Posted on 12/27/2004 9:23:23 AM PST by calcowgirl
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush faces a major rebellion within his own party if he follows through on a promise to push legislation that would offer millions of illegal immigrants a path to U.S. citizenship. Almost no issue divides Republicans as deeply.
To get the guest-worker initiative through Congress, Bush will need to go against the wishes of many Republicans and forge bipartisan alliances. That's what President Clinton did in 1993 to win approval for a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, over objections of a large bloc of congressional Democrats.
The chance seems slim for finding common ground between those in favor of liberalized immigration laws - Bush, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for example - and those who want fewer immigrants, tougher border controls and harsher penalties.
Opposition is strongest among House Republicans.
"In our party, this is a deep division that is growing deeper every minute," says Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo. He heads a group of 70 lawmakers who are against easing immigration laws.
Tancredo said Bush's guest-worker proposal is "a pig with lipstick" and will not pass.
Bush asserts that he won valuable "political capital" in the election and intends to spend it. It is not clear how much of that he is willing to spend on the immigration measure.
Higher on his list of priorities is overhauling the Social Security system, rewriting the tax laws, limiting lawsuit judgments, and making his first-term tax cuts permanent.
An estimated 10 million immigrants live in the United States illegally; the vast majority are from Mexico, with an additional million arriving every year.
A hint of the trouble ahead for Bush on immigration came this month when proposals to tighten - not ease - border restrictions nearly undermined a bill to restructure U.S. intelligence agencies.
The chairman of the House Judiciary Committee wanted the measure to bar states from giving a driver's license to illegal immigrants. Rep. James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., said some of the Sept. 11 hijackers gained access to U.S. aircraft by using a driver's license as identification.
Sensenbrenner ultimately backed down, but only after House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill, promised that the chairman's proposal would be considered in separate legislation in 2005.
Hastert also indicated he would not move ahead on major legislation unless it was supported by a majority of Republicans in the GOP-controlled House - and that he would not rely on Democratic support to pass a bill.
Immigration overhaul is "an issue that splits both parties, and given the new Hastert rule, may never go anywhere," said William A. Niskanen, chairman of the libertarian Cato Institute. Niskanen was a member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers.
The president's plan would grant temporary-worker status, for three years to six years, to millions of undocumented workers. It also would it easier for those workers to get permanent U.S. citizenship.
As governor of Texas, Bush was committed to immigration changes. As president, he came close to making a deal with Mexican President Vicente Fox in the days before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Those plans were put on hold as tighter borders took on a higher priority for the United States.
As a presidential candidate, both in 2000 and 2004, Bush eagerly courted Hispanics, the fastest-growing ethnic group in the electorate.
"We will keep working to make this nation a welcoming place for Hispanic people, a land of opportunity para todos (for all) who live here in America," Bush told the League of United Latin American Citizens last summer.
Bush claimed 35 percent of Hispanic voters in 2000 and at least 40 percent last Nov. 2, according to exit polls. That compares with the 21 percent won by Bob Dole in 1996 and the 25 percent that Bush's father got in 1992.
Republican consultants suggest Bush will not make a big push for his immigration bill until he has achieved his goals on Social Security and the tax laws. They also say the president may jettison the immigration bill if it would jeopardize other parts of his agenda.
Inside the administration, nobody is suggesting that passing the immigration plan would be anything other than extremely difficult.
"We don't want to overpromise," Secretary of State Colin Powell said during a visit last month to Mexico City.
EDITOR'S NOTE — Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973, including five presidencies.
"I'm curious as to how Mexico deals with immigration?"
Well, from what I've read, US Citizens cannot become Mexican citizens. Non-Mexican's cannot own property....they can lease the land and build on it, but they can never own it. If the lease is ever revoked or runs out, you lose everything. Work permits in Mexico are very strict and limited.
Seems they have the policy that we don't. I do believe it is very hypocritical of them to cry about how we handle illegals when they do much worse.
Not exactly, they bought a ticket to Ellis Island. The shipping companies(Cunard etc.) were the legal(for lack of a better term) "coyotes". They were fed and had bunks to sleep in on their way over. Was it luxurious, no, but it wasn't exactly inhumane either.
JMO, that's what President Bush wants to do, bring more Cunard's into the process instead of the staus quo, of coyotes taking advantage of these people.
That is what is supposed to happen, but it is not what really happens. If were lucky, we might find and deport 75% of the felons in jail.
No, I don't want to spend 30k a year for them to get three hots and a Cot.
Send these people to a place like Elba or something, just out of here and away from the rest of us.
Why would I have regrets? I'm not the one who is passing this bill. The only regret I sometimes have is voting for GWB instead of the Constitutional Party candidate but all that could have got us is Kerry who is a lot worse on this issue. What is done is done. We'll all have to learn to live with it.
BTW, I'm curious. If you live in the Ozarks, why do you fly a Texas flag on your FR web site?
Actually there is, IMO, for if the problem of the southern border is solved, you are out of a job.
JMO, unions are in the business of protecting jobs, not in the business of expanding prosperity and creating more jobs, take a look at Europe and their economic malaise, and European unions obstinance to change.
An easy fix to that would be to levy surcharges on cash transfers to any country whose felons inhabit U.S. prisons. Charge them for each felon - plus charge a nice "finders' fee".
What also bothers me is that these people have zero allegiance to the USA and deride it every chance they get.
Everything is "back in my country" with these people. The only thing back in their country is more of the American dollar that these people never paid tax on.
For you people who think you are getting over when the contractor hires these people, wait till one gets hurt and you get a Summons and Complaint in the mail that you are getting sue for personal injuries because the wonderful example of life was not covered by Worker's Comp.
That's a distinct possibility, and I'll be very happy to find a new job if that happens.
Uh where have I(one of "those" people) derided the US.
I haven't, but you go right ahead with your, IMO, hillary like derisive rheotic.
Have you come here illegally?
Do you refuse to speak English and make demands on those that do?
Do you fly the Mexican, Puerto Rican, Ecudorian, Brazilian, etc etc flag without ever flying an American flag next to it?
If the answer to any of these is yes, than yes, you fit every derisive comment I could ever conjure up.
Notice how he skipped my excellent #99, he much prefers insult to debate.
I'm in the IAM and am not happy about their position at all especially them giving money to MADLEF and "The Race" (LaRaza). I've had a long talk with my local union president and plant chairman about this issue and they say they are against amnesty for illegals but have to tow the line for the International. Later on in the conversation I ask them if they knew who George Soros was and they said no. It was hard to continue on from there. They just don't have a clue.
Unions in the past have supported lower immigration levels. They've done a 180 degree turn in a matter of a few years.
JMO, MI, it sure seems you wish to keep the inflammatory rhetoric heated up on FR about the southern border(judging by the # of your posts about this subject and your apparent vitriol towards President Bush's proposals, which, IMO, will bring some sanity to the system that that has gone adrift since LBJ dismantled it).
Call me skeptical about your above italicized passage.
Under Bush's plan, they would have to undergo criminal background checks and meet certain criteria as it pertains to their employment, basically they would have to be sponsored in the same fashion as legal immigrants are now. They would also pay a $1000 fine for violating the law in the first place. While some may call it a "fee" rather than a fine, I must point out that it will not charged to those who enter legally. Their file would also be "flagged" to indicate that they must go to the end of the line for citizenship behind those that enter legally. Anyone that does not apply for legal status within a certain period of time will be deported if caught. While we must seal our borders to illegals, we also need to know where the current illegals are that are within our borders. We cannot deport every current illegal alien, it is not a feasible solution. We should be content to weed out the worst amongst them and provide this channel for those who merely want to support their families by doing an honest day's labor.
Yes I did.
What is it with you? Don't you realize Customs and Border security could actually shorten the immigration wait for LEGAL immigrants if officers and personnel weren't stretched so thin by those hoards who care nothing of our law? Every resource spent on an illegal is a resource that could help a law abiding immigrant.
There is no sanity in the program, only insanity. The effect these illegals aliens are causing is so profound that is changing our culture for the worse, not the better.
I hope you don't mean me. I support your position on this matter. Hiring illegals opens a big can of worms that marginalizes the sovereignty and laws in this country.
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