2006 Senate races: looking ahead

me

[dufekin]

Vanity post; no thread.

NOTE: We also need to look at governor's races.

[yeetch!]

Burns is largely without personality and perhaps not too bright. However, he has survived in the past and may well do so again since there is very little negativity to him. It is a concern that the Rats have taken the governorship and other state offices.

[NYURepublican]

What about Govenor Whitman? Think she could take out Corzine? or Unknown democrat (I expect Corzine to run for Gov and win)

[silent_jonny]

Whitman is an idiot! Corzine and the DNC would shake her like a rag doll.

[NYURepublican]

heh I was trying to think of a well known Republican in NJ....

There aren't many except previous candidates who were all idiots too...

[dufekin]

Two years ago, Daschle looked beatable--because Thune almost defeated Johnson, Daschle received only 63% of the vote in 1998, and Bush would be on the ballot in 2004. Bush is very popular in South Dakota, and his presence on the ballot would produce coattails. I'm not sure which category Daschle would fit, but I doubt he looked less vulnerable then than Senator Clinton (D-NY) does today.

And yes, it's theoretically possible to defeat everyone on the list, but in the absence of a major scandal a la Toricelli, it's nearly impossible for Republicans of any stripe to defeat popular liberal Democrats in liberal Democrat states. Absent any open seats, we need to concentrate on those senators near the bottom of the list (in both columns).

[mombrown1]

Democrats who need to show their support for GWB if they want to keep their jobs.

Bill Nelson
Herb Kohl
Ben Nelson
Robert Byrd (WV went for Bush by almost 7 pts.)
Kent Conrad
Mark Dayton

That's enough to pass the judges and end filibusters.

Freepers in these states need to make sure your guys understand, we got rid of Tommy boy we can get rid of you.

[ConservativeGreek]

He was defeated in a heavily Republican state!

[NYURepublican]

I hope the GOP is already in full 2006 mode. Im sure they are, but they have to keep their organization up.

Viable candidates in NJ, NY, etc need to appear. If Guiliani isnt given a cabident, we can all expect him to run against Hill.

[nickcarraway]

I disgree. Schwarzenegger is way better suited to be a senator. The problem is he going to be running for governor in 2006. Maybe he can run against Boxer 2010. Now, if only Maria can convinve him to be pro-life.

[kingu]

Senator Jeb Bush sounds like a pretty easy win; the question is if Jeb would go for it, or if he's sick and tired of politics and decides to go back to real estate.

[kingu]

To turn California into a red state, we need a governor and a senator -- mind suggesting some good names?

[deport]

Robert Byrd (WV went for Bush by almost 7 pts.)

---

My guess is that Senator Byrd will have the seat as long as he wishes....

In 2000 President Bush got 52% of the vote and was ahead by 6%...... Senator Byrd got 78% of the vote and was ahead of his Republilcan challenger by 58%.....

He's not vunerable, imo.

[dufekin]

Can anyone think of a "star candidate" to replace Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND)? The token opposition to Senator Byron Dorgan--with Bush on the ballot--was not inspiring.

[sam_whiskey]

You're right about Lugar---but will he retire soon?? Maybe Dan Coats could get back in the game...

[Dan from Michigan]

Mike Rogers or Candice Miller could take out Debbie Stabmenow.

Granholm's up as well.

[Keith]

This is just the kind of thread I have been looking for...

If we have learned anything from the hyperbole coming from the Rats this week, it's that their leadership has learned NOTHING.

so, assuming that Rove will kick things into even higher gear, Iraq will be better, as will the economy, here is what is more likely.

Dem vulnerables:

Clinton (only if Rudy runs)
Dayton (Only if a live human runs)
Stabenow (Only if a friend of the unions runs)
Kohl (Go Tommy Thompson!)
Conrad (Get Tommy D all over his a$$ in RedStateland)

Dem vulnerable against the right opponent:

Teddy the Swimmer (Can you say Mitt Romney?)
Byrd (His opposition to Bush, in a state Bush won handily...will we hear Byrd say "Can I get me a huntin' license here?")
Sarbanes (if he ever shows up...)
Nelson of FL (GO Jeb Go)
Corzine (Go Christie!)

Pubbie who are vulnerable:
Chafee (that's why all the squawking)

Living in Blue State land:

Snowe
Santorum
Chaffee


Guys, there is NO reason why we shouldn't be able to pick up more seats. There is almost NO way that the Dems can grab back control. THis is one of the reasons it was so hard for Rove to get more good Pubbies to run...the prospect of being a freshman senator in the minority.

Frist and Allen are likely to run for president in 08, but would want their seats to do it from. Is Burns that weak? Talent is a cinch...he only had a tough run because the Carnahans are like the Kennedys in this state. Their children were about the only Dem winners in this state...Missouri gets "redder" every day.

The challenge is to get strong candidates to commit to run against Dem senators in RedStates, and fund them well...the Prez has shown that he is a good fundraiser with the locals, so I feel good about our chances.

I can see how we can get AWFULLY close to 60 by 08...

so Chaffee is blowing smoke...he has to say what he says in order to survive in BlueRhodeIsland...

And Pubbies do MUCH better in offyear elections...

[silent_jonny]

There aren't many except previous candidates who were all idiots too...

That's a problem in both parties--we keep using leftovers. We need to find new faces, new voices.

[Keith]

Chris Shays could win in CT...he has been a good supporter of the president...

[CGTRWK]

Tom Daschle was a far left Dem in a conservative leaning, mostly rural state that hasn't gone Dem for President since 1936. The surprise wasn't that we finally managed to vote him out, it's that he was in there in the first place.

Situations like this are our main oppurtunities for making pickups. In 2006, we ought to have a good shot at knocking off Conrad and both Nelsons. We probably will not get Byrd unless he retires, because he has brough in too much pork. But he won't last forever.

By 2012, unless the RNC screws up badly there will not be any Dem senators south of Maryland.

[bilhosty]

I understand George Allen might be vulnerable in Virginia, only because Mark Warner might run. I am sure their are fine candidates for the GOP in Tennessee. I understand Zach Wamp and Ed Bryant are considering running. I don't think keeping Burns seat would be too hard since their is an at large GOP congressmen who would like to move up. Burns has had his share of close races, I would think Rehberg, or whatever his name is, would actually be a stronger candidate. I personally believe running a Rino in heavily Dem states where only same can win should be pursued it is better to have Moderate or even Liberal Republicans then have Liberal Democrats. If we could take back some of those seats with Rino's it would put the Senate out of reach of Dem's. I think Gov Johannes might run in Nebraska If so I think that would be a very vulnerable seat.

I have heard that Talent and Nelson of Florida are in trouble. Does anyone know why?