Bias against Poland

"...But we don't want them either..."

Guess what...Really??! To tell you the truth - that is no surprise to me. The political price for keeping such installations is much bigger than the economical benefit since you never know, what America is going to do in the future on your own soil. Foreign millitary bases are a loss of sovereignty. Political persons, policys and ideologies can change within a few minutes and the existance of big millitary complexes controlled by a foreign nation can turn into a nightmare. I already said, that most Germans are against the American presence in Ramstein and Spangdahlem, because they do not believe in the current US-policy anymore and refuse all US-actions in the middle east. I am quite sure, that the Americans will leave Germany within the next 10 years, because it will be easy to win future German elections with this issue. Schröder or his successors are going to take this chance no matter what lip-service they give to the Americans.

The Poles would be probably more convinced, if some real American investment into the Polish economy would take place. Although Poland is one of the best places in this world to earn money in the moment, because they have a hungry market and stable conditions, nothing really substantical from America seem to happen. It must be alarming to many conservative Americans that especially the "old" Europeans will make the race. I believe that close economic ties are a much stronger connection between nations than the cheap gift of a few outdated fighters (does Poland get F-22s?), tanks or other crap.

I think the best advise for Poland will be keeping all possibilties open. Like in an old proverb they are like a beautiful girl that has to dance on all marriages without saying "yes" too early. You have to be choosy with your partners and first impressions can lead to disappointment.

"Political persons, policys and ideologies can change within a few minutes and the existance of big millitary complexes controlled by a foreign nation can turn into a nightmare."

Yes, you are right. I would support some symbolic American military presence in Poland - for example 2-3 logistical bases - not more than 2000 soldiers - it would help them to deploy faster other bigger units If it was ever needed.

We would rather prefer to see American bases for example in Lithuania.

"I believe that close economic ties are a much stronger connection between nations than the cheap gift of a few outdated fighters (does Poland get F-22s?), tanks or other crap."

You mean German military aid ? We have gotten so far 128 tanks, 23 fighters and other equipment from Germany, not much from US.
F-22 ? This is the newest US fighter - one cost about $100 million without weapon etc. They wouldn't give it for free even Israelis.
We bought 48 new F-16's, we got very good financial conditions - long therm loan, which will be repaid mostly in 2012-2018, but it only means that Lockheed Martin has good lobbyists. If not this loan, we would buy French Mirage-2000, or Swedish Grippen - they also offered very good conditions.

The German millitary aid was no big sacrifice, although I believe it was a good replacement of some much older (Russian) weapon systems in Poland. If it had not been given to Poland (the Leo 2s and the MiG 29s) we would have sold the stuff to China (giggle, giggle) or scrapped it, since we do not need it anymore due to such a nice neighbourhood with Poland.

:-)

The F-16 are really nothing special and probably not able to match future threats and opponents. I would prefer flying a SU-30 MKI, a Rafale or an EF2000 over an airplane, that flew for the first time in 1976. Updated scratch - nothing more. It would have been more honest from America to sell up-to-date stuff to you, even if it had been much more expensive. You shouldn't forget that your next enemys could be Iran or China (who both bought very efficent weapon systems from all around the world) if you keep standing into your staunch alliance with the US in the future. Could get really messy since Putin, Chirac and last but not least, our chancellor Schröder are makeing their business everywhere...

BTW - I do not think in millitary categories. This doesn't play a big role between the developed nations in Europe or America anymore. Real power refers to the economic possibilies of each nation. This will be the big strength of Poland in the future since your requirements are more than good. Over the EU you can build up infrastructures for free and you have a starving market in your country. This will be a real mixture of sucess. Since the US do not invest much in your economy they will have problems to keep up with this development of the future. From the moment you have enough money Poles will be really free to decide they you want do do and witch way they want to go (i.E. to be a EU-member or not or to buy real good fighters). I am sure that it will not take a long time anymore...

Yes, I agree with you about the German military aid, however this is still useful and quite good equipment, especially in a case of tanks. It wasn't only charity, sooner or later we will upgrade them to A6 standard and this time we probably will have to pay for it. We also got from Germany about 16 or 18 ex-DDR Mi-24's. Many Germans would be surprised If they knew that 4 of them are now in Iraq and help these evil Americans to enslave poor Iraqis :)

"The F-16 are really nothing special and probably not able to match future threats and opponents."

Well, It's not any Wunderwaffe, but this is F-16 C/D block52.

The same version had been ordered by Israelis a year earlier - it means that this is good equipment.
The difference between F-16 A/B and F-16 C/D block52 is like between...

and...

SU-30 MKI, Rafale or Eurofighter ?
Rafale represent about the same level, SU-30 MKI is a little better in the air battle, but worse against ground targets, EFA is generally a little better, but much more expensive.

"I do not think in millitary categories. This doesn't play a big role between the developed nations in Europe or America anymore."

Yes, I don't say that Europeans should buy thousands of new tanks, artillery etc, but European countries should have more unites trained to occupation/stabilization missions, which could be sent to Afghanistan, Balkans etc. Germans were crying that Bush doesn't care about their opinion... Yes, but how many soldiers could Germany send to Iraq ? 3-5 thousand soldiers ? How much cash could Germany spend rebuilding (Or whatever you call it) Iraq with this problems with the budget ? Not much. France, Germany and others would like to be treated like partners by US, but Americans care only about strong and valuable allies.
In a case of Poland I may only say that we are selfish and care only about our own interests. If Bush said one bad word about us or even didn't praise us enough hard, our soldiers would be immediately withdrawn from Iraq, even If they had to come back on foot.

BTW The only, who wanted to tell us what kind of airplanes we should buy were Mr Chirac and Mr Prrrodi.

"...France, Germany and others would like to be treated like partners by US, but Americans care only about strong and valuable allies..."

You are right. But France and Germany were strong enough that they could say "no", since they didn't want to join into Americas little war in Iraq. In fact America was a littlebit helpless after we (let's say my gouvernment) did that, because they had to finance this adventure completely alone (exept of Japan, Poland, UK etc.). The US were never interested in German or French soldiers - they counted with a real huge sum of money. During the first Iraq war Helmut Kohl paid about 24.000.000.000,00 Euros to America. This time Schröder and Fischer paid about 50.000.000,00 Euros witch is quite a difference and they whined bitterly (BUHUHAHA) in front of the whole world about the heavy finanical burden they shared in Iraq. Furthermore Schröder declared in Munich that he wants to change NATO into a debating club. The summary of all this BS is, that German politicians do not care about American wishes anymore and they piss on NATO. They are really not interested. What could be the reason for this strange kind of behavior??!

I have an answer for you:

The gouvernments of Germany and France do not see the trans-atlantic partnership as the basement of their political actions and future anymore, since they do not like the neo-conservative, contemporary administration. Western Europe ist quite sure, that the US can't keep their position of being the only superpower in this world for a long time. There are others who appear with force on the horizon like China and India. Even Russia will find some of its old strength again (I know that this will be a nighmare for you, but I think it is quite likely). You can be sure that my gouvernment and the Frenchies will make super business in those nations, because countries like China or Russia have reason to bother the Americans. They do not need America since western Europe has all the technology they need to develop comparable standarts and those nations will get everything they dream of, just as long they pay enough money for it. This process will give big thrust to our ill economys and is extremly important for the political survival of Chirac and Schröder. All this blahblah during G.W.B. and Condolezza's visit was lip-service and politeness. Nothing more. Chirac and Schröder eat babies for breakfast if they would have a reason to do so. I doubt that they have real interest in playing a more "important" role (i.E. security council) in this world. They just want to do business as usual.

"...BTW The only, who wanted to tell us what kind of airplanes we should buy were Mr Chirac and Mr Prrrodi..."

I know that the Americans pressurized your gouvernment to buy their planes just like the Europeans did. It is always the same old game: You get a letter or a call from the President, Kanzler or whatever and you have problems to say "no". Anyway it was not a bad business for Poland because of the "pay-back-deal" with the GM-"Zafira"-factory in Silesia. I guess this was much more important than the delivery of those 48 F-16s for your airforce.

BTW - The F 16 is a very beautiful and elegant plane. The Polish airforce will have a real "sexy" baby in their hangars - even if I am still not convinced of the efficience of this weapon. And - I like the old Golf 1 better than the new one because that war was some kind of "cult". My best friend is an old Golfmaniac...

"You are right. But France and Germany were strong enough that they could say "no", since they didn't want to join into Americas little war in Iraq."

It seems that I have a little different opinion in this issue. This was, in my opinion mostly, as usually, about the money and some... ambitions and pride and political situation in a case of Germany. I don't know If it is true, but once I read in serious magazine that France was (before the war in 2002) ready to send about 20.000 soldiers to Iraq If US asked them politely, give them billions in contracts and give them their own occupation zone etc. It was just too much for Americans and they decided that they may do it on their own with a little help of UK and little help of others.
In result all this French and German story about evil Americans, who want to kill poor Iraqis and destroy their paradise created by uncle Saddam was started.

"The US were never interested in German or French soldiers "

I'm not so sure.

"The gouvernments of Germany and France do not see the trans-atlantic partnership as the basement of their political actions and future anymore, since they do not like the neo-conservative, contemporary administration. "

In my opinion this not only about the current administration. Germany and France want to be treated by US like equal partners, not like children. Germany and France aren't enough strong to do it, so that's why they support so much European integration and want to dominate EU.
I understand it, but they [or rather we EUnuchs :-)] should improve their economy and military abilities (then Americans would have to treat Europeans like equal partners)not try some tricks, tactical alliances with Russia or China etc.

"Even Russia will find some of its old strength again (I know that this will be a nighmare for you, but I think it is quite likely)"

In 10 years Russia will be stronger, but I doubt that in 50 years this country will still exist. One part of Asian Russia will be probably taken over by China, the other one will be bought by Japan, Southern European part will be overtaken by Muslims - the rest as a whole or in pieces will become a part of EU. More possible will be conflict between Poland and Germany over Kaliningrad (who should take it) than Poland once again dominated by Russia.

"You can be sure that my gouvernment and the Frenchies will make super business in those nations, because countries like China or Russia have reason to bother the Americans."

Some day you will understand that China and Russia are not (at least not yet) civilized countries but it may be painful. In a case of any conflict, which sooner or later will happen If EU want to play significant role in the world, China and Russia will just nationalize French, German investment and what will you do ? Send a regiment of foreign legion and a brigade of grenadiers ?
The world dominated by US is not excellent, but for sure better than the world dominated by China.

"I know that the Americans pressurized your gouvernment to buy their planes just like the Europeans did."

Sure, but they at least tried to hid it.

01.03.2015

As-salamu aleikum dear friends from Poland!

Since I am living in the Kalifat of Baden-Württemberg in the south of new Turkey, my daydreams of a tastey Polish "Krakauer" (that is of course strictly forbidden to me in the meantime) are hunting me. Not to talk of good old Polish Wodka (really the best in the world - better than Putin's (Jelzin's) industry alcohol). My friends from the islamic republic of new Algeria can't eat their "Lyoner" or drink their Beaujolais either. Only mountains of halal cheese are left over from better times. There is only one real benefit that western Europe is devoted to Koran and Islam now:

The Queen of new Pakistan has to wear a traditional burkha*...

wassalam!

Sheik Andreas

* It would not be bad if the King of new Pakistan would join his godly wife in wearing one!

You should not forget that Saddam Hussein was absolutely no problem for France and Germany. Believe it or not - Chirac loves money and voters too. To run a force of 20.000 soldiers in a hostile country with a truckload of caskets being sendt home each week, is not very funny. It is especially not funny, if your voters are absolutely not convinced of the necessity. Chirac is of course an idiot, but he has a feeling for the existential orientation of the French people. This is the reason why they voted for him. It would have been political suicide if he would helped the US with 20.000 soldiers. Same thing with Schröder.

The Americans already started to calm down. I do not care if Germany is treated like an "equal" partner from them, because sooner or later they will follow the realities. The current US-administration knows very well that we are the key to many projects of them. They need our help in Iran for instance. France (8.6 %) and Germany (11 %) are by far the biggest import partners of Iran. We are the market where the Iranians buy nearly everthing. If we do not want to give them technology or whatever, we just have to stop the exports. Iran hasn't got too much options to purchase anywhere else, since China and Russia need our machinery or technology also to keep up with the current world standarts. Germany is still the biggest exporter in the world (yes we export more than the US or Japan!). That fact maybe doesn't give us a superpower status but a really loud voice that is heared in Washington too. Have you ever wondered why the Americans are so mad about those two "irrelevant cheeseeating surrender monkeys/krauts"? Do you think they would have been as mad about us if we would have really the importance of two small irrelevant countries? It will be better for this world if both sides of the Atlantic work togehter. Therefore some things have to be changed - in Europe and America.

"...More possible will be conflict between Poland and Germany over Kaliningrad (who should take it) than Poland once again dominated by Russia..."

Very unlikely. You can keep Kaliningrad if you want to. We got East Germany back. That was already more than a real nightmare...

Russia is dangerous. Not for Poland anymore, but for the other east European countries like Ukraine, Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia. It is not that sure that NATO will be that self contained in the wider future. First indices for a beginning decay are on their way. What will be, if NATO mutates into a debating club like Schröder proposed?

The future will be interesting...

BTW - If the EU could take part of the Russian natural resources in exchange for development it would be a wonderful business. I do not want to have the Russians as an enemy. I want them as a partner.

"You should not forget that Saddam Hussein was absolutely no problem for France and Germany."

I'm sure that people would hear that Saddam and his WMD was a threat to the whole world If governments got enough cash and other "gifts".

"To run a force of 20.000 soldiers in a hostile country with a truckload of caskets being sendt home each week, is not very funny."

Most of them would have been Poles, Russians, Ukrainians... from the French foreign legion.

"Very unlikely. You can keep Kaliningrad if you want to. We got East Germany back. That was already more than a real nightmare... "

It will happen in 20-30 years. The number of Germans, who think that former DDR is Middle Germany is already growing.

"Russia is dangerous. Not for Poland anymore, but for the other east European countries like Ukraine, Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia."

It's true. Few people remember that just a while ago a Russian spy became a President of Lithuania.

"If the EU could take part of the Russian natural resources in exchange for development it would be a wonderful business."

Yes, but I doubt it will happen. Most of Russian resources is located in Siberia, which sooner or later will be overtaken by China - near the Russian-Chinese border there live about 3 million people (including already hundreds thousand of Chinese) on the Russian side and about 120 million people on the Chinese side.

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