Replies

"You are right. But France and Germany were strong enough that they could say "no", since they didn't want to join into Americas little war in Iraq."

It seems that I have a little different opinion in this issue. This was, in my opinion mostly, as usually, about the money and some... ambitions and pride and political situation in a case of Germany. I don't know If it is true, but once I read in serious magazine that France was (before the war in 2002) ready to send about 20.000 soldiers to Iraq If US asked them politely, give them billions in contracts and give them their own occupation zone etc. It was just too much for Americans and they decided that they may do it on their own with a little help of UK and little help of others.
In result all this French and German story about evil Americans, who want to kill poor Iraqis and destroy their paradise created by uncle Saddam was started.

"The US were never interested in German or French soldiers "

I'm not so sure.

"The gouvernments of Germany and France do not see the trans-atlantic partnership as the basement of their political actions and future anymore, since they do not like the neo-conservative, contemporary administration. "

In my opinion this not only about the current administration. Germany and France want to be treated by US like equal partners, not like children. Germany and France aren't enough strong to do it, so that's why they support so much European integration and want to dominate EU.
I understand it, but they [or rather we EUnuchs :-)] should improve their economy and military abilities (then Americans would have to treat Europeans like equal partners)not try some tricks, tactical alliances with Russia or China etc.

"Even Russia will find some of its old strength again (I know that this will be a nighmare for you, but I think it is quite likely)"

In 10 years Russia will be stronger, but I doubt that in 50 years this country will still exist. One part of Asian Russia will be probably taken over by China, the other one will be bought by Japan, Southern European part will be overtaken by Muslims - the rest as a whole or in pieces will become a part of EU. More possible will be conflict between Poland and Germany over Kaliningrad (who should take it) than Poland once again dominated by Russia.

"You can be sure that my gouvernment and the Frenchies will make super business in those nations, because countries like China or Russia have reason to bother the Americans."

Some day you will understand that China and Russia are not (at least not yet) civilized countries but it may be painful. In a case of any conflict, which sooner or later will happen If EU want to play significant role in the world, China and Russia will just nationalize French, German investment and what will you do ? Send a regiment of foreign legion and a brigade of grenadiers ?
The world dominated by US is not excellent, but for sure better than the world dominated by China.

"I know that the Americans pressurized your gouvernment to buy their planes just like the Europeans did."

Sure, but they at least tried to hid it.

You should not forget that Saddam Hussein was absolutely no problem for France and Germany. Believe it or not - Chirac loves money and voters too. To run a force of 20.000 soldiers in a hostile country with a truckload of caskets being sendt home each week, is not very funny. It is especially not funny, if your voters are absolutely not convinced of the necessity. Chirac is of course an idiot, but he has a feeling for the existential orientation of the French people. This is the reason why they voted for him. It would have been political suicide if he would helped the US with 20.000 soldiers. Same thing with Schröder.

The Americans already started to calm down. I do not care if Germany is treated like an "equal" partner from them, because sooner or later they will follow the realities. The current US-administration knows very well that we are the key to many projects of them. They need our help in Iran for instance. France (8.6 %) and Germany (11 %) are by far the biggest import partners of Iran. We are the market where the Iranians buy nearly everthing. If we do not want to give them technology or whatever, we just have to stop the exports. Iran hasn't got too much options to purchase anywhere else, since China and Russia need our machinery or technology also to keep up with the current world standarts. Germany is still the biggest exporter in the world (yes we export more than the US or Japan!). That fact maybe doesn't give us a superpower status but a really loud voice that is heared in Washington too. Have you ever wondered why the Americans are so mad about those two "irrelevant cheeseeating surrender monkeys/krauts"? Do you think they would have been as mad about us if we would have really the importance of two small irrelevant countries? It will be better for this world if both sides of the Atlantic work togehter. Therefore some things have to be changed - in Europe and America.

"...More possible will be conflict between Poland and Germany over Kaliningrad (who should take it) than Poland once again dominated by Russia..."

Very unlikely. You can keep Kaliningrad if you want to. We got East Germany back. That was already more than a real nightmare...

Russia is dangerous. Not for Poland anymore, but for the other east European countries like Ukraine, Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia. It is not that sure that NATO will be that self contained in the wider future. First indices for a beginning decay are on their way. What will be, if NATO mutates into a debating club like Schröder proposed?

The future will be interesting...

BTW - If the EU could take part of the Russian natural resources in exchange for development it would be a wonderful business. I do not want to have the Russians as an enemy. I want them as a partner.