Posted on 01/26/2005 7:01:01 AM PST by AJFavish
[Begin reading at the arrow near the bottom of the story. --ajf]
Los Angeles Daily News
Immigration boom cooling
Foreign-born, now 27%, to increase to 29.8% of state population by 2030
By Harrison Sheppard and Jennifer Radcliffe Staff Writers
Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - SACRAMENTO - Foreign immigration to California will slow over the next 25 years even as the second generation of immigrants continues to increase in size and to make a stronger contribution to the work force, according to a University of Southern California study released Tuesday.
The study, "California Demographic Futures," projects that the children and grandchildren of California's current new immigrants will improve in education level, voter participation and health-care coverage.
These second- and third-generation Californians will also make up a larger share of the state's population, with growth in their numbers outpacing the increase in new immigrants. That will allow them to replace the aging baby boomers as key producers in the workplace.
Dowell Myers, a co-author of the study conducted in USC's School of Policy, Planning and Development, said there are misperceptions about California's future based on past data when the state's immigrant population was growing rapidly.
"That now has leveled off somewhat. The immigrant presence is moderating. It's still a high percentage, but not escalating as much as before," Myers said.
"Instead, the previous immigrants are now aging in place. They're settling in. They're setting down deep roots. They're climbing the economic ladder."
The study projected that the political influence of the Latino population will continue to grow faster than the growth in Latinos' actual numbers. As new immigrants become assimilated and gain U.S. citizenship, their political clout grows, and their descendants vote at higher rates.
Together, the decreased immigration and improved status of the second generation will reduce the burden on the government safety net, while contributing to a more sophisticated work force.
Groups that support more restrictive immigration policies argue that immigrants pose security risks in the wake of 9-11 and create a burden on the economy and the environment.
John Keeley, communications director for the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies, said California's legislative policies - such as providing in-state tuition and, at one time, driver's licenses for illegal immigrants - have tended to attract immigration, illegal as well as legal.
As long as those policies continue, "I don't think you can plausibly suggest that there's going to be some significant abatement in the volume of illegal immigration to that state," Keeley said.
He said the center is a think tank that favors a "pro-immigrant, low-immigration" vision of restricting the level of immigration to this country, but treating well those who have been admitted.
Keeley said the typical immigrant to this country is a male in his middle or late 20s with a low level of education. He has to get to work immediately and cannot go back to school. He added that children often repeat the educational attainment of their parents.
Among the USC study's findings:
-The share of foreign-born in the state's population grew from 15 percent to 27 percent in the last 25 years, but will only grow to almost 30 percent - 29.8 percent - by 2030.
-The second generation grew from 12 percent of the state population in 1980 to 17 percent currently and will be almost 21 percent in 2030.
-The second generation is expected to account for the majority of growth in the state's work force by 2030. In the last 25 years, new immigrants made up about two-thirds of the work-force growth, but in the next 25 years they will provide only one-third of the growth. Instead, the second generation will constitute 59 percent of the growth.
"This report should remind us how important it is to continue to support public education," said Jose Huizar, president of the Los Angeles Unified School District board.
Immigrants, their children and grandchildren "are going to be the backbone of our economy in the future," he said.
"If the Los Angeles Unified School District isn't up to the challenge, it will set up immigrants for a cycle of failure. What we don't want to do is create a permanent underclass of immigrants. We want to ensure that people have social mobility." The alternative, he said, is "to create permanent poverty."
To try to close the achievement gaps among various ethnic groups, LAUSD leaders are implementing a range of initiatives from full-day kindergarten to small-learning communities at high schools. They're also pushing to make lessons more culturally relevant to immigrant students.
=======> In 2003-04, about 305,000 LAUSD students were native Spanish speakers, about 94 percent of the district's students learning English as a second language.
School district officials said they're already noticing academic gains among Latino students, who make up about 75 percent of the district's 747,000 students.
Latinos showed the largest improvement on the latest Academic Performance Index, the state's benchmark indicator - jumping 15 points from 593 to 608. The score, however, still remains below the district's 634 average.
Nearly 200,000 students dropped out of LAUSD high schools in 2002-03, including 131,295 Latino students, according to the state Department of Education. Their four-year high school dropout rate of 36 percent is nearly double that of Asian and non-Latino white students.
Latino students in the district are among the lowest scorers on the California High School Exit Exam. Only 53 percent of Latino students passed the math portion, and 57 percent passed the language portion. Of the white non-Latino students in the district, 85 percent passed the math portion and 88 percent the language portion.
The number of Latino students in LAUSD has grown by about 120,000 in the last decade - accounting for the district's entire population growth, according to the Department of Education.
Harrison Sheppard reported from the Sacramento Bureau; Jennifer Radcliffe reported from Los Angeles.
Harrison Sheppard, (916) 446-6723 harrison.sheppard@dailynews.com
I completely agree. I must say, I know some people in there, and they are actually good people, but the whole thing is rotten IMO.
this article is deceptive in that the slowing they describe is based on percentages. The raw numbers will continue to increase. For each illegal that settles in, there are numerous friends and relatives that can potentially come to live with him/her. That's why Mexico's foreign relations secretary Santiago Creel is asking for more Mexican visas, even though millions are issued every year.
Now it's on our railroad tracks.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1329104/posts
Mexico's population is exploding and growing now faster than ever, the leaders of that country can't or won't support them so their policy is to send them northward.
My hunch is these writers know illegal immigration isn't going to stop and are making false projections in an attempt to squelch any new restrictive laws that we desperately need.
Jan 05. Dennis Miller needling Art Torrez
“Art, didn’t I hear a measure in the California State Legislature to not let naturalized citizens run for the presidency but in fact let illegal aliens run for the presidency??”
These so called statistics don't cover these folks:
Norte O Gangs Moving North
Pioneer Press- Ft. Jones, Ca. | Jan. 26, 2005 | Barry R. Clausen
Posted on 01/26/2005 12:33:44 PM PST by JustAnotherSavage
Norte o Gangs Moving North
By Barry R. Clausen
January 2005
During the last several years there have been a large volume of raids on Mexican Mafia marijuana gardens throughout our country. Information is now available on who these Mafia gang families are. In Northern California “Norte o” gangs are invading many cities and rural communities. ---snip
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1329160/posts
Makes me recall Bill Cosby's statement of something like, "There's a reason they're called 'Asians', they make all A's in school."
Okay, I messed his quote up. Bill said, "Do you know why they are called Asians? Because they always get A's.".
I hadn't heard that one----great!
Bush to Call for Crackdown on Illegals
Kinda funny how it's a quiet thread...hmmmm.
What's so quiet about it, there's a 142 posts and counting...
It's quiet because the immigration mongerers aren't there. No news is good news, right?
Well whoever the "immigration mongerers" are then ping them to the thread. Looks to me as if there's a nice debate going on and if I had posted to it I'd agree with those who are saying what's being proposed is nothing compared to what we need to get the job done properly.
Exactly.
New Bill introduced today:
And the more detail we hear about Bush's proposal the worse it sounds. I hope Sensenbrenner isn't considering a cave-in to any massive amnesty.
bttt
250 new enforcement officers nationwide is good news? An average of five per state? If the police department of any major city, ie. NY, LA, Seattle, Dallas, F.W., were being over-run with looters (looters and illegals are essentially legally the same) by the same margin as the Border Patrol, you can bet your sweet bippy, by E.O., more than 5 guardsmen would be on those streets today.
This is nothing but an attempt to appease famine with crumbs (no offense meant to the new officers who'll be swamped along with the rest of 'em).
Here is a view of the border from a freeper who recently went and looked for himself:
I spent today at the border, 70 miles east of San Diego. There's a private ranch with one mile of border frontage which is being trampled by aliens (the same as the other 2000 miles of Mexican border.) I was there for the AM Border Patrol change of shift, when many of the illegals cross. During that well-known hour, there is ZERO coverage along the border.
Three of us volunteers captured 40 (FORTY) of them in the past day (Jan 21 to 22, 2005) on this one mile wide property. The volunteers only come once in a while to help the rancher. The rest of the time, his ranch is a wide open path into the USA, not much different from any other mile of border. If they make it 1-2 miles inland, there are lots of houses/shacks/trailers which are "pick up sites." There are only a few Border Patrolmen to cover each 20 mile sector of the actual border, which is only a token effort, just minor window dressing, to show the sheeple that "Uncle Sam is on the job." They basically don't catch anybody, maybe 2% of the crossers by actual truthful and frank (not official PR) Border Patrolmen's estimates. Anyone they catch in this sector is by pure blind luck, or they are the ones which private citizens stop, hold and call in, and they pick up and count as captures. This 2% true catch rate is meaningless, since the illegals just get taken to the border, and cross again tomorrow or the day after, with a fresh 98% chance of success. Pretty pitiful, huh?
One of the 7 we got this morning was a 14 year old girl who speaks perfect English. I asked her where she learned to speak it so well, and she named the public middle school in LA where she has gone for the last 6 years. Your California taxes at work. She was visiting her granny in Mexico for Christmas, and was just coming "home" to LA. She'll make it back across tomorrow. I said you can write a paper for school: "What I did on my Christmas vacation." The seven were only wearing sneakers and jeans and light jackets and t-shirts, with about one liter of water each, carried by hand. They were not preparing for some long march into the interior, but just a 1-2 mile hike to a pre-arranged pickup.
I was able to chat with them in Spanish for the hour or so until the BP picked them up. They said that they did not have to pay until they were delivered in LA. Relatives in LA have the money. The cost is now down to only $500 a head, from $1500 a few years ago. Going to a "pay on delivery only" system also shows that the "market" for border crossing is looser than ever. Formerly, illegals had to pay coyotes up front, and lost their money if caught. Now, they don't pay until and unless they make it. This shows that the "coyotes" must lower their prices and give better terms to attract business from their many customers. The "market" at work! It's a great time to be an illegal alien! Prices are down, pay on delivery in LA is standard, results are guaranteed! If not today (2% chance of capture) then tomorrow, (98% chance of success).
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