe clear of snow to avoid the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
Leave the overhead light on when the car is running so you can be seen.
Move your arms and legs to keep blood circulating and to stay warm.
Keep one window slightly open to let in fresh air. Use a window that is opposite the direction the wind is blowing.

Snow Removal Safety Tips
Stretch before you go out. If you go out to shovel snow, do a few stretching exercises to warm up your body. This may prevent injury.
Cover your mouth. Protect your lungs from extremely cold air by covering your mouth when outdoors. Try not to speak unless absolutely necessary.
Avoid overexertion. Cold weather puts an added strain on the heart. Unfamiliar exercise, such as shoveling snow or pushing a car can bring on a heart attack or make other medical conditions worse. Take frequent rest breaks, and drink plenty of fluids to avoid dehydration.
Keep dry. Change wet clothes frequently to prevent a loss of body heat. Wet clothing loses all of its insulating value and transmits heat rapidly.
Stay safe. Walk carefully on snowy or icy sidewalks. If using a snow blower, NEVER use your hands to unclog the machine.
Maintain an awareness of utilities when shoveling snow. Do not cover fire hydrants with snow when clearing sidewalks and driveways. Do not shovel snow into manholes and catch basins.
Help those who may require special assistance, including infants, the elderly and infirm, and people with disabilities.

What to Do In the Event of Flooding

Keep a battery-operated AM/FM radio tuned to a local station and follow all emergency instructions.
If you're caught inside by rising waters, move to a higher floor. Take warm clothing, a flashlight and portable radio with you. Then wait for help. Do NOT try to swim to safety. Rescue teams will be looking for you.
If you are forced to evacuate, take your Go Bag with you.
When outside, remember floods are deceptive. Try to avoid flooded areas, and don't attempt to walk across stretches of flood waters more than knee deep.
Avoid driving on flooded roadways. Parts of the road may already be washed out, and you could become stranded or trapped.
If your car stalls in a flooded area, abandon it as soon as possible. Floodwaters can rise rapidly and sweep a car (and its occupants) away. Many deaths have resulted from attempts to move stalled vehicles.
For more winter weather tips and information, visit the OEM website.


This is the NYC.gov news you requested for:
Emergency Preparedness, Notifications and Alerts

[bd476]

Whew, it looks pretty bad for the next few days.

[nopardons]

Just damn! :-(

[lainie]

I feel badly for mentioning Maryland in the posting tonight. Seems that it's too iffy. But, being me, I'd sure rather know that not know. I have family staying here tonight and ended up with far less free time that I had expected. Now that I'm free everyone's gone to bed. Hope the storm sufferers are prepared! From what I could tell, looking around the net earlier tonight, there was little in the way of warnings. TV watchers probably were more fortunate.

[BurbankKarl]

Listening to Art Bell? This guy is classic.

Saying Project Blue Book was military intelligence agents going out to people that saw "classified" aircraft and convinced them it was UFOs.

[lainie]

Picking it up late, yea, I'm listening.

[bd476]

Fascinating. I've heard bits and pieces. The guy sounds to me like he is making stuff up as he goes along and Art Bell sounds like he's responding with a tongue-in-cheek attitude.

[bd476]

It's always good to know what's coming weather wise. I would want to know, too.

[7.62 x 51mm]

Nothing here, so far, in York, PA. We've still got 2-3" on the ground from last Thursday-Friday's hit of 5-6".

Timecheck: 3:53am...

[Cboldt]

I'm fixin (maybe) to fly through Philly early Tuesday AM, on my way to Milton. Best guess says delay to the next day, but those stinking airlines make one wait for the cancelation.

About a foot and a half on the ground just north of Portland, Maine.

[lainie]

The guy sounds to me like he is making stuff up as he goes along and Art Bell sounds like he's responding with a tongue-in-cheek attitude.

That's his whole show description.