Aid effort shows limits of China's rising power

International Herald Tribune ^ | January 4, 2005 | Jim Yardley

[RWR8189]

Significant response quickly loses luster

 

BEIJING China's new and growing influence in Asia, which some analysts say has come at the expense of the United States, is showing its limits as the aspiring superpower plays an active but secondary role in responding to the tsunami disaster.

The Chinese response is significant by even the recent standards of its inward-looking history. But it is also a reminder that the world's most populous country is far from being the dominant power in Asia.

Last weekend, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao announced that China would donate more than $62 million, one of its largest ever pledges of international relief aid. But that figure was quickly eclipsed when the United States increased its pledge to $350 million and Japan followed with a $500 million donation.

[Dr. Marten]

""The things China has been doing are all win-win," said Sutter, now a visiting professor at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

"They don't generally cost China anything. But when you have to do something that costs something, it's hard for them to do it. They don't have the resources or the experience."

He added, "They are still an aid recipient.""


Kudos to Sutter! Not very many strategists are keen enough to point that out.

[Dr. Marten]

""Chinese care more about foreigners!" complained one Internet writer. "Of course disaster relief is necessary, but we should give more care to the disadvantaged groups within our country!""

Oooh, could that be further discontent that I smell brewing?

[risk]

If China suddenly passed through the superpower threshold, would they be interested in revealing it right away?

[Republican Party Reptile]

People - both the xenophobic, blustery Chinese side boasting of taking on the U.S. power in the Taiwan Strait / Western Pacific as well as the alarmist on the U.S. side who cries the sky is falling with every report of Chinese advance economically, politically, or militarily, should take note.

In as clear a demonstration as there is in rapid response mobilization and power projection, China falls far, far short in having the military and civilian infrastructure, communication / coordination / decision making, logistics capability, equipment, training, and personnel to project her power beyond her own border, even to a relatively near Southeast and South Asia. Within days, there are American ships and helicopters swarming all over the place, Japanese and Australian ships and transport aircrafts doing relief missions.

Heck, even tiny Singapore was able to demonstrate a level of capability that's lacking in China - with the rapid dispatch of two landing ships (RSS Endurance & RSS Persistance) that's larger than any LST in Chinese navy inventory and conducted a difficult landing operation at Meulaboh.

---

In multilateral role, China tests its ability
By Jim Yardley The New York Times
Tuesday, January 4, 2005


BEIJING China's new and growing influence in Asia, which some analysts say has come at the expense of the United States, is showing its limits as the aspiring superpower is playing an active but secondary role in responding to the tsunami disaster.

The Chinese response is significant by even the recent standards of its inward-looking history. But it is also a reminder that the world's most populous country is far from being the dominant power in Asia.

Last weekend, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao announced that China would donate more than $62 million, one of its largest ever pledges of international relief aid. But that figure was quickly eclipsed when the United States increased its pledge to $350 million and Japan followed with a $500 million donation.

Moreover, China has watched as American vessels have moved quickly into the region with U.S. Navy helicopters delivering food and critical supplies to the hardest-hit areas of Indonesia. This week, another convoy of American ships is expected to arrive in Sri Lanka with more than 1,500 marines.

By contrast, China's primary contribution at the scene has been a 35-member medical team now treating patients in Indonesia. Other Chinese medical teams are being dispatched, and at least one commercial cargo plane has already left Beijing with $1.8 million in medicine, food and generators.

For more than a year, China's top officials and diplomats have sought a leadership role in the region on the strength of the country's booming economy. Other Asian countries have eagerly sought trade deals with China, and Wen has promoted the idea of an Asian equivalent to the European Union.

But gaining such economic clout has not yet translated into broader power or influence, according to Robert Sutter, a former American government official who has written extensively about U.S.-China relations. China's soft power is growing in the region but should not be overstated, Sutter said.

"The things China has been doing are all win-win," said Sutter, now a visiting professor at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

"They don't generally cost China anything. But when you have to do something that costs something, it's hard for them to do it. They don't have the resources or the experience."

He added, "They are still an aid recipient."

In the past few years, China has begun to transition from a recipient to a donor nation. Last year, the World Food Program, an arm of the United Nations, announced that it would phase out subsidies to China by the end of 2005. Japan has also been reducing its aid to China while increasing support for India.

Meanwhile, China's effort to raise its profile in the region has prompted it to begin making aid donations to countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Burma and Afghanistan. China is also believed to donate tens of millions of dollars in annual aid to help prop up North Korea.

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international politics at People's University in Beijing, said the United States has a "huge superiority" over China in responding to such international disasters. But Shi said China's response to the tsunami disaster marked a milestone shift from the country's past. He said $62 million was a very significant sum for China.

"We are still learning how to react multilaterally," Shi said. "But there is a new sense that China should play more of a role. China has a new sense of its potential as one of the most important regional power in Asia."

President Hu Jintao, quoted in the state news media, said the government would provide "any possible aid in its power to those in need." His comments echoed remarks by Wen, who announced China's expanded aid package last Friday at a meeting with ambassadors from the affected nations. In all, China has delivered $2.6 million in aid.

Meanwhile, the Chinese propaganda machine has been hard at work. Stories of ordinary citizens' making small donations to nongovernmental relief funds have filled newspapers.

An article about the Chinese medical team in People's Daily, the Communist Party's main newspaper, declared in a headline on Monday: "Indonesian disaster victims speak from the heart: China is a great country!"

But China is also a country with a yawning wealth gap and massive domestic problems.

On the Chinese Internet, writers posted e-mail messages in several chat rooms questioning why China was not spending its money at home. Others were furious that China was helping Indonesia, where ethnic Chinese residents were raped and attacked during rioting in 1998.

"Chinese care more about foreigners!" complained one Internet writer. "Of course disaster relief is necessary, but we should give more care to the disadvantaged groups within our country!"

Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing has already spoken by telephone with the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan. China Daily, the government's English-language daily, reported that China, a Security Council member with veto power, had endorsed the United Nations' taking the lead role in the relief effort.

No mention was made of the relief coalition of donor nations announced by President George W. Bush that include India, Japan, Australia and the United States. China is conspicuously absent, though Bush said he expected other nations to quickly join the group.

David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University, said China, ultimately, had the basic equipment and capability to provide a military response to future disasters - assuming that its leaders chose to and that other nations approve. Suspicions of Chinese military overtures remain high from countries like Japan and Indonesia.

For now, Shambaugh said, the Chinese military is largely unaccustomed to participating in international efforts. He said the United States regularly participates in military training exercises with other nations. China, though, started joint search and rescue naval operations only in 2002 with countries like Pakistan, India, Britain and France.

Beyond the military, Shambaugh said, the rest of the region is watching China as the tsunami crisis continues.

"Given China's growing influence in the region," he said, "this catastrophe is going to reveal whether China will put resources behind its rhetoric and can contribute on the ground in a meaningful way."

[Magnum44]

Excellent post, though it won't stop the gloom and doomers from crying about how we are encouraging them to attack Taiwan, and how they are going to surpass us military, technologically, and economically.

[BobL]

"though it won't stop the gloom and doomers..."

That's me!!!

We had a great party right up until 1941. Japan?? Is that something you boil rice in?

Interesting article I read today. It said Kyoto was useless, because 800 coal-fired power plants are going to be built in the next 8 years (8 years is a short enough time span to be able to trust these types of numbers). Who builds the most? You guessed it. China with about 500 of them. India next with 230 of them, and then the US at 70. The article also implied that the US currently has about 750 coal plant now (it didn't say what China has now, but I think it's reasonable to assume several hundred). The bottom line - the Chinese will be producing as much (or nearly as much) electricity as us from coal in 8! years and coal is our primary means of electricity production.

The fact that you and others discount this along with everything else you hear regarding China, explains why this country cannot seem to take this threat seriously. I guess we'll have to woken up once again, and God willing, before it's too late.

Sometimes there IS a reason to be paranoid.

[Magnum44]

The fact that you and others discount this along with everything else you hear regarding China, explains why this country cannot seem to take this threat seriously.

We do take the Chinese threat seriously. There would not be nearly the assets we keep in the Pacific Area if we did not. We are just not paranoid about it because we know what they are capable of, we know what we are capable of, and we know we are prepared to deal with them stepping out of line.

When I speak of "we" I am referring to those involved with or knowledge of the force planning and readiness for contingencies in this part of the world. The writers of most of the articles concerning this are ignorant of most of planning and prep that goes on to keep the threat from getting cocky. And the paranoia comes from those readers who soak up the hype without stopping to think there might be smart people working problems on our side too.

Ask yourself, how many times have you read articles about Chinese maneuvers to intimidate Taiwan? At least a couple of times a year. They have exercises that run almost 6 months from beginning to culmination every year.

How many exercises do you read about US maneuvers? Just because you don't read about them, doesn't mean they don't exist. Something the Chinese can be paranoid about.

[BobL]

Easy - I'm don't think that I said that China is a military threat to us - today, and they certainly aren't a navel threat today.

Nor will they be a threat in the near future. However, once they have an economy larger than ours, they can buy a lot of capability, and quite quickly, from countries like France and Russia (for starters). Things just seem too quiet on our end. I don't hear any 'concern' in official quarters about their future threat, either from Republicans or Dems - yet a country on the economic trajectory that they are on, coupled with how they view their humiliation of their past, should be watched very closely.

I more get the impression that no one in official quarters will point to the elephant in the room, for fear of being labeled paranoid (as demonstrated here).

What would I do:

1) Maybe let the country know that we're going to be #2 economically real soon, and that may help pull this country together a bit (and finally put the Libs out to pasture).

2) Speed up Strategic Defense

3) Up the size of the military

Basically have this country prepared for the day when China's economic gains get translated into the inevitable military threat that coming a lot sooner than people have any idea of.

[Magnum44]

China is a threat, and an opportunity, like the Soviet Union was at the end of the Cold War. If you read the President's National Security Strategy, regional peace and security in Asia, and relations with China in particular are of great concern, and take a high priority within the administration.

Maybe let the country know that we're going to be #2

That is one of the biggest pieces of misinformation being pro-ported today. China has a growing third world economy, yes. Their net worth, their GNP, doesn't even come close. They have an aging population, and their future social security/poverty problems make ours look like nothing. In 1999 and 2000, economist were telling us that this century, or at least the first half of it, would be dominated by US economic strength. Even 9-11 hasn't changed that. The EU bubble is near collapse and China gets by on cheap labor for cheap goods. Our economy is solid.

2) Speed up Strategic Defense 3) Up the size of the military

Transformation continues under Rumsfeld. Wait until the budgets are finalized this year and then judge whether our military is getting the right resources. Between 1992 and 2000 the military budgets were below $285B. Since the first review under this admin, the have been between $350B and $450B. We don't get everything everybody wants, but we get the right mix we need.

[BobL]

" Their net worth, their GNP, doesn't even come close. "

Then please explain the following:

1) Parity in 8 years in coal-produced power generation
2) Present usage of 1/3 of the worlds concrete
3) Present production of 1/4 of the world's steel
4) Huge price gyrations in steel, lumber, and oil all attributed to China.

For a dying off 3rd World country they certainly are having a big effect on everything.


"In 1999 and 2000, economist were telling us that this century, or at least the first half of it."

...and they were predicting the above, due to China's growth. Face it, we (and virtually all the experts) missed the boat big-time on China's emergence, and now my kids have to pay for it.


"Our economy is solid."

Agreed. It's that their economy is on fire, and they've got 1.3 Billion people to keep it moving. We're simply outnumbered.

[Magnum44]

Then please explain the following: 1) Parity in 8 years in coal-produced power generation 2) Present usage of 1/3 of the worlds concrete 3) Present production of 1/4 of the world's steel 4) Huge price gyrations in steel, lumber, and oil all attributed to China.

I am not an economist, and I don't know where these "facts" came from (looks like more prediction to me), so I don't see any point to me trying to explain these claims. I am just saying that there is contradictory evidence out there if you keep your eyes and ears open to other sources.

As far as concrete usage and steel production goes, I am not terribly concerned about how much concrete they pour. And the economy of this country has not been hurt by the production of steel in China. We have more than adequate capacity for ourselves. As far their producing more steel, I am more concerned about what they do with it than the fact they make it cheaply. And so far it goes mainly into construction. Don't have too much problem with that. As far as coal plants go, thats more an issue for Chinese environmentalist than us. There not going to conquer us with steam engines.

For a dying off 3rd World country they certainly are having a big effect on everything.

Well, I did not say dying, but they will certainly continue to have more than their share of social ills as long as they have state run economies. China has a far bigger gap between its wealthy and its poor than we do. 90 percent of its army is devoted to keeping the lid on internal problems. They cant project power well beyond there own borders (witness their failure to appear on the tsunami aid scene)

[risk]

Peace through strength.

[BobL]

All from the MSM

1) Implied, not stated (but read the article - it is almost implied): http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1223/p01s04-sten.html
2) "More than 40 percent of all cement now is being used in China" (I was wrong, sorry). http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/07/14/biz_cement14.html
3) "It must be noted that China alone constitutes over 25% of world steel production and consumption." http://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/sector-info/steel/
4) Take my word on this one - it's the only reason the above articles were written...and did I mention China's impact on oil.

Now that I've cited my sources, will you let me go back into my paranoid world? It painful for me to think about these statistics and then think about my kids having to face them.

[diamond6]

Excellent excellent point!

[Magnum44]

It's that their economy is on fire, and they've got 1.3 Billion people to keep it moving.

One point I failed to mention. I do not begrudge the Chinese or any nation that tries to create better conditions for its people. While we can certainly both agree that their motives may be suspicious many times, if their economy improves, that means fewer people living in caves without clothes, food, or the essentials of a meaningful existence.

Prosperous (and particulary democratic) nations rarely seek out war. China has the potential to go either way, so we must guide them to a peaceful path of success if we don't want to push them into a war. Eventually, open economies, business, and trade will drive the democratic wedge into China without a fight. But until then, yes we must remain vigilant.

[Paul_Denton]

Bah china giving aid? how hipocritical when they repress their own population. If I were one of the victemized countries I would tell China to take its dirty money and shove it.

[Magnum44]

All from the MSM

I'm not sure if your saying that coming from MSM is good and credible or otherwise. I won't make judgement on your sources, and if true, I am not sure that any of those constitute genuine threats.

Now that I've cited my sources, will you let me go back into my paranoid world?

If you desire. Its your life. As for myself, I think I'm happier knowing that of all the things to worry about these days, this one is not the one I would lose sleep over.

[BobL]

Peace.