A Few of FR's Finest...Every Day...12-09-04...Bush economy keeps booming; experts hardest hit

JohnHuang2, Aquamarine | JohnHuang2

[Aquamarine]

A Few of FR's Finest....Every Day

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Bush economy keeps booming; experts hardest hit

by JohnHuang2

Did you see last Friday's employment report? It was terribly disappointing, say experts. They say the job market is falling apart because the economy created just a tiny 112,000 jobs in November. Experts, before the report, estimated 200,000 jobs had been created in November. Which means experts got it right but the economy got it wrong. Again. (Kinda like the elections -- when 'exit polls' got it right but election returns got it wrong.)

Latest report on employment disappointing, mourned an MSNBC headline. (It was so disappointing that distraught Kerry supporters briefly got out of their fetal position and off the suicide hotline.) "Job growth slowed unexpectedly in November to the weakest pace since the summer 'soft path,' capping a flurry of data that point" to gloom and despair. And the End Of The World. Again, the reason given for why they think things are gloomy is because experts, in forecasting 200,000 new jobs, got it right but the economy got it wrong -- 112,000 new jobs.
(In a stunning break with tradition, Democrats
aren't demanding a recount.)

"For a while, it looked as if the conclusion of the 2004 election would prove to be a rejuvenating tonic for the nation's economy," observes AP economics writer, Martin Crutsinger, an expert. "Then, as has happened so often over the past three years, news on the jobs front fell short of expectations." With tears rolling down his face, he called the latest jobs report "the latest disappointment." Again, the reason given for why he thinks things are gloomy is because experts got it right but the economy got it wrong.

Getting things wrong has become somewhat of a pattern with this economy. Have you noticed? For example, last month experts estimated the economy had created 169,000 jobs for the month of October, but the economy got it wrong. It had created 303,000 jobs instead (the dummy). In other words, the economy missed expert forecasts by 134,000 new jobs. That's 134,000 new jobs too many. (Could it be Steroids?) So, by adding 169,000 new jobs that experts predicted for October to 200,000 new jobs that experts predicted for November, you get a total of 369,000 new jobs, according to expert forecasts. In other words, during the two months in question, the economy should've created 369,000 jobs, in line with expectations. Instead, during the two months in question, the economy, in a major disappointment, created 415,000 jobs -- 303,000 in October + 112,000 in November. (This, even after George Soros slashed 90,000 jobs -- in the Democrat Party.) So, in just two months, the economy missed expert forecasts by 46,000 new jobs. In short, the economy had produced 46,000 more jobs than experts had forecast. This is called a disappointment. (The "disappointment" is so authentic, CBS won't vouch for it.) The jobless rate in November dipped to 5.4%. Another disappointment. (At this rate, the economy should reach a disappointing Full Employment in 12 months and be able to claim a mandate.)

So, recapping, had the economy in October and November created 46,000 fewer jobs, the slower growth would've been in line with expectations -- a sign the economy's in good shape. Instead, it created jobs at a blowout pace -- a sign the economy's in bad shape. (Headline had Kerry won: Report shows massive payroll surge! But Bush won, so headline is: Report shows massive layoffs; Elves hardest hit)

But it's not just October and November. Thanks to Bush's failed economic policies, the pace of job growth since January has averaged over 200,000 per month. That's 50,000 more than needed per month to keep the jobless rate from rising, according to experts. The jobless rate is based on the Household Survey, which is unreliable, according to experts. It shows the anemic job market created 483,000 jobs in November -- 371,000 more than the Payroll Survey says were created in November. So, experts say the jobless rate is reliable but the survey it's based on is bogus and that to keep the jobless rate from rising, 150,000 net new jobs are needed per month in the Payroll Survey which isn't used to calculate the jobless rate. The all-reliable Payroll Survey says payrolls are down in the last four years, so the economy is booming. No net jobs have been added, so malls are packed and people keep buying new cars and homes at a blistering pace. Jobless people do this all the time.

So, let's see how right our vaunted experts have been so far. One year ago, Expert Cynthia Latta, of Global Insight, insightfully forecasted a jobless rate of 5.8% by end of 2004. Oops. Expert David W. Berson of Fannie Mae said the rate would soar to 6.2% by May -- last May. Oops. (More like Fannie Mae not.) Expert Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank saw unemployment reaching 6.3%. Oops. Expert Gary Shilling of Shilling & Co. said they're all wrong -- jobless rate would reach 7.7% by mid-2004. Another genius. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Rocket Science Economics predicted . . . never mind. (Sheila gets thrilled at the notion of a manned-mission all the way to . . . Earth. Think of the spin-offs!)

Summing up the economy overall, real GDP rose 3.9% in the third quarter; DOW rose 5% in November; employment rose to 94.6% rate in November; as profits keep rising, earned income keeps rising, spending keeps rising, investment keeps rising, exports keep rising and oil prices keep falling, core inflation remains tame; ditto interest rates. Armed with these statistics, experts say the economy looks grim. If only Kerry had won on Nov. 2. Then would our economic future be safe. (Yes, as safe as Laci was in Scott Peterson's boat.)

Poor, poor economic girlie-men.

But here's something that'll cheer you up: FOUR MORE YEARS!

Anyway, that's...

My two cents.. "JohnHuang2"

THIS WEEK'S THREADS 12-06-04....Military Monday 12-07-04....Aloha ~ Mele Kalikimaka 12-08-04....A Bracebridge Christmas Revisited

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[Aquamarine]

[Aquamarine]

Welcome to The Finest!

Time for a cup of coffee and another excellent essay written by JohnHuang2.

[Victoria Delsoul]

Thanks for the thread, Aqua. Great article as usual, John.

[MHGinTN]

I dooo love the pictures, folks. John, one of your greatest acerbic quips: "Again, the reason given for why they think things are gloomy is because experts, in forecasting 200,000 new jobs, got it right but the economy got it wrong -- 112,000 new jobs. (In a stunning break with tradition, Democrats aren't demanding a recount.)"

Aquamarine, thanx for the ping to one of JH2's finest columns.

John, you have the strongest 'two cents' in journalism!

[M Kehoe]

Great analysis of the facts, and exposure of the liberal bias in the msm (or should I say dinosaur media?).

Btw, I'm still smiling, not gloating...8^)

Hehehe.

5.56mm

[Aquamarine]

You're welcome Vic.

Saw over at the P&P where you've almost finished your Christmas shopping. Lucky you!

[Victoria Delsoul]

LOL, I almost got sick shopping around.

Nighty night, Aqua. See you tomorrow.

Good job on the thread, btw.

[Aquamarine]

Aquamarine, thanx for the ping to one of JH2's finest columns

It's my pleasure. Good to see ya MHGinTN.

[Mama_Bear]

Excellent! Thank you both for today's thread.

It's time for bed here. I will try to get back in here tomorrow.

[Aquamarine]

Thanks and good night, I need to go too.

[Aquamarine]

XOXOXO Mama Bear.

[Aeronaut]

Good morning Aqua.

[visualops]

Great essay!!
Good morning all!
And a very GOOD morning it is!



LOL!!

[GailA]

Good morning. Another article on target as usual John.

[The Mayor]

December 9, 2004

Afraid To Be Afraid

Read: Psalm 56

Whenever I am afraid, I will trust in You. —Psalm 56:3

Bible In One Year: Daniel 11-12; Jude

---

A young woman was waiting for a bus in a crime-ridden area when a rookie policeman approached her and asked, "Do you want me to wait with you?" "That's not necessary," she replied. "I'm not afraid." "Well, I am," he grinned. "Would you mind waiting with me?"

Like that policeman, we as Christians must be willing to admit that sometimes we become fearful—about dying, about getting cancer, about losing our mind, about losing our job, about our children getting in trouble, about getting old. We don't like to confess it, so we may ignore, deny, or repress those fears. But to overcome our fear, we must first acknowledge it.

The psalmist recognized his fears. "Whenever I am afraid," he said, "I will trust in You" (Psalm 56:3). This trust in the Lord gave him a growing confidence. "I will not fear," he said (v.4). And again, "I will not be afraid" (v.11). This was much more than self-talk. It was a conscious decision to trust in God: "I will."

We can conquer our fears. To admit that we are afraid is to admit that we are human. But to admit being afraid and then trusting the Lord and going forward will take the fear out of fear. —Dennis De Haan

I can walk with Christ in safety,
Trusting Him, my faithful Guide;
There's no reason to be fearful,
Knowing He is by my side. —Hess

We have nothing to fear but fear itself.

[kassie]

And a very GOOD morning it is!

I was just thinking the same thing.

[dansangel]

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Rocket Science Economics predicted . . . never mind.

I am ROFL ((((((JH2)))))))) and (((((((Aqua))))))).

Another thing that tickled me was the picture of the sKerry campaign poster out with the trash - that speaks volumes.

Thank you both for making my day!

[crabbie]

Good Morning and thanks for the good words and coffee.

[The Mayor]

Good day to you Crabbie!

Thank you Aqua and John for a job well done!

[Aquamarine]

Wow, you've got a new plane.
Good Mornin!