GOP's 10 most at-risk

The Hill ^ | 17 feb 05 | Hans Nichols

[white trash redneck]

House Republican leaders last night notified their 10 most vulnerable lawmakers that they will be the lucky beneficiaries of this year's first ROMP (Retain Our Majority Program) fundraiser.

The list provides an early preview of who GOP leaders think need the most help from their fellow lawmakers. It also lets potential Democratic challengers know that any run will be expensive.

The 10 members are Reps. Bob Beauprez (Colo.), Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Jim Gerlach (Pa.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.), Anne Northup (Ky.), Jon Porter (Nev.), Dave Reichert (Wash.), Rick Renzi (Ariz.), Rob Simmons (Conn.) and Mike Sodrel (Ind.). Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), who narrowly won his 2004 race, is not on the list.

ROMP was designed by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) in 1999 to funnel money from legislators hailing from safe seats to those who represent more marginal districts. Typically, a ROMP beneficiary receives upwards of $100,000 from each event and rarely spends less than $2 million defending his or her seat.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has not yet determined which Democrats will be included in the "Frontline" program, the Democrats' carbon copy of ROMP.

"We're still talking to members with Congressman [Mike] Thompson [D-Calif.]," said Greg Speed, spokesman for the DCCC. Earlier this year, DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) tapped Thompson to quarterback the Democrats' Frontline effort.

But Republicans clearly want to boost their vulnerable members' first-quarter campaign-finance reporting numbers before those figures are due March 31. To that end, DeLay will host the cycle's inaugural ROMP fundraiser March 17, St. Patrick's Day. There could be as many as four ROMPs this year, with those later in the cycle focusing more on promising challengers.

This year's first batch has seven repeats from last cycle and includes three newcomers: Fitzpatrick, Reichert and Sodrel. Sodrel defeated Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.), the only Frontline Democrat outside of Texas who lost in November.

"If incumbents are seen as safe, it will free up more offensive opportunities later in the election year," said Jim Ellis, director of DeLay's ARMPAC.

Lawmakers selected for the first ROMP round were elated.

"The congressman is extremely happy to be included in the first ROMP event and is greatly appreciative of the assistance he is receiving from his colleagues towards his reelection," said Mike Conallen, Fitzpatrick's chief of staff.

"Being included in that event will help us achieve that goal," he added.

As a result of the campaign-finance legislation passed three years ago, the first quarter of a nonelection year has become increasingly important in the fundraising game. Even though many freshmen are still setting up their offices and reeling from the last campaign, they need to post strong numbers to ward off any potential challengers. The last cycle was the first in which the first FEC reporting deadline was in late March, not late June.

"The March 31 deadline comes up in a hurry," said Josh Mathis, a lobbyist with Bockorny Petrizzo, who managed Reichert's campaign.

Democrats said that their Frontline list would be forthcoming and that their effort last year - their first official foray into member-to-member giving - was a success.

"We reelected everyone, all but one of our incumbents outside of Texas, last year," said Speed.

"Our top goal remains to reelect every single one of incumbents in 2006," he added.

[Horatio Gates]

No argument here if the GOP wants to protect the 8th. The political demographic is swinging for sure.

[UM_mac]

According to the Washington Post:

Renzi won 59-36.
Northup won 60-38

If these two make the top ten, we're in pretty good shape.

[llevrok]

The realities are that the day you arrive in DC, you start campaigning. But geesh! Dave has only been in town three weeks and already called endangered! (oh, how soon the music stops.....).

[GSlob]

"Is there a similar list for dimmocrats?"
Must be, and it would be called DUMP,[or 'domp' - they could not come with an original idea for the life of them, and would be copycatting even the name].

[Hank Rearden]

Why should I spend any of what's left of my hard-earned after Big Stupid Republican Government is finished stealing a huge chunk - all to prop up a bunch of free-spending, Ponzo-scheming Big Government politicians?

What the hell has the Republican Party done for us lately?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Does anybody know which of these congresscritters are good conservative solid citizens, and which are RINO's?"

---

Bob Beauprez (Colo.), Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Jim Gerlach (Pa.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.), Anne Northup (Ky.), Jon Porter (Nev.), Dave Reichert (Wash.), Rick Renzi (Ariz.) and Mike Sodrel (Ind.) are all pretty solid conservatives as far as I know. Rob Simmons (Conn.) and Christopher Shays (Conn.) are RINOs, although Simmons represents a very liberal district that would be almost impossible for a conservative to win and Shays's district wouldn't be easy for a conservative, either.

I'm surprised Mike Rogers (AL), Phil Gingrey (GA), Heather Wilson (NM), Robin Hayes (NC), Chris Chocola (IN), and Shelley Moore Capito (WV) didn't make the list. I think all of them are more potentially vulnerable than Musgrave.

[rockrr]

Reichert is (was) our largest county's Sheriff, and a good conservative. I didn't think that he was our best choice for this job because he is a good cop and a good administrator, but an unknown quantity as a blow-hard congresscritter ;'}
That said, I'm sure that he will do us proud here in Washington.

I hope that the GOP gives him support - I know that I will...

[Buck W.]

Do we have a similar list of vulnerable Senate seate? Frist's seat is open, and Santorum will probably have a tough challenge. Who else?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Frist's seat is open, and Santorum will probably have a tough challenge. Who else?"

---

Well, if you want to call Lincoln Chafee a Republican, then he's on top of the list---I don't think he will survive in 2006, and I would rather have him switch to the Democrats to allow us to (i) have a real Republican instead on his three committees and (ii) run a solid Repblican against Chafee instead of against Congressman Langevin in the general election (we can beat Chafee, but not Langevin). If Governor Mark Warner runs against Senator George Allen, Allen will have a tough race. I think Senator Burns of MT, who was reelected with like 52% in 2000, will get an easier ride in 2006, since the guy who did so well against him just got elected governor and the Dems don't have a very deep bench in MT. Other than that, I think the only seats we will have to defend are possible open seats in TX and OH (if Hutchison and DeWine run for governor) and MS and IN (if Lott and Lugar retire). The best action in 2006 will come from all of those vulnerable Democrats trying to keep their seats, especially if we have a few Dem retirements, which I think are likely---I think the GOP will pick up 2-4 net Senate seats in 2006.

[franksolich]

Yeah, I thought Anne Northup was on the "endangered" list just about every election, but she always survives.

She reminds me a great deal of the late Senator Hugh Scott (R-Pennsylvania), who was always in trouble, but always winning by 50.2%, 50.4%, 50.1%, and so on.....and he was re-elected a great many times.

[Purple GOPer]

It might be cynical, but I think it has more to do with scaring primary challengers than with scaring the Dems.

[cicero's_son]

Bingo. That's the answer.

[buccaneer81]

ROMP (Retain Our Majority Program) fundraiser.

Ahh... to be a ROMP Ranger...

[oldtimer]

I too have mixed emotions. Told the caller the other day that I contribute to individual Conservative candidates, and by the way, the Republican party has become the party of pork just as bad as the rat party.

Meanwhile, we just got handed a great victory today with Tort reform.

Any serious Conservative candidate needs to put me on their list, because I will contribute if they need it.

The South Dakota Republican party likes me.

[Coop]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has not yet determined which Democrats will be included in the "Frontline" program, the Democrats' carbon copy of ROMP. --- better known as Democrats Undergoing Major Problems (DUMP).

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Musgrave I think suffered from a bad year for Republicans in Colorado, plus a vicious campaign run against her by her opponent.

Chris Shays could be in trouble. He faced a strong challenge in 2004.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Let's come up with a DUMP (Democrats Unlikely to Maintain Position) program for the 10 most vunerable RATS.

Such a list would probably include Jim Matheson (UT), Dennis Moore (KS), Earl Pomeroy (ND), Melissa Bean (IL), Chet Edwards (TX) and a bunch of others that we could target if we had either the money or the right candidate.

[Reverend Bob]

Not on this list, because it will be an open seat, is the Minnesota Sixth. Mark Kennedy is stepping down to run for the Senate. The district has a slight Republican edge, but only barely, and the Dem candidate, again, is likely to be Patty Wetterling, who has lots of name recognition and financial backing. While the Rep nominee has yet to be chosen, the early favorite is State Senator Michele Bachman. Watch this race carefully. Sen Bachman is a conservative firebrand who gives the Minnesota DFL establishment fits. If she gets the nomination she'll need all the help she can get. She is, in fact, a freeper dream come true and would be a great asset in Washington.

Help her if you can. She's already declared her candidacy.

[ApesForEvolution]

I like the way Rep. Delay operates...he seems to be pretty consistently strong and straight.

[Torie]

I suspect only Shays and Gerlach are really vulnerable on this list, and maybe Musgrave, absent a real Dem trend of some significance.