Posted on 01/10/2005 8:43:06 AM PST by areafiftyone
Those who would stick their heads in the sand and maintain that Sen. Hillary Clinton could never be elected president are in for a rude shock, according to the latest data from the Fox News survey.
In a poll taken last month, Americans said they felt the New York Democrat was “qualified to be president of the United States” by 59-34 percent. Clinton showed strength among all traditional Democratic voters, winning the approval of Sen. John Kerry supporters by 80-13, blacks by 80-8, all women by 64-29 and unmarried women by 69-24 and people under 30 by 73-20.
But she also did well among more traditionally Republican constituencies. Men said she was qualified by 53-40. Southerners agreed by 55-36, as did those earning more than $75,000 per year, who felt she was qualified by 58-39. While 80 percent of liberals felt she was qualified, so did 59 percent of moderates and 43 percent of self-described conservatives. Incredibly, so did 33 percent of Republicans and 37 percent of Bush voters.
Of course, many of those voters would not actually support Hillary, and the Fox News poll was careful to precede the question by saying, “Regardless of whether you would vote for Hillary Clinton or not, …” the breadth of her acceptability indicates that she has passed the national threshold for political viability.
The Fox News poll tested Hillary against several possible 2008 GOP contenders and found that she ran ahead of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush by 46-35, ahead of New York Gov. George Pataki by 41-35 and ahead of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) by 40-33.
Nor is there any basis for believing the conventional GOP wisdom that a Hillary candidacy would trigger a backlash among men, conservatives and Republicans.
When Fox News matched the former first lady against Jeb Bush in a trial heat, Hillary’s numbers were similar to those former presidential candidate Kerry racked up in a parallel test.
Among men, for example, Hillary defeated Jeb Bush by 44-39 while Kerry broke even, 42-42. While 23 percent of conservatives supported Hillary against the president’s brother, only 21 percent backed Kerry in a similar contest.
Geographically, Hillary beat Southerners Jeb Bush and Frist in the South, beating Bush in the red-state region by 42-41 and Frist by 38-37. And, in the critical Midwest, where most swing states are located, Hillary ran 11 points ahead of Jeb Bush, 10 ahead of Frist and six ahead of Pataki.
The strongest candidate against Hillary is, of course, Rudy Guiliani, whom an earlier Fox News poll showed beating her by almost 10 points. But the former New York City mayor will have a hard time winning the Republican nomination. Can a pro-abortion-rights, pro-affirmative-action, pro-gay-rights, pro-gun-control, pro-immigration moderate win Republican primaries?
Ultimately, the only Republican who may be able to beat Hillary is Bush’s nominee for secretary of state, Condeleezza Rice. Able to appeal to black and female voters without sacrificing support among whites and men, Condi could be the only figure who stands between Hillary and the White House.
And, unlike Rudy — and also unlike Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) — Condi can probably win the nomination. A social conservative who will elaborate her largely traditional views on important values issues as an inevitable part of her service as secretary of State, Rice can win primaries where Guiliani cannot and beat Hillary where neither Frist nor Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) nor Jeb Bush nor Pataki can.
Will Condi run? It is very important that she does. But it is very important to end the Republican complaisance about a Hillary candidacy. The assumption that she is radioactive among moderates and will self-destruct is comforting but completely untrue. Hillary will be the strongest Democratic candidate since her husband ran.
Like Bill, she will tack to the center and take a traditional line on controversial social issues like gay marriage. But we must always remember that while Bill is a moderate who becomes a liberal when he must, that Hillary is a liberal who pretends moderation when she has to.
Hillary is slick - she's going to play to the left and the right.
Don't ASSUME that. I never imagined that the most liberal Senator in history (Kerry) would come so close to defeating Bush.
"In a poll taken last month, Americans said they felt the New York Democrat was “qualified to be president of the United States” by 59-34 percent."
Last time I checked, anyone who was at least 35 years old and a natural-born citizen was “qualified to be president of the United States”. Heck, Michael Jackson and Morley Safer are “qualified to be president of the United States”. For that matter, so is Dick Morris. What's the big deal?
She could NEVER win Florida!
The legacy media's power is broken. I wouldn't trust thumb-sucking Dick Morris' predictions three years early. Its a long time and anything can happen between now and 2008. Its too early to call Hillary a shoo-in.
Democrats don't have anyone who can run for president except Hillary. They will push Hillary BIG TIME if they can't get anyone. Women in this may not like her but they are fascinated by her just like they were with her husband!
Cake walk in Florida. Believe me, I'm in Orlando, and I can tell you that all she's got to do is demogogue social security and medicare. She could even beat Jeb in Florida if she does that.
Oh, I don't think she's a sho in by any means.
But she won't face any hard questions by the left and we have to be prepared on the right.
But he did not.
He did not win because he lost Florida. Hitlery will make sure that doesn't happen again.
All I know is there is no way in h*** the Dems are going to let themselves be beaten next time.
In 2008 they are going to try and play it very, very smart.
To my way of thinking, Hilary is not a smart choice. I have no idea who would be, but she seems too much like a cartoonish, fantasy candidate, a wet dream liberal idea to 'exorcise' 2000 and 2004.
It seems that Bush's only weakness with his recent supporters is on immigration, and whatever quiet game Hilary is playing now I can't believe she'll stand up in 2008 and be for stronger measures against illegals than GWB. Even if he opens the floodgates, her policy would be to give them life-jackets and kayaks.
Florida is a solid GOP state now
Thank You Al Gore!
Ohio is now solid red too.
Thank You John Kerry! (and an honorable mention to the Green and Libertarian parties for organizing the recount)
This numbers are not at all different that the ones of a "Generic" Democrat beating George Bush at the start of the last election. "A" Democrat was regularly trouncing President Bush by 10-12 points until some names started being taken seriously.
This no different. One Hillary is running against "Somebody" not just "Anybody", her numbers are very likely to fall. I see her having problems holding on to her Senate seat and a few chinks in her armor are going to have to be exposed during that run. Also, what she is going to have to commit to to win her Senate seat in New York she will have to flip-flop on to win nationally. We all saw how well flip-flopping and nuance worked for Keryy, didn't we.
Well being that you are in FL and know FL politics than I do I guess we have to start worrying than.
J.D. Hayworth for President? Maybe he can beat her.
But we also need to take into consideration how the GOP can spin someone out of the universe if they so choose and Hillary has so many skeltons in her old closet it would be a slam-dunk better than the Swifties with Kerry.
Morris is desperate to make us all sick. I think he likes stirring the controversial pot to keep his gig as commentator.
Condi seems to cold to make it on TV.
Which, sad it seems, is where these things tend to be won and lost.
Hillary's numbers are very soft. People don't know her policy positions. At some point, she's going to have to explain them. Will liberalism still have a market in this country in 2008? Liberals comfort themselves with the belief the reason they lost last year was that Kerry was a terrible salesman. They think Hillary will put a more attractive face on the product. And therein lies their Great Hope for a comeback.
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