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And They're Off! (The 2008 GOP handicapping begins)
The Weekly Standard ^ | January 31, 2005 | Duncan Currie

Posted on 01/27/2005 6:50:53 PM PST by RWR8189

TOO EARLY FOR REPUBLICANS TO fret about 2008? Never! Before last week's inaugural fireworks had even been lit, the handicapping of 2008 Republican hopefuls was well underway. GOP sources slice the potential '08ers into an A-list and a B-list. Here's a quick roundup of who's where, as President Bush kicks off Act Two. First the A-listers:

* John McCain. To conservative eyes, the Arizona senator has a lengthy rap sheet. McCain championed campaign-finance reform. He piqued the Christian Right in 2000. He opposed Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. He supports embryonic stem-cell research. And he's backed a host of other media-friendly issues--anti-tobacco legislation, a patients' bill of rights, gun control, CO2 emissions caps--that conservatives spurn.

But after the 2004 election, McCain's star is rising. He campaigned robustly for President Bush. That helped quash the residual bitterness of 2000. Also, McCain gave a superb speech at the Republican convention, in which he made a cogent case for the Iraq war. Still, his maverick bent will prove a burden. McCain's other big minus? He turns 72 in 2008. His big plus? Thanks to his Vietnam heroism and crossover appeal, he's the candidate Democrats fear most.

* Rudy Giuliani. It's hard to gauge how badly the Bernard Kerik fiasco hurts Giuliani long-term. On the one hand, the ex-mayor remains wildly popular and can thrill Republican crowds. On the other, Rudy's rivals will no doubt hang Kerik around his neck (along with Giuliani's two divorces and marital infidelity). But leave Kerik aside. Giuliani's true Achilles' heel is his social liberalism. He supports abortion rights--even partial-birth--and same-sex marriage. Ditto gun control. To win a GOP primary, Rudy must pipe up about his conservative strengths, namely, fighting bad guys at home and abroad. For no matter how weak his hand might appear, Giuliani still holds two aces: his remarkable transformation of New York City and his post-9/11 resiliency.

Of course, as memories of 9/11 recede, so might Giuliani's stature as "America's mayor." He could always boost his stock with a successful Senate or gubernatorial bid in 2006. Rudy "will be an early frontrunner," says one GOP insider. But "ultimately, I don't think he gets nominated."

* Bill Frist. Unlike Giuliani's and McCain's, Frist's fortunes are partly tied to President Bush. As Senate majority leader, Frist will earn credit--or blame--based on how much of the Bush agenda he shepherds through. If Bush gets tax, Social Security, or tort reform, it will be a feather in Frist's cap. He has a two-year window. Self-term limited, Frist won't seek reelection in 2006.

The Tennessee senator projects an amiable, mild demeanor. But he is no moderate Republican. Certainly in a three-way Giuliani-McCain-Frist race, Frist would stand out as a staunch conservative. He would also be the GOP establishment's choice. Frist may lack the dynamism and perceived toughness of Giuliani and McCain. But post-2004 election, he sounds hardened, especially when talking judges.

* Mitt Romney. He could be the sleeper candidate. Of all the A-listers, Romney is the only governor. And historically, as conservative activist Grover Norquist points out, "governors trump senators." Many governors lack real homeland security credentials--but not Romney. He can tout his work as chief of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. Nor is Romney a Massachusetts Republican in the William Weld mold. He's much more conservative, proposing hefty tax relief and bucking his state's highest court on same-sex marriage. Also, as a GOP insider notes, Romney is good on TV and "richer than Steve Forbes."

Romney's baggage? He's famously fuzzy on abortion. Primary voters won't like that. Then there's his faith. Will evangelical Christians pull the lever for a Mormon? An awkward question, but one Republicans have raised. Perhaps sensing this, Romney met with a gathering of evangelicals last week in Washington, before hosting a reception for Bay State natives serving in the Bush administration.

Now for the B-listers:

* Bill Owens. Colorado's governor once seemed a prime candidate. Conservatives loved him. He had taken on a bevy of Democratic interest groups and emerged triumphant. A September 2002 National Review cover story proclaimed Owens "America's Best Governor." Several months later, he pushed through a landmark school-voucher bill. Since then, however, Owens separated from his wife of almost 30 years. And in the 2004 election, Colorado Republicans took a thrashing, losing both houses of the state legislature. Owens can claim a slew of conservative feats. But he lacks a fundraising base, and his '08 prospects seem to be fading.

* Chuck Hagel. "Hagel has kind of fallen off the map," says a leading GOP strategist. Nebraska's maverick senator certainly strikes a unique pose. Hagel serves up red meat on abortion, taxes, guns, and spending, but also tends toward a dovish view of U.S. foreign policy. In 2002, he criticized Bush's "axis of evil" phrase as "name-calling" and rebuked the "rush to wage war" in Iraq. More recently, Hagel, a Vietnam vet, slammed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld over the war's conduct. Such anti-Bush positions will hardly endear him to rank-and-file Republicans.

* George Allen. As one GOP insider puts it, Virginia's junior senator would be the "conservative's conservative" in the race, à la Phil Gramm in 1996. But whereas Gramm came across as a curmudgeon, Allen, 52, sports youthful good looks and an easygoing charm. He also boasts executive experience. Allen governed Virginia from 1994 to 1998. A reliable pro-life tax-cutter, he sits just to the right of George W. Bush. "Allen runs as Ronald Reagan," predicts Norquist.

* George Pataki. Not only is he the most liberal Republican in the '08 pool, Gov. Pataki also finds himself overshadowed by fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani. Pataki's only saving grace could be his home state. Were he able to deliver New York, that would cripple the Democrats. Otherwise, Pataki doesn't have much going for him.

This list is far from exhaustive. One of the most enticing--but very unlikely--candidates remains Dick Cheney. A few right-wingers have already pondered a quixotic "Draft Cheney" campaign, urging Bush's VP to throw his hat in the ring. Cheney has long disavowed any interest in the presidency. But with ample prodding, and a solid second term for Bush, who knows?

Then, of course, there's Florida governor Jeb Bush, whom the Economist calls "the best candidate by far." Jeb has publicly ruled out a White House bid in 2008. But his paper trail makes him a conservative glamour boy. The genial Jeb is a pro-life, pro-voucher, tax-slashing, budget-trimming Reaganite. Absent a marquee '08er, Republicans will look favorably on Gov. Bush--and wish he had a different last name.

 

Duncan Currie is an editorial assistant at The Weekly Standard.


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008elections; 2008primary; allen; allen2008; electionpresident; frist; georgeallen; gopprimary; guiliani; hagel; mccain; owens; pataki; romney
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To: Cowboy Bob

OK What if anything has Condi said about the Abortion Issue. Also cite sources.


21 posted on 01/27/2005 7:00:06 PM PST by zzen01
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To: Dog Gone
he needs to bolster his personality though.....alot of this is a personality pageant too and the meek and mild need not apply......
22 posted on 01/27/2005 7:00:10 PM PST by NorCalRepub
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To: RWR8189

Giuliani President, Jeb Bush Vice President. That ticket is unbeatable IMO.


23 posted on 01/27/2005 7:00:50 PM PST by My GOP
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To: RWR8189

If that's the list, we're in for a world of hurt.


24 posted on 01/27/2005 7:00:58 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ...... The War on Terrorism is the ultimate 'faith-based' initiative.)
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To: Cowboy Bob

True, but I don't believe that's problematic in this day and age. If Elizabeth I could handle it, I say Condi can.


25 posted on 01/27/2005 7:01:57 PM PST by Juana la Loca
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To: zzen01

that may or not may be true, certainly not one that advocated partial birth but alot depends also on their other strengths like Guilliani and who the frigging Dem's throw out........I know FR is mostly conservative but the country is actually more center right on many things


26 posted on 01/27/2005 7:03:05 PM PST by NorCalRepub
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To: zzen01
OK What if anything has Condi said about the Abortion Issue. Also cite sources.

????? Who said anything about abortion? I just commented that its very unusual for an unmarried person to run for high office.

27 posted on 01/27/2005 7:03:21 PM PST by Cowboy Bob (Fraud is the lifeblood of the Democratic Party)
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: RWR8189

Rummy/Rice. What a combo that would be. At least we'd have fun with the media.


29 posted on 01/27/2005 7:04:57 PM PST by Indy Pendance
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To: RWR8189; Mudboy Slim

My money is on George Allen right now!


30 posted on 01/27/2005 7:05:10 PM PST by PhiKapMom (AOII Mom -- Increase Republicans in Congress in 2006!)
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To: zzen01
All I can say is that a "Pro-Choice" GOP will NOT get the Nomination.

I dunno - it's not called the Stupid Party w/o a reason. The powers that be might just think they can spin a bort to the ticket.

31 posted on 01/27/2005 7:06:31 PM PST by don-o (Stop Freeploading. Do the right thing and become a Monthly Donor.)
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To: Juana la Loca
True, but I don't believe that's problematic in this day and age. If Elizabeth I could handle it, I say Condi can.

Elizabeth who - Dole? She is married, though childless. But if she were to run for President, I think her husband would be the liability...

32 posted on 01/27/2005 7:06:36 PM PST by Cowboy Bob (Fraud is the lifeblood of the Democratic Party)
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To: PhiKapMom

I'd like to see Allen/Giuliani.


33 posted on 01/27/2005 7:07:12 PM PST by TheBigB (Existential void where prohibited.)
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To: Cowboy Bob

I think he meant Queen elizabeth the 1st, the "Virgin Queen"


34 posted on 01/27/2005 7:08:34 PM PST by RepublicanReptile ('Open your mind, close the Border")
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To: zzen01
OK What if anything has Condi said about the Abortion Issue. Also cite sources.

I can't cite sources, but if you spend some time on google or yahoo, you can see what she says directly.

I do remember her making a few comments about it, she's got the reverse liberal position on abortion. I.E. she supports abortion but thinks Roe vs Wade should be overturned, and the states should decide it. Its the opposite or reverse view of the liberal "its morally wrong, but its a womans right".

In effect, policy wise, I guess it wouldn't make a difference, but I wouldn't want somone who thinks abortion is okay as president, even if would make it possible to ban abortion.

35 posted on 01/27/2005 7:08:38 PM PST by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: RWR8189

George Allen is my early choice!


36 posted on 01/27/2005 7:10:03 PM PST by GWB00
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To: Cowboy Bob
Queen Elizabeth I.

History seems to have favored her. She has an era named after her.

37 posted on 01/27/2005 7:10:26 PM PST by Miss Marple
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To: Darkwolf377

Similar with me.

The Colo Governor might be a potential, but none of the others on the list seem that viable. Yeh, they have name recognition, but what about their policies and programs?

The Pub winner will go up, quite probably, against Hillary; and none of the listed names seem a good challenge to her.


38 posted on 01/27/2005 7:10:33 PM PST by TomGuy (America: Best friend or worst enemy. Choose wisely.)
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To: MisterRepublican
The only ones I would even consider are George Allen and Jeb Bush. If I would want someone who agrees with murdering babies in the womb, I would vote Democrat.

Is George Allen a solid full pro-lifer? Someone told me he said he supports abortion in the first week or month of a pregnancy or something.

Can you fill me in?

39 posted on 01/27/2005 7:10:43 PM PST by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: NormsRevenge

and we are going to be up against a ticket with a woman at the top and a Hispanic VP. but still, most freepers still believe we can toss out a ticket of two white guys, as long as they are pro-life, and win easily against Hillary. no way.


40 posted on 01/27/2005 7:10:48 PM PST by oceanview
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