Posted on 12/09/2004 7:42:34 AM PST by crushelits
Watching the Signs
The race for 2008 is already underway on the Republican side, you just have to know what to look for.
NOT SINCE 1952 has a presidential election lacked a sitting president or vice president as a contestant, and Ike was about as close as one could get to non-official incumbent. Before that, it was the 1928 race, and there, too, Herbert Hoover was, like Ike, a figure of towering popularity. In other words, there has never not been a front-runner in at least one party in the modern scrambles for the presidency. Here is a bit of evidence that the race for 2008 also has a leader, one along the lines of Eisenhower and the Great Engineer.
The National Federation of Republican Women is one of those groups about which not much is ever written, but which functions as one of the circulatory systems of American politics. There's a Republican Women's, Federated in practically every county of every size, and their monthly gatherings are full of the stuff of Tocqueville. These are the precincts of the proverbial "blue haired legions," but also younger, more partisan activists as well.
I make a point of speaking to a couple of chapters of the Federation every year, more to listen than to inform. (These ladies have legislative chairman's reports that go on for an hour--and they take notes.) Last Monday, just before heading off on vacation, I went to Temecula, California to speak to more than 200 women from the Riverside County Republican Women, Federated. After a recap and an assessment of Arnold Schwarzenegger's plans for a special election in 2005 to confront gerrymandering,
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY is as "red" as any county in America, and getting redder. Before I spoke, the group had been entertained by the local home-schooling association's girls' choir, and many of the questions I received concerned illegal immigration and Hillary Clinton's ambitions. In other words--this is to use the title of John Podhoretz's invaluable book on places such as Riverside County, Bush Country.
Giuliani swept more than three-quarters of the votes, with the other three choices receiving smatterings of support. Keep in mind that this isn't an exercise in name identification--these women knew each of the candidates--as well as every possible name in the "other" category. This was an informed choice. I stopped what I was doing, repelled the audience, and then conducted a focus group.
Like many other pundits, I have been wondering whether Giuliani can escape the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008 given that Pat Robertson won the former in 1988 and Pat Buchanan the latter in 1992. Giuliani is too "moderate" to win the GOP nod, right?
Wrong, if these ladies are to be believed. Among the many praises that gushed forth: decisive, experienced, loyal to "W"--an interesting positive, that--funny and, crucially, tough enough to take on the Clintons. There were many praises for Senator Frist, and some for John McCain, but Giuliani has their hearts--already.
I agree with you. Let the Congress and hopefully Senate be more right of center, but Guiliani is definately left of center.
Ahh heck, if these are my choice I am writing in Zell Miller.
Rudi is pro-choice, that will hurt him bad.
Same here.. I'm leaning towards Sanford..
Remember some of the garbage that was surfacing during his Senate run: the oddness of the dissolution of his marriage, his suspected daliances while still married, not to speak of his ardent pro-abortion and overall socially liberal views.
Rudy's a smart man, so he must know that he has no real chance to actually win GOP primaries. "Values" conservatives would coalesce around a favored, culturally-conservative opponent and run Rudy out of the race by June of 2004 at the latest.
Gen. Tommy Franks for 2008
You're either being sarcastic or smoking crack.
Clinton would still be unknown without the help of Ross Perot.
Yes, if Frist is the nominee we do lose. Not so sure that Giuliani loses. He is revered by the folks that only pay attention to politics two weeks prior to an election.
And, yes, I do have an idea . . . I think Mitt Romney would be the best candidate we could offer.
Besides, as we all know, Bill Clinton was an enigma in American politics. He defied all common rules.
Another reason for running Specter is that Senators from the Northeast have done so well in the past as Presidential Candidates.
Jeb Bush in 2008!
I wonder why John Thune gets no mention as a possible pres.
candidate.
The guy did unseat the Senate minority leader in an non controversial election.
If he busts out on the senate floor as likeable, why not?
Unless Guiliani has a pro-life conversion, I don't think he will make it...
Political Fallacy #42 - The GOP can't elect too conservative of a candidate.
Fact - If voters see no discernable difference between two candidates, they aren't motivated to vote. Example-Bush's victory. Several million new voters saw that W was a better man than Kerry and turned out to vote. Another example-Ronald Reagan.
Giuliani is as liberal as Hillary on many issues. He's a good man but can serve us better elsewhere. Frist-he's conservative enough but he's about as exciting as the owner's manual of a 1983 Ford Escort. McCain-well...a McCain/Sanford ticket might work as much as I hate to admit it. However, with all this immigration crap lately, we might wanna find a good dark-horse candidate to address this issue (Tancredo, Inhofe) or at least as a Veep.
If he weren't a Senator, I'd say George Allen would look pretty good as a candidate. Family man, pro-life, from a southern state, reasonable conservative credentials, definitely did a good job on the Republican political leadership front in the last election. But, it's a conundrum. The main reason I know him is because he's on our side in the Senate. I don't want to lose that, plus the recent record of people running for President from the Senate isn't all that great. Governors seem to have the edge.
I would agree with you on that, but I also think geography has to come into play some. If we were to nominate Giuliani or Mitt Romney from the northeast, I really believe we do need to have a southerner on the ticket as V.P. Frist might be good in that role. So would Mitch McConnell (he'll be Senate Majority Leader by that point). And, if Hillary is the nominee, we could counter some of the "female" quotient by having Elizabeth Dole as the V.P. candidate.
Yes, he would have a tough time in the Republican primary, possibly even tougher than a race in the general election. However, all that you were talking about was pre-September 11th. Whether appropriate or not, Rudy was given a clean slate by the New York and American public because of his leadership during that time.
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