Posted on 01/10/2005 8:43:06 AM PST by areafiftyone
Those who would stick their heads in the sand and maintain that Sen. Hillary Clinton could never be elected president are in for a rude shock, according to the latest data from the Fox News survey.
In a poll taken last month, Americans said they felt the New York Democrat was “qualified to be president of the United States” by 59-34 percent. Clinton showed strength among all traditional Democratic voters, winning the approval of Sen. John Kerry supporters by 80-13, blacks by 80-8, all women by 64-29 and unmarried women by 69-24 and people under 30 by 73-20.
But she also did well among more traditionally Republican constituencies. Men said she was qualified by 53-40. Southerners agreed by 55-36, as did those earning more than $75,000 per year, who felt she was qualified by 58-39. While 80 percent of liberals felt she was qualified, so did 59 percent of moderates and 43 percent of self-described conservatives. Incredibly, so did 33 percent of Republicans and 37 percent of Bush voters.
Of course, many of those voters would not actually support Hillary, and the Fox News poll was careful to precede the question by saying, “Regardless of whether you would vote for Hillary Clinton or not, …” the breadth of her acceptability indicates that she has passed the national threshold for political viability.
The Fox News poll tested Hillary against several possible 2008 GOP contenders and found that she ran ahead of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush by 46-35, ahead of New York Gov. George Pataki by 41-35 and ahead of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) by 40-33.
Nor is there any basis for believing the conventional GOP wisdom that a Hillary candidacy would trigger a backlash among men, conservatives and Republicans.
When Fox News matched the former first lady against Jeb Bush in a trial heat, Hillary’s numbers were similar to those former presidential candidate Kerry racked up in a parallel test.
Among men, for example, Hillary defeated Jeb Bush by 44-39 while Kerry broke even, 42-42. While 23 percent of conservatives supported Hillary against the president’s brother, only 21 percent backed Kerry in a similar contest.
Geographically, Hillary beat Southerners Jeb Bush and Frist in the South, beating Bush in the red-state region by 42-41 and Frist by 38-37. And, in the critical Midwest, where most swing states are located, Hillary ran 11 points ahead of Jeb Bush, 10 ahead of Frist and six ahead of Pataki.
The strongest candidate against Hillary is, of course, Rudy Guiliani, whom an earlier Fox News poll showed beating her by almost 10 points. But the former New York City mayor will have a hard time winning the Republican nomination. Can a pro-abortion-rights, pro-affirmative-action, pro-gay-rights, pro-gun-control, pro-immigration moderate win Republican primaries?
Ultimately, the only Republican who may be able to beat Hillary is Bush’s nominee for secretary of state, Condeleezza Rice. Able to appeal to black and female voters without sacrificing support among whites and men, Condi could be the only figure who stands between Hillary and the White House.
And, unlike Rudy — and also unlike Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) — Condi can probably win the nomination. A social conservative who will elaborate her largely traditional views on important values issues as an inevitable part of her service as secretary of State, Rice can win primaries where Guiliani cannot and beat Hillary where neither Frist nor Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) nor Jeb Bush nor Pataki can.
Will Condi run? It is very important that she does. But it is very important to end the Republican complaisance about a Hillary candidacy. The assumption that she is radioactive among moderates and will self-destruct is comforting but completely untrue. Hillary will be the strongest Democratic candidate since her husband ran.
Like Bill, she will tack to the center and take a traditional line on controversial social issues like gay marriage. But we must always remember that while Bill is a moderate who becomes a liberal when he must, that Hillary is a liberal who pretends moderation when she has to.
Only people who think that politicians can't re-invent themselves think Hildebeast is DOA for '08. Take a Vietnam traitor with an uppity accent mix one part MSM and one part cold hard cash for production value-filled events and ads and you have a guy who came a little over 100K votes from winning the EC and the WH. Hillary is smarter than Kerry, doesn't have SwiftVets breathing down her neck, has a better relationship with the MSM, has novelty (as a woman and former first lady), and will have way more cash than Kerry had.
Whoa, many of you fear a win.
I don't. I think she will never win. Women that are heterosexual and with kids will comes out in droves to vote against her. Women realize she is twofaced. Women will give a Guy a pass on this one. But remember when a woman hates another woman that means something.
Secondly, a candiate has to "look" presidential. Hillary looks like a Telly-Tubby.
A Telly-Tubby can't be trusted to fight a war on terror. And trust me, sad but true, the world will see another Bali, another Madrid Spain, another African Embassy type attack and maybe another WTC I attack (small scale).
So the war on terror is here to stay.
Hillary is not.
I also totally agree with Morris that Guiliani is the only one who can beat Hillary. I know that will drive most here crazy.
of course, many of those voters would not actually support Hillary, and the Fox News poll was careful to precede the question by saying, “Regardless of whether you would vote for Hillary Clinton or not, …” the breadth of her acceptability indicates that she has passed the national threshold for political viability.
Nice though she is, Condi wouldn't stand a chance. Just go and ask your more liberal and moderate friends.
The big problem is that the GOP has no candidate with the necessary profile. What they need is someone who can make Florida competitive, and at the same time, pick off one or two Midwestern Blue States that Hillary will have to win, while nevertheless hanging onto all the other Red States.
The only possible Midwest ticket balancer that I can see is Norm Coleman, but I'm open to suggestions.
And she will get 42-46%, just as her husband did.
Absent H. Ross Perot, Bill Clinton would only have gotten into the White House as part of a public sightseeing tour. Clinton needed the help of a third party, because his support maxed out in the mid 40's.
Hillary! is seen as merely qualified by 80% of Kerry supporters, and unqualified by 13% with 7% (presumably) unsure. If Hillary! loses 13% of the Kerry vote, how is she going to replace it? She is left with 48% minus (48% * 13%), which leaves her at 41.5%
This is more or less what Bubba got in '92. But thanks to H. Ross Perot, it was enough. Hillary! will not be so lucky in 2008...
No, actually,it is well documented that she is a socialist, thus a devout communist. Far more dangerous than your average liberal.
i dont believe america want bill and hill back in the Oval Office.
"...Hillary is going to be far tougher to beat"
Hillary Rodham has an awful lot of baggage, from Cattlegate to Filegate to Pardongate. In a national campaign she would have to answer the tough questions she avoided when she oozed into New York. The Swifties were nothing compared to what Rodham's going to be hit with.
Um, yeah, but will the MSM cover any of it? Or if they do, will they spin it as more "politics of personal destruction?"
I hope you are right. But fear too many people would still be hoodwinked . . .
Which happens to be more or less Kerry's percentage of the vote in 2004. She needs to hold onto the ABB crowd as well as all the Kerry voters. And Hillary needs to hit the ground running early. And the Democratic as well as the Republican field will be crowded with aspirants. There's no guarantee she will even get the nomination. Look at what happened to Howard Dean on the way on the coronation.
Gun control is my litmus test. Support it and I'll vote for someone who doesn't. There is no lesser of two evils when it comes to this issue.
LOL it does drive most people here crazy but your're right!
I like Condi. BUT if she is the ONLY one that can win than as a party we would be in trouble. There are so many good Republican possibilities I can't really see it as a "Condi only" situation.
Not yet anyway.
Maybe she would be good for the VP slot.
fascist left, I'd say.
Dick Morris is an expert in two subjects, Bill Clinton and Hillary!. Bill Clinton is now irrelevant, but people still call Morris up to ask what he thinks about Hillary!'s political prospects. Look for him to short stroke talk of a Hillary! candidacy all the way to 2008 to maintain his own political relevance.
Okay--this is who I think it's going to be for 2008--the same guys that just toured the Tsunami areas--Colin Powell for pres and Jeb Bush for VP. Maybe not my personal choices, but choices I could live with and a team that I think could beat Hillary. I like Condi Rice but she wouldn't be a contender for president especially against Hillary. I also don't think that black Americans would be flocking over to vote for her--they stick with the Dems no matter what. Also, she's never held elective office and she's not married.
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