Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[lainie]

[Howlin]

Can you move that screen? :-)

[NCjim]

Thanks for the offer - her school is on Edwards Mill Road and I work at RTP. It took two hours to get to her school and then 8+ to get through Wade Avenue, Ridge Road (I-440 was stopped entirely), then a short jaunt on I-440 to Six Forks Road, Sandy Forks Road, then Falls of the Neuse Road to the church where I finally parked after all roads into North Ridge were blocked off by the police due to the number of accidents!

[nwctwx]

The NWS is currently predicting 4-8 inches here in southern NH (never mind Boston, where rain will probably cut down accumulations). This is boringly normal, not "historic".

Maybe boring in your backyard, a low as deep as this is supposed to be is not normal though... maybe once every few years. Then again, when I made a post about a coming blizzard 2 days before the late Feb one some people here called me crazy. ;)

[larryjohnson]

source?

[nwctwx]

Here is an "I don't like this, I don't like this one bit" BUMP!

:-D.. don't worry there will probably be more after this one.

[nwctwx]

I visited the site. I found the threads and comments disjointed and only for insiders. But thanks for the maps you posted here. I am degreed, but retired and removed from today's meteorology. I read Caribou, ME discussions and spot snow measurements from my cove.

It's really wild today, but is usually an excellent place for information... we have several big name mets posting there from time to time, but it is a bit of an insider thing at times.

We have several excellent posters from Maine, always looking for more..

[larryjohnson]

Thanx for invite.

[nwctwx]

HPC Snowfall Maps: >4" Probability

Day1

Day2

HPC Snowfall Maps: >8" Probability

Day1

Day2

[xcamel]

http://snow-forecast.com/

good site.

[lainie]

Off-topic kinda: what do you think of NOAA officially naming "El Niño" as the cause for the 2004-2005 California storms?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2395.htm

[Revel]

Well it looks like the snow forcast is tamming down a bit as I am looking around.

[nwctwx]

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
535 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY...

.A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WHILE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. BY MONDAY EVENING...THE STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

CTZ005>007-009>011-NJZ002>005-011-NYZ067>071-280400-
BERGEN NJ-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
535 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING.

SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL BY
THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE...OR USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS.
SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING. PRACTICE YOUR WINTER
SAFETY RULES...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR CAR
IN CASE OF EMERGENCY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/OKX FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

[nwctwx]

Well it looks like the snow forcast is tamming down a bit as I am looking around.

In which area?

[IonImplantGuru]

...how deep would 9 feet of water be if it were in snow?

some folks use 1" rain = 10" snow as a rule of thumb. Really depends on what kind of snow it is: light and fluffy, or what they call 'wet snow' which can be damn near like porridge. The former might give a 1 : 12 or 14 ratio, the latter might be 1 : 5 or less.

Using the rule of thumb, you'd have 90 feet of snow!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I would expect to see that in next weeks papers.

[xcamel]

I wouldn't turn my back on this one just yet.....

[nwctwx]

Off-topic kinda: what do you think of NOAA officially naming "El Niño" as the cause for the 2004-2005 California storms?

Makes sense, I believe many have thought there was at least a week el-nino all winter. It has not been the typical set up, but the results have been similar on the west coast.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Reason for the question was the Friday article , in the Los Angeles Times, regarding Opids Camp above Pasadena where this rainy season, has accumulated 107 inches of rain..., they get some snow also....it has been wet out here.

[andy58-in-nh]

I'll tell you what...if this really turns out to be a "971mb Low", then the NWS forecasters (who've clearly been pulling their hair out over the divergent computer models on this storm) are going to be "all wet" (or maybe that ought to be all white), as I'd expect a bit more than what they're predicting from a storm with a center below 29 inches of mercury.