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Procreate or perish
The Age ^ | 11/25/04 | AAP

Posted on 11/24/2004 4:34:55 PM PST by qam1

ight the candles, turn on the charm - it's time to start reproducing to save Australia's economic future.

Treasurer Peter Costello has already beseeched healthy young couples to procreate for their country, and now a report on the economic implications of the ageing population has given his words extra weight.

Far from blaming the baby boomers for a projected doubling in the proportion of people aged 65 years or more by 2044, the draft Productivity Commission report has found that falling fertility is the major culprit.

"Much of the projected change in the age structure reflects slow growth in the population of younger ages in the coming decades," the commission said.

"This is not a symptom of the baby boom, but its opposite, the long-run decline of fertility in Australia since the 1960s."

In fact, by temporarily reversing a slow century-long decline in fertility rates, the post-World War II baby boom may actually have delayed the point at which Australia's ageing population will become a big economic burden.

"The main effects of the baby boom have been to defer population ageing in Australia," the commission said.

Short of a massive modern-day baby boom, the commission said there was little the nation could do to slow the process.

"Even where there are no further improvements in life expectancy - a very pessimistic outlook - and no further falls in fertility, then population ageing would still continue," it said.

"There are credible arguments that population ageing may turn out to be more profound than the base case projections used throughout this study."

The commission has even debunked the commonly-held view that increased migration would be an easy way to defer the trend.

"To avoid or delay any increase in the aged dependency ratio by just 40 years would require a net migrant inflow ... about six times the present ratio," it said.

"This would result in an Australian population of around 114 million by 2044/45, compared to the base case projection of 26.2 million."

Having a bigger proportion of older people will increase the nation's healthcare costs and diminish participation in the workforce, the report found.

The commission estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita could fall to 1.25 per cent per year in the 2020s - about half its present rate - while health spending is likely to rise from six per cent to about 10.8 per cent of GDP by 2044.

Despite the projections, Commission chairman Gary Banks said the picture was not all doom and gloom.

"Average household incomes will have nearly doubled in 40 years and rising government outlays bring benefits as well as costs," Mr Banks said.

"Timely policy action would help adjustment and avoid the need for big bang interventions.

"Population ageing can only be conceived of as a crisis if we let it become one."


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Culture/Society; Extended News
KEYWORDS: australia; babyboomers; genx; toomanyoldpeople

1 posted on 11/24/2004 4:34:55 PM PST by qam1
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To: qam1; ItsOurTimeNow; PresbyRev; tortoise; Fraulein; StoneColdGOP; Clemenza; malakhi; m18436572; ...
Written about Australia but it mirrors the situation here

Xer Ping

Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations (i.e. The Baby Boomers) are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.

Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.  

2 posted on 11/24/2004 4:37:44 PM PST by qam1 (McGreevy likes his butts his way, I like mine my way - so NO SMOKING BANS in New Jersey)
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To: qam1
I was listening to the Dennis Prager show today and he had a guy on talking about declining fertility rates.

What intrigued me was the fact that the guy said fertility rates were declining worldwide except among the very religious although this did not apply to Muslim countries as a whole.

Apparently the Latter Day Saints (and like minded folks) really will inherit the world. (Half my family is LDS so I guess I'm okay with this!)

The guy also said that declining fertility was enough of an issue that "demographics" should no longer be a causative factor in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Interesting. We have a radio guy here who always says, "You can't beat a birth rate." Maybe we don't have to!
3 posted on 11/24/2004 4:46:03 PM PST by Gingersnap
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To: qam1
btt



4 posted on 11/24/2004 4:52:33 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat)
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To: qam1

Let's face it, with life expectancy increasing, the only alternative will be to increase the age at which people retire. That is the only feasible out.


5 posted on 11/24/2004 4:53:27 PM PST by McGavin999 (George Soros just learned a very expensive lesson-America can't be bought.)
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To: qam1
Procreate or perish

Sounds like a good deal to me.

6 posted on 11/24/2004 5:04:29 PM PST by mhx
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To: qam1

7 posted on 11/24/2004 5:06:05 PM PST by traumer
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To: qam1
Procreate or Perish.

I'm going to take that as a direct order and get started right away.

8 posted on 11/24/2004 5:07:24 PM PST by the invisib1e hand (if a man lives long enough, he gets to see the same thing over and over.)
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To: the invisib1e hand

lol


9 posted on 11/24/2004 5:38:44 PM PST by atari
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To: qam1
"To avoid or delay any increase in the aged dependency ratio by just 40 years would require a net migrant inflow ... about six times the present ratio," it said.

And how would this inflated immigration rate impact Australian society as far as social values go?

10 posted on 11/24/2004 5:50:26 PM PST by Noachian (A Democrat, by definition, is a Socialist.)
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To: Gingersnap

I am a Father of five and a Grandfather of ten but I am going to Grandma tonight and tell her the importance of continuing to procreate. It is my duty .....


11 posted on 11/24/2004 6:49:52 PM PST by svxdave (Life is too short to wear a fake Rolex.)
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To: qam1

Guess with my four boys, and another baby on the way, I am doing my duty by God AND country,lol. Gotta make up for the sib who only has one, you know.

I guess a lot of folks need an instruction manual...that Nike hat pic should do nicely, imo. :)


12 posted on 11/24/2004 6:56:25 PM PST by exnavychick
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To: svxdave

"It is my duty ....."

LOL, you go sexy grampa!


13 posted on 11/24/2004 7:23:38 PM PST by jocon307 (Jihad is world wide. Jihad is serious business. We ignore global jihad at our peril.)
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