Posted on 01/14/2005 12:27:29 AM PST by nickcarraway
WEBB HUMBLE
It appears that the race for DNC chairman may be winnowing down to two or three candidates, with a number of elected officials urging former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb to press his candidacy harder. Webb's supporters have let it be known that everyone from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to Govs. Bill Richardson and Mark Warner has been speaking with Webb about the DNC election, and promising their support over Howard Dean and New Democrat Simon Rosenberg.
Dean is thought by some DNC insiders to have an inside track for the chairmanship, though Rosenberg has been gaining a lot of support from the moderate wing. Joe Trippi, formerly a top Dean strategist, threw his support behind Rosenberg recently.
Webb, though, has been steadily getting good press, and appears to be lining up national backing. Almost every national Democrat who has presidential aspirations in 2008 appears to have at least reached out to Webb in a public way.
Someone whose campaign for DNC chair appears to be foundering, Donnie Fowler has been writing an occasional blog about his campaign. Instead of reaching out to the moderate and conservative wing of the party, he has been playing to the Michael Moore wing. One snippet of his blog is all you need to get a sense of where the 37-year-old Donnie is coming from:
"To begin with, you should know that a 37 year old chair is not unprecedented. Ken Mehlman, the new Republican national chair is 38. And don't forget about Lee 'Willie Horton' Atwater who served Bush the First. He was 37 when he put on the brown shirt in 1989…."
In view of such sophistication, it isn't a surprise that some folks are hoping current party chair Terry McAuliffe will stay on for a few more months.
THE CASEY AGAINST SANTORUM
Senate Democrats are already getting nervous about the 2006 election cycle, and new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer appears to be doing all he can to woo candidates, given the come-hither, slightly scary look he presents on the DSCC website.
Already the DSCC is scrambling for backup candidates in Maryland and West Virginia, should Sens. Paul Sarbanes and Bobby Byrd announce retirement plans. As for other incumbents, Republicans have already targeted Minnesota's Sen. Mark Dayton. Dayton has been experiencing fundraising problems, and recently shook up his campaign structure, bringing in Bob Shrum and outside professional fundraisers to right his listing ship.
But doubts about their own side of the aisle haven't kept minority leader Harry Reid and Schumer from dreaming big. With a likely open seat in Tennessee (the expected retirement of self-term-limited Sen. Bill Frist) and potentially competitive races in Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, Republicans may have to defend more of the national map next time out than they anticipated.
And Schumer isn't making things easy for them. Earlier this week, polling data purportedly paid for by the DSCC began popping up on various Democratic-leaning websites. It showed that the current Pennsylvania state treasurer, Bob Casey, Jr., led Sen. Rick Santorum 52 to 38 in a poll of likely voters. The leaking of the polling data came coincidentally less than a week after both Schumer and Reid had begun courting Casey to run against Santorum. Casey, a pro-life Democrat, and son of the legendary Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey, is said by associates in Pennsylvania to have warmed to the idea, but only if Schumer and Reid could assure him that the Democratic primary field would be cleared for him.
"He asked about it and Schumer guaranteed him a clear field," says a political consultant with ties to the DSCC. "That polling data, wherever it came from, is probably the first step toward getting Casey in line, and running off a few folks with eyes on running against Santorum"
Santorum was already girding for a bruising re-election battle, having been targeted by Democrats as Enemy No.1 in this election cycle, and Casey would make the campaign a tough one. "He's right on the issues that Catholics in Pennsylvania vote on, and moderate enough to get strong Democratic support," says the consultant. "He scares the hell out of Santorum's people."
Casey will crush Santorum - taking both cities and central Pa. The Caseys are local Kennedys to the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area. Santorum didn't help himself by knifing Toomey in the back during last year's GOP primaries in order to kiss up to the Spectre (int. misspelled) RINO block.
Someone on kos linked to this blog that's already started up.
www.stopcasey.blogspot.com
Furthermore, Pat Casey ran for Congress in 2000 and lost in a very good year for the dems in PA........I believe he ran in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, so not quite the stuff of getting elected...eh? I realize that you want in some weird way to see Santorum defeated (which is odd considering Bush gave Specter alot more help than Santorum did) but it aint gonna happen.
That is why Casey is conditioning a run on the party making sure he is unopposed in the Dimwit primaries. He can win the general election if he gets past the primaries without pro-abort opposition. As much as the Dimwits hate pro-lifers, they'd love to pick up another Senate seat. There aren't any other viable candidates that can carry the Commonwealth for the Dimwits.
And if he does, which he won't, I think you overestimate his support in the general. The key to winning as a Democrat in Penn (since the mid nineties) is to get the inner cities to vote heavily for you (which Casey won't be able to as he is not very well connected in that regard, see the primary in 2002) and to get moderate republican women in the suburbs to vote for you. Since, as odd as this is, Casey talks more about the life issue than Santorum, I doubt moderate republican women who only vote dem for the abortion issue would vote for Casey. Plus if Casey did get the nod, then Specter's machine would come out in full force for Santorum. Seriously, Casey is wildly overestimated! I like him too, but let's face facts.
Also the idea that social conservatives and rural conservatives would come out and vote for Dems is also not accurate. Bob's brother Pat ran in 2000 in a very socially conservative/rural area, and despite being from this "golden" family, despite his strong pro life stance and a ton of money from the party, he lost to a rather lackluster underfunded Republican, meanwhile Gore carried the state!
Believe me, he won't get the dem nod.
Hey Donnie - tell yr. ol' man h9k sez h3llO!
A possible Casey vs. Santorum is brewing.
[Dimwits hate pro-lifers, they'd love to pick up another Senate seat.]
The RATS would much rather lose elections than allow pro-lifers gain influence in the party. In 2000, the RATS had a chance to gain 2 more Senate seats by suppporting pro-life RATS. However they gave little support to the pro-life RATS challenging Lincoln Chafee and Rick Santorum.
Groups like Emily's List and NARAL control the purse strings to a large extent.
Casey is no multi-millionaire (i.e., Dayton, Corzine, Cantwell the last time around, not now) who can self-fund and with many national races to fund, I doubt Schumer can afford to put the lion's share of DSSC money behind Casey.
And can you imagine what the "heart and soul" of the Democratic Party, i.e., Moveon, would say about a vehemently pro-life candidate? I doubt Casey could expect the "small checks" of the Moveon type Democrat either.
The key is Fast Eddie Rendell (also a former DNC chair). He can deliver Philly for Casey if he wants to do so. I suspect that Schumer is tied into the same gambling interests as Gov. Rendell...they can be very persuasive, i.e. make Rendell an offer he can't refuse.
"Casey will crush Santorum - taking both cities and central Pa."
The Scranton/WB congressional district was held by a Repub for 26 years (Joe McDade) and had since spread to the more conservative rural counties. Even so Pat lost by under 500 votes (+/-). They have since switched districts to give the Dems a shot someday. (Not in 2006)
Ron Klink's old man was not governor of the state. Ain't quite the same.
Two words, folks, "Barbara Hafer." Hafer has been focused like a laser beam on challenging Santorum ever since she switched effortlessly from sore-loser RINO to 'Rat. No way in hell is this pro-aborter going to get out of the way for the son of the man who thumped her in the 1990 Governor's race. Not to say Casey has no chance of winning the primary, but Hafer being the sore loser that she always is, if Casey prevailed, he'd be so badly bloodied, it would be tough for him to recover for the general. Of course, a big problem for Santorum, as pointed out, was a lot of residual anger for supporting the soon-to-be-late Sen. Specter, and he might have many sitting out the election as a result (enough to tip the balance in a close race). In any event, it's better for us for the Casey-Hafer primary showdown to occur. Let's not forget, too, about the potential marquee PA Gubernatorial election next year (another big question, which race will suck the air out of the other one ?).
"Let's not forget, too, about the potential marquee PA Gubernatorial election next year (another big question, which race will suck the air out of the other one ?)."
He might, if Schumer clears the field for him...
Has Toomey even voiced any interest in running for Governor ? I know my jaw dropped when I saw Bill Scranton, III, voiced an interest. He served as Dick Thornburgh's Lieutenant Governor and ran a disastrous campaign that was his to lose way back in '86 (of course, having Carville as Bob Casey, Sr's campaign manager helped sack Scranton). After 20 years out of the public eye, I would think he'd be a dreadful candidate. I know little about State Sen. Jeff Piccola or the two other lesser-known candidates, all of whom I'd presume would be at a disadvantage against Fast Eddie. How Conservative is Lynn Swann ? I think he'd be a very intriguing candidate. Imagine come January 2007 that both Ohio and Pennsylvania have 2 African-American Republican Governors ! :-)
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