Posted on 01/27/2005 8:46:16 PM PST by BroncosFan
INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS: Calculating Chinese Capabilities
January 27, 2005: Department of Defense intelligence analysts are having a hard time figuring out when China thinks it will be ready to make a grab for Taiwan. The recent surge in the construction of short range amphibious ships, and constant movement of more ballistic missiles to within range of Taiwan, indicate something may happen sooner rather than later. Taiwan is only 300 kilometers from China. There are about 600 DF-15 missiles (with a range of 600 kilometers) aimed at Taiwan now, and by next year, there may be 800. Moreover, it is suspected that these missiles, and their half ton warheads, are being equipped with precise GPS navigation systems. Such systems could cripple Taiwan's air force and air defenses.
China has been training its marines and army troops for amphibious operations. Because of all this, it is believed that China would be ready to make a run at Taiwan by 2010. By then they would have several hundred modern warplanes, dozens of destroyers and submarines, bombers equipped with anti-ship missiles and a long standing declaration that they would regain control of Taiwan one way or the other.
But other analysts point out that China has always done poorly in the early stages of a war, and that their program to create a large force of professional troops, and modern equipment, will take longer. Only small portions of the Chinese armed forces are getting trained and equipped to Western standards. Over 90 percent of the Chinese military are beset by decades old equipment designs and corrupt or incompetent leaders. Only with highly trained and well equipped troops, would they have a chance against Taiwanese and American forces.
To produce a large force like this would take another ten or twenty years, at least. In the meantime, the Taiwanese have noted the Chinese preparations, and have suddenly for modernization fever. Until recently, Taiwanese legislators were keen to cut their defense budget. No more.
Since the 1990s, Chinese officers have been writing books about the future of the Chinese military, and possible war involving Taiwan and the United States. The authors recognize many of China’s military problems, without admitting that the corruption and lack of readiness are as bad as they really are. But the books also discuss taking advantages of enemy vulnerabilities. Cyberwar, innovative tactics and electronic warfare are discussed, and China is known to be investing heavily in these areas.
The most worrisome aspect of all this is the nationalistic flavor of these books, making it seem like a sacred duty to regain Taiwan, and take on the United States, in order to restore China to its exalted position in the world. China has not been a major world power for over two centuries, and many Chinese leaders are harping on this big time. Foreign observers, and some Chinese, see all this as the usual ploy beleaguered dictators use to get their subjects minds off local problems.
The military dictatorship of Argentina used this in 1982, making a grab for the British Falkland islands, in the belief that the British would not exert themselves to take the islands back. The Argentine gamble failed, for the British did send a fleet to regain the islands. What most analysts of Chinese affairs fear most is “another Falklands,” with China going after Taiwan. The United States is a far more formidable military force than 1982 Britain. In 1982, the Argentines did manage to capture the Falklands, but a future attack on Taiwan might not even be able to grab the island before the American fleet and air force showed up to help out. Moreover, China has nuclear weapons, and the temptation to threaten use of nukes if more powerful American forces do not back off. China is playing with fire, and it's uncertain how many Chinese leaders are even aware of how dangerous a game they are involved in.
Dangerous for them. They use even one nuke and its all over for China.
They use even one nuke and its all over for China.
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I would also agree that the Chi-Coms are blind to reality in this regard. Blinded by their hate and fear of the example that Taiwan's democracy poses to their antiquated communist government. My take is that if China makes a grab of Taiwan, all hell will break loose, but beyond that, China's reward will be political and economic isolation from the Western world, the USA for sure, swift and immediate (if we still have a real President in the White House at the time), which will bring about economic chaos in the country, and most likely the rather rapid decay and end to the old-line Commies of China.
I don't think they see that possibility. The fact that the US has a strong President now, could be keeping Taiwan safe for a little time longer...perhaps.
I'd welcome a Chinese attempt on Taiwan, since its failure would likely bring down the entire Communist regime.
There is a chance that China might even get into a conflict with Russia over the oil rich Siberian region not to mention its tussle with Japan, India and Vietnam. India and US control the shipping lanes that is so vital for China. For now China has just too many problems surrounding it but China has been playing it smart here. It props up proxies to taken on its other enemies: N Korea to take on Japan and Pakistan to take on India while China itself will wait for its time to come and the American power to fall. And after that a powerful (nuclear)China will make its first move.
America must strike out China now and with minimum use of force put it out of economic competition for next 30 years. The best way to do that is to provoke China or limit its economic, military or diplomatic options into making it do something stupid.
"They use even one nuke and its all over for China."
China is too smart for that. They will pass on the nukes to their proxies who would be reckless enough to use it or atleast would resort to nuclear blackmail. So long China has nukes there will be more and more dictators with nukes (eg. Pakistan & N Korea). China mind you is now propping up a nuclear Iran to keep America occupied so that the American heat is not directly on China-Taiwan conflict. It gives them vital time to make more economic amd military growth to prepare for future conflict. It suits well for China that America remains preoccupied with small time despots and wastes its economic and military rescources on them while China meanwhile economically amd militarily strengthens itself. Thats the Chinese calculation.
occupied= preoccupied
...while China meanwhile economically amd militarily strengthens itself. Thats the Chinese calculation.
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Certainly without question an applicable strategy for them. It works for them. A bit of a mental game but...the day present is a gamble for them. Do they take advantage of the US having diluted military resources in the ME and make a grab for Taiwan? An interesting mental gymnastic. But regardless of when and where China might do something, our retaliation would not be with ground forces...but both economic and the presence of a vastly superior nuclear delivery capability. A real chess game, is it not ??? ..but the world should not think they are not sitting on the other side of the board...
It is true that there is a danger here. But I wonder just how much. China depends on the U.S. for trade. They would surely be hesitant to risk an embargo that could seriously cripple their economy. OTOH, corruption is so widespread and endemic, that many peasants are not happy. Governments have started wars before to take citizens' minds off of their domestic problems.
PING
I wonder why people in the West constantly underestimate their passion for 'One China.'
It is an ingrained Chinese attitude nurtured for two millenia. Their rulers routinely sacrificed 2/3 of its population to make China one again after an old dynasty fell.
What appears to be prohibitive cost to Westerners may be totally acceptable to Chinese rulers.
China will not make a move until they can be sure that Taiwan will not take the war to them which of course they will. They may make threats with nukes but they know that if they hit us with one then it will be all over.
"Do they take advantage of the US having diluted military resources in the ME and make a grab for Taiwan?"
---If I should think like a Chinese President I wont be making my move now. I would think of opening up more fronts for America like in Iran, Syria and N Korea. While America keeps fighting here and there I would want China to go on making progress till China is sufficiently strong and America is sufficiently weakened. For now America is too strong. Anyway the Chinese economy is booming, so why spoil the party. Let America fight and China will sit back and watch the fun.
..but the world should not think they are not sitting on the other side of the board...
For India, China is definitely a threat. (BTW-I am from India.) In fact most of India's calculations for the future is based on the premises that India will have to face a major threat from China (under a possible diminished American influence in the region) who would not like to see an Indian challange on its western front.
Precisely why China wont make any move now. China's gamble is for the future. Meanwhile China would love to prop up new dictatorial/terrorist (eg. Iran,Syria,Paskitan,N Korea) hotbeds for America to get involved in untill America runs out of steam.
"China will not make a move until they can be sure that Taiwan will not take the war to them which of course they will"
I'm not sure if I read your statement correctly? Are you saying that Taiwan will make the first strike against China??
If that's the case I would have to disagree. Taiwan gets more sypathy while playing itself as the victim of a bully (which it is), but if it were to pick up and take the fight home that would provide too much of an excuse of the United States to back away from having to defend Taiwan and within a few years Taiwan will not be able to fend China off on its own.
China will wait until their assets are back in control of the White House in 09.
That will be great but the current trends are in the reverse direction.
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