Posted on 12/27/2004 9:23:23 AM PST by calcowgirl
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush faces a major rebellion within his own party if he follows through on a promise to push legislation that would offer millions of illegal immigrants a path to U.S. citizenship. Almost no issue divides Republicans as deeply.
To get the guest-worker initiative through Congress, Bush will need to go against the wishes of many Republicans and forge bipartisan alliances. That's what President Clinton did in 1993 to win approval for a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, over objections of a large bloc of congressional Democrats.
The chance seems slim for finding common ground between those in favor of liberalized immigration laws - Bush, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for example - and those who want fewer immigrants, tougher border controls and harsher penalties.
Opposition is strongest among House Republicans.
"In our party, this is a deep division that is growing deeper every minute," says Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo. He heads a group of 70 lawmakers who are against easing immigration laws.
Tancredo said Bush's guest-worker proposal is "a pig with lipstick" and will not pass.
Bush asserts that he won valuable "political capital" in the election and intends to spend it. It is not clear how much of that he is willing to spend on the immigration measure.
Higher on his list of priorities is overhauling the Social Security system, rewriting the tax laws, limiting lawsuit judgments, and making his first-term tax cuts permanent.
An estimated 10 million immigrants live in the United States illegally; the vast majority are from Mexico, with an additional million arriving every year.
A hint of the trouble ahead for Bush on immigration came this month when proposals to tighten - not ease - border restrictions nearly undermined a bill to restructure U.S. intelligence agencies.
The chairman of the House Judiciary Committee wanted the measure to bar states from giving a driver's license to illegal immigrants. Rep. James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., said some of the Sept. 11 hijackers gained access to U.S. aircraft by using a driver's license as identification.
Sensenbrenner ultimately backed down, but only after House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill, promised that the chairman's proposal would be considered in separate legislation in 2005.
Hastert also indicated he would not move ahead on major legislation unless it was supported by a majority of Republicans in the GOP-controlled House - and that he would not rely on Democratic support to pass a bill.
Immigration overhaul is "an issue that splits both parties, and given the new Hastert rule, may never go anywhere," said William A. Niskanen, chairman of the libertarian Cato Institute. Niskanen was a member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers.
The president's plan would grant temporary-worker status, for three years to six years, to millions of undocumented workers. It also would it easier for those workers to get permanent U.S. citizenship.
As governor of Texas, Bush was committed to immigration changes. As president, he came close to making a deal with Mexican President Vicente Fox in the days before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Those plans were put on hold as tighter borders took on a higher priority for the United States.
As a presidential candidate, both in 2000 and 2004, Bush eagerly courted Hispanics, the fastest-growing ethnic group in the electorate.
"We will keep working to make this nation a welcoming place for Hispanic people, a land of opportunity para todos (for all) who live here in America," Bush told the League of United Latin American Citizens last summer.
Bush claimed 35 percent of Hispanic voters in 2000 and at least 40 percent last Nov. 2, according to exit polls. That compares with the 21 percent won by Bob Dole in 1996 and the 25 percent that Bush's father got in 1992.
Republican consultants suggest Bush will not make a big push for his immigration bill until he has achieved his goals on Social Security and the tax laws. They also say the president may jettison the immigration bill if it would jeopardize other parts of his agenda.
Inside the administration, nobody is suggesting that passing the immigration plan would be anything other than extremely difficult.
"We don't want to overpromise," Secretary of State Colin Powell said during a visit last month to Mexico City.
EDITOR'S NOTE Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973, including five presidencies.
That's quite a big paint brush you use, but that's to be expected from someone who can't really debate the issues at hand.
Good bye.
Good joke.
I agree (almost) totally. I do not think we need more laws for government and business to ignore to suit their self-interests, however. I've outlined how to do without new laws on other threads.
"merely want to support their families by doing an honest day's labor"
I am afraid that's something many are missing. Scores of ILLEGAL immigrants have normal jobs they are not criminals or rowdy day laborers. I've suggested how they could continue to do so without new laws. As others have suggested start by getting rid of the real criminals.
Was goin back through the thread and missed your reply #77 as the usual one issue posse names on FR on this issue posted their usual, IMO, blast faxed replies. Sorry about the delay.
No the ends do not justify the means, just as LBJ's ending a guest worker program that actually worked was dismantled and brought about the problem we have now.
Have you not been reading the papers? ICE is currently looking for 300,000 aliens that did not show up for their deportation hearings. Many of those are felons. Thats why ICE and DHS have made them a priority.
The only time they get deported is if ICE knows they are in jail and informs the jail to tell ICE when they are to be released, so ICE can pick them up. There is currently no tracking system for illegal aliens in Local and State jails and prisons. Its all hit or miss.
As I suspect you know, local and State jails dont coordinate with ICE very well and ICE does not coordinate with anyone very well.
A combination of the Korean DMZ and Hadrian's Wall and of course the Israeli security fence would do the job.
The conventional wisdom at Free Republic is that if you start enough threads and keep them bumped up, Congress will deport the mexicans.
"The chance seems slim for finding common ground between those in favor of liberalized immigration laws - Bush, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for example.."
The usual suspects.
I'd bet a lot of these illegal aliens who commit felonies have their sentences plea bargained down to a misdemeanor by liberal judges. Isn't that what happened in New York City a couple of years ago when that gang of illegals kidnapped and raped a woman. A couple of those illegals had run afoul of the law before but of course NYC has some kind of sanctuary policy involving illegal aliens.
This is to inform you that your deportation hearing will be at 1pm, Tuesday next month, please be there.
Yours Truly Uncle Sam.
Pretty imprssive enforcement, huh? And did you know that local LE is PROHIBITED from inquiring into the immigration status of persons arrested for felonies? More impressive enforcement huh? Yup, the government is doing everything it can to catch and deport illegal alien felons.
So thats it. Nobody else has any say in this matter. If true we ought to invite King George of England back to rule over us.
Somebody hold me back!
Not even the President.
Everyone here sets their own preferences.
Not even the President.
If true, doesn't this bother you ?
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