Posted on 11/17/2004 7:01:36 PM PST by neverdem
The head of New York State's Conservative Party said yesterday that it may withhold its endorsement from Gov. George E. Pataki if the governor seeks re-election in 2006, creating a new problem for Mr. Pataki even as he works to calm a feuding Republican Party.
A Conservative Party endorsement could prove pivotal if the governor were to find himself in a race against the state attorney general, Eliot Spitzer, a Democrat who has said he plans to run in two years and who has broad support throughout his party. In each of his last two elections, Mr. Pataki could have won without the Conservative ballot line. But in his uphill 1994 race against Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, the 328,605 votes Mr. Pataki received on the Conservative line helped propel him to victory.
"There has been no commitment to anybody," said Michael Long, the Conservative Party chairman, who has had a close relationship with Mr. Pataki but has recently been more critical of the governor on some spending and social issues. "I would suspect anytime now, people who have a desire to run will start talking to us."
Senator Charles E. Schumer's announcement on Monday that he would stay in Washington and not run for governor has virtually guaranteed Mr. Spitzer the Democratic nomination - barring any dramatic changes to the political landscape - and has renewed speculation about Mr. Pataki's plans.
Mr. Pataki is, at the moment, saying he wants to keep his options open. But political analysts also say it is the wrong time for Mr. Pataki to make any kind of decision, in part because it is too early and because he is faced with discontent within his own party, and some dissent from conservatives.
Mr. Pataki was once the darling of conservatives, originally running for governor on strong anti-tax and pro-death-penalty messages. But in recent years he has come under increasing attack from conservatives for the growth of state spending under his leadership.
Republicans say that Mr. Long may be posturing, hoping to pull the governor back to the right. But the Conservative Party leader has demonstrated his willingness to spurn Republican candidates and allow Democrats to win. For example, Mr. Long refused to endorse several Republicans this year, including Nancy Larraine Hoffmann, the Syracuse-area state senator who was defeated by a Democrat after the Conservative Party ran its own candidate.
"The reality is, we have to get spending under control in the state, and taxes have to be lowered," Mr. Long said in explaining why someone other than Mr. Pataki could appear on his party's ballot line in 2006.
But as Mr. Pataki deals with the political brush fires around him, he and his advisers are still considering his political options. Advisers said the possibilities include challenging Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, which would endear Mr. Pataki to national Republicans should he seek the nomination for president; and not running for re-election, to focus on a presidential bid.
But Mr. Pataki's advisers, and supporters, also said that he might be more likely to run for re-election now that Mr. Schumer has decided not to run for governor. Republican political operatives said that in their view the attorney general, Eliot Spitzer, is not as formidable an opponent as Mr. Schumer, either in vote-getting or fund-raising abilities. "I think he could beat Spitzer," said John McLaughlin, a Republican political consultant. "He is battle tested, he is proven and he has a proven record of success as governor."
Mr. Spitzer's supporters see him winning handily over the governor, coming to the race with a national reputation for attacking corruption in the financial industry, and a campaign war chest expected to exceed $8 million by the end of the year.
"I would be surprised if Pataki ran again, because I don't think he wants to go out a loser," said Dan Cantor, executive director of the Working Families Party, which has endorsed Mr. Spitzer in the past and could give him an edge with its ballot line in 2006.
In recent days, Mr. Pataki has faced a string of bad publicity, and griping by former supporters, which may also have undermined any chance he had of getting a presidential cabinet appointment, though he has insisted that he has no interest in working in Washington at this point.
The criticism has been stinging at times. "Bequeathing New Yorkers with a hamstrung, impotent, enfeebled Republican Party will be the Pataki era's greatest legacy," George Marlin wrote in an opinion article in The New York Post. In his first term, Mr. Pataki counted Mr. Marlin as an ally and appointed him executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
Mr. Pataki and his aides say that he has worked hard to build a grass-roots organization and that the griping is restricted to a few naysayers. But polls also show that Mr. Pataki has a problem, according to Lee M. Miringoff, president of the National Council of Public Polls and director of the Marist College polls. Mr. Miringoff said that Marist polls of registered voters show that for many months the governor's approval rating has been below 50 percent - and that recently it has hovered in the low 40's.
"Obviously, in electoral terms, 50 percent is an important place to be," Mr. Miringoff said. "When you go below 50, then it starts attracting a lot more attention in terms of people wondering whether you are going to run again, whether people are going to run against you."
Lisa Dewald Stoll, the governor's director of communications, said that for now Mr. Pataki is still focused on being the best governor he can be, and that she has no doubt conservatives will continue to support him.
"Since the governor hasn't announced his intention to run for re-election, it's not surprising that the Conservative Party hasn't decided who they will support," Ms. Stoll said. "Having said that, we are confident that the governor will have the full and total support of the Conservative Party if he decides to run for re-election or seek any other office."
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if the conservatives run a third party candidate, he will get very few votes. there is a big difference between Pataki getting so many votes on the conservative line - and those same people voting for a third party candidate on that line.
still, it will be very hard for pataki to beat Spitzer. I don't think he can do it, that's why Pataki should run for Senate.
I predict Hitlery Clintstone will run for Governor of NY in '06
FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.
he will not run again.
Bruno is back and so is silver
dems gaining seats, this state is a lost frikin cause
Patakifeller actually thinks he can be President. He won't even make it to the Iowa straw poll.
I predict you are right and thundercalves will lose.
because Hillary is a much weaker statewide candidate then Spitzer. That's what Pataki should be looking at now. Who can he beat? Can he beat Spitzer? Can he beat Schumer? No way. Can he beat Hillary? Yes, she's the weakest statewide office holder. If he were smart, he would see this, and make his move against her.
I think he would like to be a VP candidate, but he really has no chance at that either, as the ticket is not going to win NYS with Pataki as VP, so why take him?
LOL! I'm surprised it took you even this long to show up in an anti-Pataki thread. :D
At least our guy is ahead by 261 votes.
When will you be back here, even for a visit?
I may be there for Memorial Day weekend. Of course, If someone offers me a job...
Pataki for Senate!
Well, be sure to let us know when you're going to be here again!
Pataki in the senate would make Arlen Specter look like Jesse Helms
Fine, stick with Hillary.
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