Analysis: U.S. losing ground in Iraq war ( Knight Ridder newspapers say...)

Seattle Times ^ | Sunday, January 23, 2005 | Tom Lasseter and Jonathan S. Landay

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

BAGHDAD, Iraq — The United States is steadily losing ground to the Iraqi insurgency, according to every key military yardstick.

A Knight Ridder analysis of U.S. government statistics shows that through all the major turning points that raised hopes of peace in Iraq, including the arrest of Saddam Hussein and the handover of political sovereignty at the end of June, the insurgency, led mainly by Sunni Muslims, has become deadlier and more effective.

The analysis suggests that unless something dramatic changes, such as a newfound will by Iraqis to reject the insurgency or a large escalation of U.S. troop strength, the United States won't win the war.

It's axiomatic among military thinkers that insurgencies are especially hard to defeat because the insurgents' goal isn't to win in a conventional sense but merely to survive until the will of the occupying power is sapped. Recent polls already suggest an erosion of support among Americans for the war.

The unfavorable trends of the war are clear:

• U.S. military fatalities from hostile acts have risen from an average of about 17 per month just after President Bush declared an end to major combat operations on May 1, 2003, to an average of 82 per month.

• The average number of U.S. soldiers wounded by hostile acts per month has spiraled from 142 to 808 during the same period. Iraqi civilians have suffered even more deaths and injuries, although reliable statistics aren't available.

• Attacks on the U.S.-led coalition since November 2003, when statistics were first available, have risen from 735 a month to 2,400 in October. Air Force Brig. Gen. Erv Lessel, the multinational forces' deputy operations director, told Knight Ridder on Friday that attacks were currently running at 75 a day, about 2,300 a month, well below a spike in November during the assault on Fallujah, but nearly as high as October's total.

• The average number of mass-casualty bombings has grown from zero in the first four months of the American occupation to an average of 13 per month.

• Electricity production has been below pre-war levels since October, largely because of sabotage by insurgents, with just 6.7 hours of power daily in Baghdad in early January, according to the State Department.

• Iraq is pumping about 500,000 barrels of oil a day fewer than its pre-war peak of 2.5 million barrels per day as a result of attacks, according to the State Department.

"All the trend lines we can identify are all in the wrong direction," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, a Washington policy-research organization. "We are not winning, and the security-trend lines could almost lead you to believe that we are losing."

The combat numbers are based mainly on Defense Department releases compiled by O'Hanlon in an Iraq Index. Despite the numbers, Lessel, the Air Force general, said that since the U.S. assault on the former rebel stronghold of Fallujah in November, "we have been making a lot of progress" against the insurgency.

He said the number of attacks, bombings and kidnappings is down from November; experienced insurgent leaders are being arrested or killed; U.S. and Iraqi forces remain on the offensive; and more Iraqis have been providing intelligence on insurgents.

Other indications that "things are turning around" include surveys that show 80 percent of Iraqis wanting to vote in next Sunday's national-assembly elections and more than 90 percent opposing violence as a solution to the crisis. In addition, the recruitment and training of Iraqi security forces are being stepped up, Lessel said.

"I don't want to paint too rosy a picture. We still have an insurgency that has a lot of capabilities," he said. "When you ask is the insurgency growing, you have to ask is it growing in terms of popular support, and I don't see that happening."

There are some additional bright spots:

• In the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad and the southern town of Najaf, the scene of intense fighting last year with Shiite Muslim rebels, millions of dollars are pouring into reconstruction efforts. Both places are now relatively peaceful.

• Some 14 million Iraqis, mostly Shiite, are registered to vote in next Sunday's elections for an interim 275-seat National Assembly. They'll choose among 111 slates comprising 7,785 candidates.

• Roughly 1,500 U.S.-funded reconstruction projects are employing more than 100,000 Iraqis, and the insurgents' campaign of attacks and threats has failed to deter sign-ups for Iraq's new security forces.

These developments, however, have had little impact on the broader trends that have moved against the United States through all the spikes and lulls in violence.

Most worrisome: the insurgency is getting larger.

At the close of 2003, U.S. commanders put the number of insurgents at 5,000. Earlier this month, Gen. Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani, the director of the Iraqi intelligence service, said there are 200,000 insurgents, including at least 40,000 hard-core fighters. The rest, he said, are part-time fighters and supporters who provide food, shelter, funds and intelligence.

"Many Iraqis respect these gunmen because they are fighting the invaders," said Nabil Mohammed, a Baghdad University political-science professor.

The insurgents "are getting smarter all the time. We've seen a lot of changes in their tactics that say, one, they're getting help from outside, and two, they're learning," said Sgt. 1st Class Glenn Aldrich, 35, of Houston, a 16-year Army veteran who has been doing foot patrols in a Baghdad neighborhood.

The resistance has grown despite suffering huge casualties to overwhelming U.S. firepower, although exact statistics aren't available.

Insurgent attacks have shifted from small groups of men shooting at tanks with AK-47s to powerful car bombs and roadside explosives, and well-planned assaults, kidnappings and assassinations.

American soldiers have subdued Sunni hotbeds including Fallujah and Samarra. Yet these military victories have failed to achieve the broader goal of weakening the resistance.

Some Iraqis say these aggressive U.S. military moves are counterproductive because mass destruction and the killing of Iraqis, such as what happened in the two battles for Fallujah, create more recruits for the insurgency.

"The insurgency will grow larger," said Ghazi Bada al-Faisal, an employee of the Iraqi Ministry of Industry and a Fallujah resident. "The child whose brother and father were killed in the fighting will now seek revenge."

Some defense analysts are calling for a new strategy and more troops.

"We can only control the ground we stand on. We leave, and it falls apart," said Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst at the Washington Center for Near East Policy.

White proposes sending 20,000 more troops, but the Bush administration hopes to replace U.S. troops with well-trained Iraqis.

In late 2003, Iraqi recruits, many of them young and looking for a paycheck, were pushed through a week or so of training, given guns and uniforms and then declared graduated.

Bush administration officials say the program to train and equip new Iraqi security forces of more than 272,000 members is making progress. Yet several independent experts said it would take at least two years before there are any meaningful numbers of Iraqi forces with counterinsurgency skills and as many as five years before the U.S. goal is attained.

"I think you can achieve success, but it will take a while and, unfortunately, there will be a lot more blood," said Peter Khalil, who was a senior security adviser to the U.S.-led occupation authority in Iraq.

Of course, success isn't assured and the United States will be forced to deal with an elected Iraqi government that may set limits on what U.S. troops can do — and could even ask them to leave.

Hopes that the election might lead to less violence have recently given way to more dire warnings, with expectations that Sunni insurgents who feel disenfranchised in the new Iraq will turn their guns on the elected government.

"I think that we will enter a different, but still-dangerous period in the post-election time frame," Brig. Gen. Carter Ham, the commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, said last week.

[DoughtyOne]

Hmmmm, elections in one week and we're losing ground. These will be the second major national elections in the region within the last three months. In both instances they were either the first elections ever, or the first in a long long time.

Loosing ground? Tell that to the free citizens of Afghanistan. Tell that to the free citizens of Iraq.

Screw Knightridder. They couldn't get the story right if their asses were on fire.

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

Did anyone notice the similarity of the MSM and the insurgents ?

Both put out the same spin, that is scairy. Both seem to want the same thing. F... them! I suggest the MSM just give us a fashion critique on the headgear of the "terrorists"...that's the level of reporting they are doing.

[Valin]

"We can only control the ground we stand on. We leave, and it falls apart," said Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst at the Washington Center for Near East Policy.

Blah blah quagmire blah blah losing blah not worth the cost blah blah blah......blah.

Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst

One more talking head in love with the sound of his own voice.

[vbmoneyspender]

Strategypage.com had a discussion on Iraq a few days ago and cited statistics showing that a citizen of South Africa or Columbia has more of a chance of dying a violent death than does a citizen of Iraq. See Link

Here are some more statistics on the historically low casualty rates we have been suffering See Link

Bottom line: Don't believe the media traitors.

[quantim]

This terrorist insurgency in Iraq is doomed to fail and will be crushed for the following reasons:

Also, when you blow yourself up, Darwin cheers.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The Media is getting concerned that things are going too well I think:

U.S. Envoy Acknowledges Iraq Election Woes ( MSM Negative piece )

[Valin]

Weather they are true or not is irrelavant.

This is going too sound real cols hearted but as wars go this one is bloodless.
Also these stats only give one side, how many bad guys were killed in the same time period?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See this:

************************************************

Unholy Alliance
by David Horowitz
Regnery Publishing, Inc.; ISBN: 089526076X
Hardcover - 256 pages (September 2004)

In this tour de force on the most important issue of our time, David Horowitz, confronts the paradox of how so many Americans, including the leadership of the Democratic Party, could turn against the War on Terror. He finds an answer in a political Left that shares a view of America as the “Great Satan” with America’s radical Islamic enemies. This Left, which once made common cause with Communists, has now joined forces with radical Islam in attacking America’s defenses at home and its policies abroad. From their positions of influence in the university and media culture, leftists have defined America as the “root cause” of the attacks against it. In a remarkable exploration of the “Mind of the Left,” Horowitz traces the evolution of American radicalism from its Communist past to its “anti-war” present. He then shows how this Left was able to turn the Democratic Party presidential campaign around and reshape its views on the War on Terror.

Horowitz’s Unholy Alliance, writes John Haynes, the noted historian of American Communism, “is an insightful, brilliant examination of the mental world of the radical left. Horowitz shows how today’s radicals, unwilling to reflect on the internal flaws that destroyed Marxism-Leninism from within, have embraced an all-consuming nihilism in its place. This has led them to a hatred of American institutions and a solidarity with Islamic terrorists that makes the radical left more properly regarded as dangerous than loony.”

Unholy Alliance is an eye-opening book that should unsettle conventional assumptions and reveals why intellectuals and political leaders who applaud Michael Moore are no laughing matter. As Harvey Klehr, author of Venona: Decoding Soviet Espionage in America, writes, “The world Communist movement may be moribund, but its habits of mind and ideological fantasies have not disappeared. This is a fascinating and depressing account.”

Price: $19.01 - Click here to order:

[SandRat]

Yeah for them. They're digfing up these pieces of crap because they're going to lose and they want us to panic and call for the Pres to run and hide like they did in Nam. NEVER AGAIN!!!!

[Darkwolf377]

The truth is never irrlelvent. Whether or not there are more of fewer casualties isn't the end-all of the topic. There are a lot of facts reported in this article and I for one like to know all the facts about the situation our fellow Americans are facing.

[rwfromkansas]

There are lot of good things, but lots of bad things going on. I won't hold my head in the sand about the latter.

I don't think the negative nannies are right that we will fail.

However, this is a definite worry of mine:

"Hopes that the election might lead to less violence have recently given way to more dire warnings, with expectations that Sunni insurgents who feel disenfranchised in the new Iraq will turn their guns on the elected government."

However, it is my hope and expecation that once we leave, the terrorists will stop and respect the new govt., at least after new elections. But, that may not happen.

[HardStarboard]

>>>Nobody's going to bother to try force-feeding them "Democracy" again, if they blow this one.<<<

Unfortunately your statements cuts both ways...."if we blow this one", nobody's going to bother the Islamofacists flooding to Europe and the US to destroy "Democracy" and extablish a state governed by Sharia law.

'cept me and my Beretta and you and what ever you have in the bedside table drawer.

[vbmoneyspender]

That article reports statistics not facts. You might consult Mark Twain on the difference.

[Billthedrill]

You make a good point - this is, in fact, the way that a left-wing think tank leverages its clout through a sympathetic medium by being quoted and only barely being identified.

It hasn't really been that difficult to predict two things that have come to pass. First, that a drumbeat of pessimism and doom has reached a climax just prior to the elections, and second, that the intensity and violence of the terror campaign has done so on precisely the same beat. They are, in fact, two fingers belonging to the very same hand.

It isn't hard to see why Brookings, et al, are acting this way - they are dedicated believers in multilateralism, the UN, Kyoto, etc, etc - a U.S. success in Iraq is profoundly threatening to this point of view and its adherents, true believers all, would rather see the U.S. and Iraq stuck in a bloody debacle than succeed because that way people will turn back to the multilateral light. More bluntly, they want an agonizing failure because it advances their worldview. In my opinion this is a fair working definition of "evil" but they've been at it a very long time.

[Valin]

Ok say for the sake of argument they a true, what do they mean to you? As I said this battle in Iraq has been pretty much bloodless, and they only show one side, not how many terrorists have been killed at the same time. June 6 1944 America was losing soldiers at the rate of 1,000 an hour. If that was the only stat you saw what would you say?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Another book ( See #20):

The Islamic Paradox: Shiite Clerics, Sunni Fundamentalists, and the Coming of Arab Democracy
by REUEL MARC GERECHT

************************************************

Editorial Reviews

About the Author
Reuel Marc Gerecht is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, and a correspondent for The Atlantic

Product Description:
Since the Iranian revolution, Americans have been aware of Islamic extremism. They should have been worried about Islamic fundamentalism much earlier. Decades before Ayatollah Khomeini announced his holy war against the United States, Muslim militants had been increasing their numbers and honing their critique of the West, especially America, and its nefarious cultural and political influence throughout the Islamic world. Under the radar screen of most academics, diplomats, and spies, bin Ladenism was taking shape.

Since 9/11, we have seen more clearly what we did not see before. A consensus has developed in Washington that something is terribly awry in the Muslim Middle East. The Bush administration, echoed by many influential Democrats, believes that the repressive politics of the region need to open to dissenting voices—the nexus between autocracy and Islamic extremism must be broken. Most hope gradual political reform will abate the anti-Americanism that is commonplace throughout the region. Moderate Muslims need to be nourished so they may triumph over the militants and holy warriors. But moderate Muslims are not likely the solution to bin Ladenism. Just the opposite: Those who have hated the United States most—Shiite clerics and Sunni fundamentalists—hold the keys to spreading democracy among the faithful. They, not the much-admired Muslim secularists, will probably liberate the Muslim Middle East from its age-old reflexive hostility to the West. Paradoxically, those who in their! souls have felt the clash of civilizations most painfully will be our salvation from future 9/11s.

[Darkwolf377]

It means a lot to me, and you're not getting the point so let's just leave it there.

[Darkwolf377]

I'm pretty sick of people dropping that "lies, damned lies and statistics" line when it's convenient. Simply brushing aside inconvenient stats for our side, when we'd be gleefully repeating stats that are bad for the other side, isn't honest.

If you're not interested in getting to the bottom of what's in the article, fine, that's your right, but I am interested in the issues discussed in this piece. I am not afraid of the facts.

[vbmoneyspender]

Just to make you even more sick those statistics they are citing are lies and the people who believe them are deluding themselves.

[oyez]

According to the Major media this is the week of the New Tet Offensive and Deim Ben Phu. They are dreaming if the old days, thinking they are doing it again. Their are getting set to report the evacuation of the US embassy by helicopters,