Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

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U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[angcat]

As long as I have extra diapers for diaper butt I'm fine. I am about 90 miles north or Philly in Drums PA.

[StarFan]

Darn, that means we'll get it around 10:00ish here and I'll have to once again cancel my dental appointment. Dentist only comes in on Mondays and I've had to already cancel four out of seven appointments due to snow, which always seems to come on a Monday. He's 83 years old and drives the 1-1/2 hours from L.I. yet I won't drive the 20 minutes to his office, go figure.

[expatpat]

Thanks for both explanations.

[Dog]

83 years old....how shaky is his hands?

[mware]

Did Hurricane say anything about what South Jersey is going to get???

[mware]

Hey Jim I have your book signed by O'Neill, a three dollar bill with Kerry's face on it, (signed by O'Neill) and a genuine Pajama Patrol Deputy badge for you.

Ping me with your address.

[ncpatriot]

Snowing now in mtns. Expecting a foot here.

[Malacoda]

You call yours "diaper butt," too???

My diaper butt turned 1 on Friday!

We're loaded up on "fish cookies" (Pepperidge Farm goldfish crackers) and apple juice, so we're good to go.

My three and a half year old is going to make me NUTS tomorrow, though. "Can we go out in the snow? x's 1,00000000000.

[nwctwx]

Thanks for the report, wherabouts?

[Malacoda]

I didn't really pay attention; I think you guys are in the 8 -12 inches expected band.

[hipaatwo]

[Natchez Hawk]

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

Please, really let it snow..............

[oceanview]

Kocin on TWC says the model that comes in between 10-10:30PM EST will nail the track down and the associated snowfall amount predictions.

[ncpatriot]

NC near TN/VA

[angcat]

LOL mine is 16 months and I have a 10 year old also. I'm sure they will cancel school tomorrow. I tell her she is diaper butt and I sit her on the potty but she gets off the potty and pees on the floor! LOL the potty training is not going well.

[nwctwx]

The GFS will be in around then, TWC's model of choice. Most of the major short term models will be in around that time as well. NAM is running within the half hour.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[nwctwx]

Thanks, good to hear. :)

[dennis1x]

The storm earlier in the year bottomed out at 980mb, this one is already 997mb... in the Gulf of Mexico. It will easily bottom out as low or lower than the February blizzard. A major difference here is that the February blizzard mmainly affected Boston, SE MASS and Cape Cod with "historic" snows, everywhere else... it was a "run of the mill" event.

NYC and Philly, as well as Boston, got much more from the big storm this year than they will with this one. Noone is forecast to get much more than a foot from this one whereas NYC got 20" and portions of the NE got 30+. However you cut it, this is not a historic storm and is "run of the mill" for everyone.

[wtc911]

We are in for particularly nasty weather.

[LibFreeOrDie]

For Boston-area folks, as of 7:30 PM, here's what Todd Gross (the weatherman who recognized "the perfect storm") has to say (from http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ ):

"TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: For Weather Junkies Only :) Posted daily by Chief Meteorologist Todd Gross Monday through Friday around 6pm.

I can't keep this emotional roller coaster up. After the ocean enhancement verified and we received 8" of snow in Boston Thursday night, now we have another classic setting up with a twist. For days, the ECMF / GEM, and GFS were at odds with the NAM model , saying this would be a short wave running out into the water, rather than heading up inland. That short/medium wave that runs up along the full latitude trough is "key" to the track of the storm, but the track itself is ALSO influenced by the coastal front that sets up, it's initial position, climatology based on land-water interaction (coastline shape), and of course cold air damming from the retreating high,

Bottom line: Now that the models are converging on a short/medium wave that runs up coast and tears pretty much straight into us, and a surface system that stays just offshore, and intense vertical velocities to +30 (-30 omega) and intense warm advection, and 1000-850 thickness NOT going above critical until 11pm, we have on our hands a potential for an incredibly strong hit in a short period of time on Monday evening. Even if the NAM(ETA) is right, and the interior track takes place with the upper feature (the short/medium wave), the surface low will not be able to move inland due to the damming, and coastal front setup, meaning Boston will never really get into the warm air, the track would be up through the south shore. And even using that "warmer" scenario, BUFKIT still comes up with .7" of precip while it is snowing, and most of it falls in just a few hours. This is the basis for keeping Chikages 6-12" forecast.

Let's talk about something that may never happen, but is forecast by the GFS at the current time (and the GEM too, but especially the 18z GFS) 1" of precipitation in the period 7pm to 1am on Monday night. 1". No changeover, not even close downtown. Then another .5" of precipitation in the following 6 hours. Even if the ratio is only 10:1 (should be a bit more), then that means 15" of snow overnight Monday night inside Rt. 128. PLUS, being a farther east track, it is a smoother transition to additional backwash light snows tuesday into Wed.

7:30pm Sunday night: I just checked critical thicknesses again for the GFS, as of the 12z run, it is a bit close late in the game, with 1300 meters at 1000-850mb coming up to the south shore, possibly barely touching Boston briefly around 4am on Tuesday morning. Close, close close..

Looking at Kocin and Uccellini's original book Snowstorms Along the Northeastern Coast of the US 1955 to 1985 for the best analog storms (this IS classic) - i am finding some.. but like snowflakes, no two storms are exactly alike:

March 20th, 1956 (13-20" ) is one..
Dec 13th, 1960 is another, with 18" almost everywhere

Bear in mind that this book lists only the storms that actually DID end up producing big amounts, do don't run away with this. However, even with this funky short wave kicking up the east side, it is absolutely a textbook setup from the NW flow Jet streak initially over the Northeast prior to the storm (the NW flow that lifts out) to the digging short into the midwest that sets up the full latitude trough, and picks up our coastal storm, and the bombogenesis that follows. :)"